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By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. November 17, 2008 Daytime Drama On Behalf of the Maryland Association of Realtors.

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Presentation on theme: "By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. November 17, 2008 Daytime Drama On Behalf of the Maryland Association of Realtors."— Presentation transcript:

1 By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. November 17, 2008 Daytime Drama On Behalf of the Maryland Association of Realtors

2 As the World Turns (more slowly)

3 Historic and Projected World Output Growth, 2004 through 2009* Source: International Monetary Fund *2008-2009 data are projections

4 Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas, 2008 Source: International Monetary Fund

5 2008 Political and Economic Risk Map Source: Oxford Analytica

6 NYMEX Crude Oil Future Prices in U.S. Dollars June 1995 through November 3, 2008 Source: Energy Information Administration Oil Futures Future Prices are the lowest since May 2007 at $63.91 as of Nov. 3.

7 Global Risk Factors Source: International Monetary Fund Chart indicates relative contributions to risks to global growth WEO = World Economic Outlook (IMF) Upside Risk to Global Growth Downside Risk to Global Growth

8 Top 12 Stock Exchanges YTD Growth, as of Oct. 23 Close RankExchangeIndexYTD % Change 7Shanghai SEShanghai Composite-66.6% 11Hong Kong ExchangesHang Seng Index-50.5% 4Tokyo SENikkei 225-44.7% 10Borsa ItalianaMIBTel-44.5% 6Frankfurt SEDAX-44.0% 8Bolsa De MedridMadrid General-42.5% 5EuronextCAC 40-41.0% 2NasdaqNASDAQ Composite-39.5% 3London SEFTSE 100-36.7% 1NYSE GroupDJI A-34.5% 9TSX GroupS&P TSX Composite-33.2% 12Swiss ExchangeSwiss Market-30.5% Source: Yahoo! Finance

9 Days of Our Lives

10 Dow Days Afternoon Week ofMon. Open-Close Tues. Open-Close Wed. Open-Close Thurs. Open-Close Fri. Open-Close Weekly Change 9/22-9/27-378.73-190.52-24.85194.89124.09-275.12 (-2.4%) 9/29-10/3-774.17479.08-16.33-342.69-158.58-812.69 (-7.3%) 10/6-10/10-367.02-508.31-179.13-678.91-117.48-1,733.37 (-18.1%) 10/13-10/17925.19-77.98-724.00402.22-123.13389.8 (4.6%) 10/20-10/24413.13-133.90-508.63171.48-312.30-473.35 (-5.3%) Source: Google Finance DOW 9/22: Opened at 11,394.42 10/24: Closed at 8,387.95, Down 26.4%

11 Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index October 2001 through October 2008 Source: Conference Board

12 Retail & Food Services Sales January 2001 through October 2008 Source: Dismal.com

13 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through September 2008 Source: Freddie Mac

14 U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through September 2008 Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau

15 U.S. New Residential Construction January 1999 through September 2008 Source: Economy.com

16 Current Hot Metro Housing Markets (150) Annual Existing Single-Family Home Price Appreciation 2007Q2 vs. 2008Q2 Source: National Association of Realtors U.S.: -7.6% in 2008Q2 Boston: -10.8% New York: -5.3% Philly: -3.0% Baltimore: -4.5% Washington: -16.8%

17 Worst Performing Metro Housing Markets (150) Annual Existing Single-Family Home Price Appreciation 2007Q2 vs. 2008Q2 Source: National Association of Realtors U.S.: -7.6% in 2008Q2

18 Maryland Median Home Prices, Oct. 08 vs. Oct. 07 RankCounty%ChngRankCounty%Chng 1Garrett County9.613Talbot County-10.3 2Harford County2.214St. Mary’s County-10.8 3Baltimore City1.414Montgomery County-10.8 4Anne Arundel County-3.016Charles County-12.3 5Dorchester County-6.017Somerset County-13.9 6Carroll County-6.118Prince George’s County-14.0 7Baltimore County-6.419Frederick County-18.3 8Washington County-6.520Calvert County-19.5 9Howard County-7.421Caroline County-24.1 10Wicomico County-7.522Kent County-24.8 11Queen Anne’s County-9.823Worcester County-25.7 12Cecil County-10.024Allegany County-27.5 Maryland-7.1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

19 Maryland Home Sales, Oct. 08 vs. Oct. 07 RankCounty%ChngRankCounty%Chng 1Harford County19.013Charles County-19.8 2Washington County7.214Allegany County-22.4 3Montgomery County7.115Baltimore City-23.4 4Howard County-6.415Garrett County-23.4 5Frederick County-9.117Cecil County-25.8 6St. Mary’s County-11.118Caroline County-26.1 7Kent County-11.819Queen Anne’s County-26.8 8Talbot County-12.220Dorchester County-32.0 9Anne Arundel County-13.221Worcester County-33.3 10Prince George’s County-13.422Carroll County-36.4 11Baltimore County-17.123Wicomico County-43.8 12Calvert County-18.124Somerset County-56.3 Maryland-12.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

20 Active Housing Inventory by Suburban MD, October 2007 vs. October2008 Maryland = Oct. 2007: 49,136; Oct. 2008: 49,125 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors

21 Active Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction, October 2007 vs. October 2008 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Oct. 2007: 49,136; Oct. 2008: 49,125

22 Mortgage Banker’s Association Delinquency Rates, Prime Mortgage Loans, 2005Q1 through 2008Q2 Source: Economy.com The delinquency rate does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process was 1.42 percent of all prime loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter, an increase of 22 basis points from the first quarter of 2007.

23 Mortgage Banker’s Association Delinquency Rates, Subprime Mortgage Loans, 2005Q1 through 2008Q2 Source: Economy.com The delinquency rate does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of subprime loans in the foreclosure process was 18.67 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fsecond quarter, decrease of 12 basis points from the first quarter of 2008.

24 Maryland Auto Sales Sep. 2001- Oct. 2008 Source: Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration Oct. 08 New Car Sales: 23,216, down 29.6% from Oct. 07 Oct. 08 Used Car Sales: 50,727, down 14.5% from Oct. 07

25 CPI September 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI : +4.9% Core CPI*: +2.5% *Core CPI: All items less food and energy

26 U.S. Trade Deficit, January 2001 through September 2008 Source: Dismal.com

27 Value of the Dollar (Broad Dollar Index) January 1999 through October 2008 Broad Dollar Index: a weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. trading partners. Source: Federal Reserve Board

28 U.S. Federal Budget Deficit, 1995-2010* *2007-2010 data are projections Source: Congressional Budget Office

29 Guiding Light

30 Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2008Q3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2008Q3: -0.3%

31 Contributions to GDP Growth by Component, 2008Q3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

32 Source: Economy.com, Bureau of Labor Statistics Net Change in U.S. Jobs January 2000 through October 2008 10/08: -240k Over the last 12 months (Oct.. to Oct.) the U.S. lost 1,078k jobs

33 National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups October 2007 v. October 2008 Absolute Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics -1,078k All Told Bush Scorecard Private Sector: +2,769,000 Public Sector: +1,661,000 Total: +4,430,000

34 Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups September 2007 v. September 2008 Absolute Change MD Total: +28.6K; +1.1% US Total: - 519K; -0.4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

35 Baltimore MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) September 2007 v. September 2008 Absolute Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Baltimore MSA Total: +8.4K; +0.6% MD Total: +28.2K; +1.1% US Total: -722K; -0.5%

36 Washington, D.C. MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) September 2007 v. September 2008 Absolute Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics DC MSA Total: +35.4K; +1.5% US Total: -722K; -0.5%

37 Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) September 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics RankStateRateRankStateRateRankStateRate 1South Dakota3.218Idaho5.035Missouri6.4 2Wyoming3.318Wisconsin5.035Oregon6.4 3Nebraska3.520Texas5.137Georgia6.5 3Utah3.521Colorado5.238Florida6.6 5North Dakota3.621Louisiana5.239Alaska6.8 6Oklahoma3.821Vermont5.240Illinois6.9 7New Mexico4.024Alabama5.341District of Columbia7.0 8New Hampshire4.124Massachusetts5.341North Carolina7.0 9Iowa4.226Maine5.643Kentucky7.1 10Virginia4.327Pennsylvania5.744Ohio7.2 11Hawaii4.528New Jersey5.844Tennessee7.2 11West Virginia4.528New York5.846Nevada7.3 13Maryland4.628Washington5.846South Carolina7.3 13Montana4.631Arizona5.948California7.7 15Delaware4.831Minnesota5.949Mississippi7.8 15Kansas4.833Connecticut6.150Michigan8.7 17Arkansas4.934Indiana6.251Rhode Island8.8 U.S. Unemployment Rate: September 08=6.1%

38 MD County Unemployment Rates, Sept. 2008 RankCountyUERankCountyUE 1Howard County3.313Kent County4.6 2Montgomery County3.314Baltimore County4.7 3Carroll County3.515Prince George’s County4.8 4Calvert County3.615Worcester County4.8 5Frederick County3.717Wicomico County5.1 5St. Mary’s County3.718Caroline County5.2 7Charles County3.919Cecil County5.3 8Anne Arundel County4.020Allegany County5.6 8Queen Anne’s County4.021Washington County5.7 8Talbot County4.022Dorchester County6.2 11Garrett County4.123Somerset County6.6 11Harford County4.124Baltimore City7.1 Maryland4.6United States6.1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

39 Search for Tomorrow National economy set to slow as housing market weakness continues and as employers become considerably more defensive; Second half of year much much worse than the first; $700 billion represented a cap whereby federal government could choose assets it wants to buy through reverse auction (lowest offered price wins); & Washington, D.C. is the new financial capital of North America.

40 Thank You You can always reach me at abasu@sagepolicy.com abasu@sagepolicy.com If you appreciate this type of information and would like regular updates, please see our newsletter service at www.spgtrend.com www.spgtrend.com Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE) Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.

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