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© 2015, Fiatech By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. April 15 th, 2015 The Pit and the Pendulum On Behalf of Fiatech.

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Presentation on theme: "© 2015, Fiatech By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. April 15 th, 2015 The Pit and the Pendulum On Behalf of Fiatech."— Presentation transcript:

1 © 2015, Fiatech By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. April 15 th, 2015 The Pit and the Pendulum On Behalf of Fiatech

2 © 2015, Fiatech Dawn of the Dead

3 © 2015, Fiatech Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing Countries Projected 2014, Annual Percent Change (for available nations) RankCountryRegion% RankCountryRegion% 1 Turkmenistan Central Asia 10.1 169 Netherlands Europe 0.6 2 Chad Africa 9.6 170 France Europe 0.4 3 Mongolia Asia 9.1 171 Brazil South America 0.3 4 Democratic Republic of the Congo Africa 8.6 172 Russia Eastern Europe 0.2 5 Côte d'Ivoire Africa 8.5 173 Solomon Islands Pacific Islands 0.1 6 Myanmar Southeast Asia 8.5 174 San Marino Europe 0.0 7 Mozambique Africa 8.3 175 Italy Europe -0.2 8 Ethiopia Africa 8.2 176 Finland Northern Europe -0.2 9 Sierra Leone Africa 8.0 177 Serbia Eastern Europe -0.5 10 China Asia 7.4 178 Barbados Caribbean -0.6 11 Lao P.D.R. Southeast Asia 7.4 179 Croatia Eastern Europe -0.8 12 The Gambia Africa 7.4 180 St. Lucia Caribbean -1.1 13 Tanzania Africa 7.2 181 Argentina South America -1.7 14 Cambodia Southeast Asia 7.2 182 Equatorial Guinea Africa -2.5 15 Uzbekistan Central Asia 7.0 183 Iraq Middle East -2.7 16 Sri Lanka Southeast Asia 7.0 184 Venezuela South America -3.0 17 Nigeria Africa 7.0 185 Cyprus Europe -3.2 18 Mauritania Africa 6.8 186 Ukraine Eastern Europe -6.5 19 Burkina Faso Africa 6.7 187 South Sudan Africa -12.3 20 Panama Central America 6.6 188 Libya Middle East -19.8 Source: International Monetary Fund, October 2014 WEO Database

4 © 2015, Fiatech Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2015 Projected* Source: International Monetary Fund, January 2015 WEO Update *Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during December 8, 2014–January 5, 2015.

5 © 2015, Fiatech What Lies Beneath Source: BEA, BLS, S&P Case-Shiller, Yahoo! Finance *Through June 2014

6 © 2015, Fiatech Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Median Weekly Earnings, Full-Time U.S. Workers* 2000Q4 through 2014Q4 *SA, Constant 1982-1984 dollars (adjusted to CPI-U); Wage and salary workers ages 16+

7 © 2015, Fiatech Average Hourly Earnings: Construction Workers February 2007 – February 2015 *1982-1984 Dollars, S.A. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

8 © 2015, Fiatech Source: Moody’s Economy Recession Watch as of December 2014

9 © 2015, Fiatech Source: Pew analysis of U.S. Census Bureau’s quarterly tax revenue data, as adjusted by the Rockefeller Institute of Government Tax Collections in 2014Q2 vs. Each State’s Peak* Real tax revenue still lower in 29 states since recession *Adjusted for inflation

10 © 2015, Fiatech Industrial Production February 2001 through February 2015 Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

11 © 2015, Fiatech Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2014Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

12 © 2015, Fiatech Contributions to GDP Growth by Component 2013Q4 – 2014Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

13 © 2015, Fiatech Invasion of the Body Snatchers

14 © 2015, Fiatech March 2015: +126K Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through March 2015 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

15 © 2015, Fiatech National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector March 2014 v. March 2015 All told 3,128K Jobs gained Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

16 © 2015, Fiatech National Construction Employment Monthly Net Change March 2000 through March 2015 Industry Sector15-Mar15-Feb14-Mar1-net12-net12-% Construction6,344.06,345.06,062.0282.04.7 Residential Building691.5687.8644.83.746.77.2 Nonresidential Building723.4722.8691.50.631.94.6 Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction933.7937.6904.3-3.929.43.3 Specialty Trade Contractors3,995.13,997.23,821.8-2.1173.34.5 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

17 © 2015, Fiatech Source: Chart created by Matt Stevens (Stevens Construction Institute) using data from U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, published by the National Society of Professional Engineers, June 2014. U.S. Construction Productivity Value of Construction Put in Place per Employee 1993-2013

18 © 2015, Fiatech Source: IT Key Metrics Data 2014, Gartner Benchmark Analytics IT Spending as a Percent of Revenue, By Industry

19 © 2015, Fiatech Evidence of a Construction Labor Shortage: Hires v. Job Openings February 2012 through February 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey

20 © 2015, Fiatech Source: JBKnowledge, 2014 Construction Technology Report Limits to Adoption* *Percentages do not round to 100 (respondents could select multiple responses) Other Responses  Time to investigate and approve  Data security concerns  Data integration and compatibility with existing systems  Lacking proof of ROI “What prevents your company from adopting new technology most often”?

21 © 2015, Fiatech State-by-state Growth in Construction Jobs February 2014 v. February 2015 *Construction, Mining, and Logging are included in one industry. STATE Year-over-year Ch. (‘000) STATE Year-over-year Ch. (‘000) STATE Year-over- year Ch. (‘000) TEXAS44.6IDAHO5.0CONNECTICUT0.9 CALIFORNIA43.4NORTH DAKOTA4.8MONTANA0.9 FLORIDA29.6OHIO4.7ARIZONA0.8 WASHINGTON18.0MISSOURI4.3NEW MEXICO0.8 COLORADO16.9SOUTH CAROLINA4.3NEW HAMPSHIRE0.7 NORTH CAROLINA15.5ARKANSAS4.1VERMONT0.6 NEW JERSEY14.5MASSACHUSETTS3.7WYOMING0.4 ILLINOIS13.1MARYLAND*3.7HAWAII*0.4 MICHIGAN11.8OREGON3.3RHODE ISLAND0.2 NEW YORK11.4VIRGINIA3.3DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA*0.2 UTAH8.3NEVADA3.2ALASKA0.1 WISCONSIN7.5OKLAHOMA2.7NEBRASKA*0.1 TENNESSEE*7.0KANSAS2.6DELAWARE*0.0 IOWA6.7LOUISIANA2.4MAINE-0.3 GEORGIA6.0ALABAMA1.6WEST VIRGINIA-0.7 PENNSYLVANIA5.8SOUTH DAKOTA*1.4INDIANA-1.5 KENTUCKY5.7MINNESOTA1.3MISSISSIPPI-4.4 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

22 © 2015, Fiatech U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 2.3% Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) February 2014 v. February 2015 Percent Change R ANK S TATE %R ANK S TATE %R ANK S TATE % 1UTAH4.217TENNESSEE2.234IOWA1.4 2NORTH DAKOTA4.019WISCONSIN2.134NEW JERSEY1.4 3GEORGIA3.820DELAWARE2.034OKLAHOMA1.4 4FLORIDA3.520INDIANA2.034VERMONT1.4 5OREGON3.420NEW MEXICO2.039PENNSYLVANIA1.3 6COLORADO3.323ALABAMA1.839SOUTH DAKOTA1.3 6IDAHO3.323DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA1.841HAWAII1.2 6NORTH CAROLINA3.323MARYLAND1.842NEBRASKA1.1 6SOUTH CAROLINA3.323NEW YORK1.842VIRGINIA1.1 10CALIFORNIA3.127MASSACHUSETTS1.744ALASKA1.0 10NEVADA3.128CONNECTICUT1.644LOUISIANA1.0 10TEXAS3.128OHIO1.646MISSISSIPPI0.9 10WASHINGTON3.130KANSAS1.547NEW HAMPSHIRE0.8 14ARIZONA2.830MINNESOTA1.547RHODE ISLAND0.8 15ARKANSAS2.530MISSOURI1.549MONTANA0.7 16KENTUCKY2.330WYOMING1.550WEST VIRGINIA0.3 17MICHIGAN2.234ILLINOIS1.451MAINE0.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

23 © 2015, Fiatech U.S. Unemployment Rate February 2015: 5.5% March 2015: 5.5% Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) February 2015 RANKSTATE%RANKSTATE%RANKSTATE% 1NEBRASKA2.718DELAWARE4.835ILLINOIS6.0 2NORTH DAKOTA2.918WISCONSIN4.835NEW MEXICO6.0 3SOUTH DAKOTA3.420MASSACHUSETTS4.937WEST VIRGINIA6.1 3UTAH3.421MAINE5.038ALASKA6.3 5MINNESOTA3.722OHIO5.138GEORGIA6.3 6IDAHO3.923KENTUCKY5.238RHODE ISLAND6.3 6NEW HAMPSHIRE3.923PENNSYLVANIA5.238WASHINGTON6.3 6OKLAHOMA3.925NORTH CAROLINA5.342CONNECTICUT6.4 6VERMONT3.926ARKANSAS5.542NEW JERSEY6.4 10WYOMING4.026MARYLAND5.544ARIZONA6.5 11HAWAII4.126MISSOURI5.545SOUTH CAROLINA6.6 11IOWA4.129FLORIDA5.645TENNESSEE6.6 13COLORADO4.230ALABAMA5.847CALIFORNIA6.7 13KANSAS4.230NEW YORK5.847LOUISIANA6.7 15MONTANA4.330OREGON5.849MISSISSIPPI7.0 15TEXAS4.333INDIANA5.950NEVADA7.1 17VIRGINIA4.733MICHIGAN5.951DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA7.8 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

24 © 2015, Fiatech Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) February 2015 RankMSAUR RankMSAUR 1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area4.010 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area5.5 2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area4.112 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area5.8 3 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area4.312 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area5.8 4 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area4.514St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area6.0 5Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA4.815 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area6.1 6 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area4.916 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area6.3 7 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area5.317 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area6.5 7San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area5.318 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area6.7 9Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area5.419 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area6.8 10 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area5.520 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area7.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

25 © 2015, Fiatech Nightmare on Elm Street

26 © 2015, Fiatech 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates April 1995 through April 2015* Source: Freddie Mac *Week ending 4/9/2015

27 © 2015, Fiatech U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through February 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

28 © 2015, Fiatech U.S. Housing Starts February 1999 through February 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

29 © 2015, Fiatech U.S. Homeownership Source: U.S. Census Bureau

30 © 2015, Fiatech U.S. Private New Multifamily Construction February 1993 through February 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

31 © 2015, Fiatech U.S. Housing Building Permits February 1999 through February 2015 February 2015: 1 Unit: 620K 5 Units or more: 445K Source: U.S. Census Bureau

32 © 2015, Fiatech S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros January 2015, 12-Month Percentage Change Source: Standard & Poor’s

33 © 2015, Fiatech Source: The American Institute of Architects Architecture Billings Index January 2008 through February 2015 February 2015: 50.4

34 © 2015, Fiatech Nonresidential Construction Put-in-Place December 2006 through February 2015 Dec. 08: $697.4 billion Feb. 15: $611.6 billion -12.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

35 © 2015, Fiatech National Nonresidential Construction Spending by Subsector February 2014 v. February 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

36 © 2015, Fiatech Inputs to Construction PPI March 2001 – March 2015 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

37 © 2015, Fiatech Psycho

38 © 2015, Fiatech Sales Growth by Type of Business March 2014 v. March 2015* *March 2015 advanced estimate Source: U.S. Census Bureau

39 © 2015, Fiatech Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through February 2015 Source: Conference Board

40 © 2015, Fiatech Tell-Tale Heart Economy gained momentum over the course of last year; Tailwinds included booming stock market, lower gasoline prices, stabilizing global economy, and consumer expenditures on interest rate sensitive durable goods like autos; The current year is associated with greater certainty regarding monetary policy – that helps; The world is not perfect - black swan threats remain: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP; Market is nervous, but perhaps for the wrong reasons; and More people benefit from lower oil prices than are hurt – more contractors and developers are helped than hurt – frankly, low oil prices just don’t make me that nervous.

41 © 2015, Fiatech Thank You Contact & More Information Follow us on Twitter @SagePolicyGroup You can always reach me at abasu@sagepolicy.com abasu@sagepolicy.com Please look for updates of information at www.sagepolicy.com. www.sagepolicy.com Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE) Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.

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