Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Longitudinal perspectives on the UK’s minority ethnic groups Lucinda Platt ISER, University of Essex

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Overview Why are longitudinal perspectives important in ethnicity research? Challenges for research Data opportunities Some examples –Intergenerational social mobility –Benefit dynamics –Worklessness transitions Issues and future plans and possibilities

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Why are longitudinal perspectives important? help us to understand about group processes and profiles and trajectories ‘ethnic’ dimension to longitudinal research and developments in research (e.g. understanding poverty dynamics, extent of poverty persistence, social mobility and intergenerational transmission) informative not only about group but also potential to illuminate (and complicate) our understanding of wider social processes

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Challenges for research Meaning and coherence of groups Diversity between groups Small sample sizes in many data sets Pooling possible for some cross-sectional studies but not longitudinal (except short panel in LFS)

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Data opportunities ONS Longitudinal Study Administrative data: e.g. benefits; PLASC –and linkage? Short panel in LFS Millennium Cohort Study LSYPE For the future: Understanding Society: The UK Household Longitudinal Study

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Measuring ethnicity Ethnic group – census categories, or variants (Country of birth) (Parents’ country of birth) (Religion) [Language] [National identity] [‘Britishness’] [Citizenship]

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Examples 1.Intergenerational social mobility 2.Benefit dynamics 3.Workless household transitions 4.Low income transitions

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Example 1: Intergenerational social mobility Using the ONS Longitudinal Study Social mobility informative about –different dimensions of stratification / meritocracy –evaluating expectations of class and educational processes – do they apply across groups? –does background help to explain differences between groups? –if not, what are the implications of lack of class influence?

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Data: The Longitudinal Study The ONS Longitudinal Study (LS) contains linked census and vital event data for 1 per cent of the population of England and Wales. Information from the 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses has been linked across censuses as well as information on events such as births, deaths and cancer registrations. The original LS sample included 1971 Census information for people born on one of four selected dates in a calendar year. These four dates were used to update the sample at the 1981, 1991 and 2001 censuses and to add new members between censuses. New LS members enter the study through birth and immigration. Data are not usually linked to a member after their death or after de-registration from the NHS Central Register but these members' records remain available for analysis. Census information is also included for all people enumerated in the same household as an LS member, but only information on LS members is linked over time.

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Ethnicity and social mobility Without own educationWith own education Caribbean.306 (.076)***-.037 (.081) Black African.469 (.246)*-.001 (.268) Indian.460 (.068)***.105 (.069) Pakistani-.525 (.103)***-.792 (.111)*** Bangladeshi-.274 (.245)-.465 (.237)* Chinese and other.491 (.106)***.078 (.109) White migrant.318 (.044)***.142 (.047)** Sample member’s qualifications (base is 0) Lower (level 1)1.013 (.027)*** Middle (level 2)1.466 (.027)*** Further (level 3+)2.765 (.028)*** Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, adapted from Platt (2007)

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Ethnicity and class Ethnic group – origin class (base is white non-migrant –working class) Without own education With own education White NM - service.559 (.018)***.341 (.020)*** Caribbean - service.258 (.188)-.120 (.199) Caribbean - working.410 (.088)***.128 (.095) Indian - service1.00 (.189)***.486 (.175)** Indian working.451 (.080)***.113 (.081) Pakistani service.151 (.403)-.511 (.369) Pakistani working-.461 (.124)***-.654 (.135)*** White migrant service.674 (.106)***.205 (.114) White migrant working.361(.056)***.166(.059)** Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, adapted from Platt (2007)

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Interacting education & ethnicity (1) Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, adapted from Platt (2007)

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Interacting education & ethnicity (2) Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, adapted from Platt (2007)

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Example 2: Benefit dynamics in Birmingham Using Housing Benefit / Council Tax Benefit data 7 quarterly extracts Estimation of exit and re-entry probabilities using discrete time models, among children in HB/CTB recipient families –Controlling for age, income support receipt, mother’s age, housing tenure, number of siblings, family structure –For exits: c.114,000 person-spells and c.18,000 exits (inflowers only) –For re-entries: c.140,000 person spells; and c.33,000 re- entries (outflowers)

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Benefit exit in Birmingham Ethnic group (baseline = white UK) Coefficient (SE) Hazard ratio (SE) P-value Bangladeshi-.18 (.08).84 (.07).034 Black Caribbean.17 (.06)1.18 (.07).007 Indian-.04 (.08).96 (.08).612 Pakistani-.02 (.05).98 (.05).655 Source: BCC HB/CTB data; adapted from Platt (2006)

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Benefit re-entry in Birmingham Ethnic group (baseline = white UK) Coefficient (SE) Hazard ratio (SE) P-value Bangladeshi.40 (.05)1.49 (.08).000 Black Caribbean.06 (.04)1.06 (.04).150 Indian.17 (.05)1.19 (.06).001 Pakistani.30 (.03)1.35 (.04).000 Source: BCC HB/CTB data; adapted from Platt (2006)

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Example 3: children’s experience of workless household over time Using ONS Longitudinal Study two extracts from the ONS Longitudinal Study: –children aged 0-5 in 1981 who are also observed in 1991 (n=33230); –children aged 0-5 in 1991 who are also observed in 2001 (n=37167) Worklessness: households, no work. Family/ household controls: whether UK born; whether mother and or father UK born; whether parents present; number of siblings; whether sibling aged under 5; change in number of siblings; change in parental marital status; whether moved; distance moved; number of cars in household; housing tenure; change in housing tenure; parents’ highest qualification; age; mother’s age. Area controls: % of ward unemployed; change in unemployment; % of ward from own ethnic group; % of ward from parent’s country of birth; change in percentage from own ethnic group; change in percentage from parent’s country of birth; proportion white British; change in proportion white British.

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Transition patterns: all groups, both cohorts Cohort 1 (81/91) % (n) Cohort 2 (91/01) % (n) Move out8.1 (2676)11.9 (4396) Move in8.2 (2729)8.0 (2917) Stay out78 (25921)69.3 (26612) Stay in5.7 (1904)10.8 (3242) ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July And by ethnic group, 1991 cohort… ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Exit at 2001 for 1991 cohort Ethnic group (selection): base= white British Simple modelWith controls on characteristics With area controls White other -ve White and Black Caribbean ns Indian +vens Pakistani -ve ns Bangladeshi -vens Black Caribbean ns Black African ns ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Entry at 2001 for 1991 cohort Ethnic group (selection): base= white British Simple modelWith controls on characteristics With area controls White other ns+ve(+ve) White and Black Caribbean +vens Indian ns Pakistani +ve Bangladeshi +ve ns Black Caribbean +vens(-ve) Black African +vens ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Example 4: Low income transitions Using the MCS, waves 1 and 2 –Measure of poverty has been constructed (below 60% of median equivalised income) –Allows mapping of poverty transitions –But missing data on income at both waves and attrition mean that transitions only observed for 63% of wave1 sample –Ethnic group based on that of mother

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Overall Income: W1 x W2 Source: MCS Wave1 and Wave 2

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Income transitions: families with young children (and CIs) Ethnic groupNot poor in both waves Not poor w1, poor w2 (entries) Poor w1, not poor w2 (exits) Poor in both waves White70 (68-72)8 (7-8)7 (7-8)15 (14-16) Mixed42 (30-55)21 (13-34)9 (4-16)28 (20-38) Indian69 (59-77)12 (7-19)9 (5-15)11 (7-17) Pakistani24 (17-32)18 (13-23)10 (7-14)48 (39-57) Bangladeshi20 (9-38)15 (8-25)13 (8-21)52 (39-65) Caribbean47 (35-60)14 (9-21)10 (5-18)29 (20-40) Black African53 (36-70)8 (3-17)8 (4-13)31 (21-44) Source: MCS Wave1 and Wave 2

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July What do we learn (returning to original motivation) Longitudinal processes are not common across groups (once we control for starting points) Current disadvantage is not just about wider social structures and backgrounds – where people start off Absolute disadvantage for some groups can be associated with family characteristics, but less so for others (‘unexplained’ component) Different stories across ethnic groups – and across measures (once relevant factors controlled). For example, –Caribbeans’ upward mobility but risks of unemployment; –Caribbean children’s faster exit from benefit; –Bangladeshi children’s slower exit from benefit and greater probability of re-entry –Pakistani children’s lower chances of upward mobility and greater chances of ending up in a workless household –High rates of poverty entry among Caribbean and mixed ethnicity families with young children as well as among Pakistani children Need for further development of frameworks of explanation and more comprehensive understanding of trajectories and experience to account for disadvantage and diversity

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Issues Issues of size versus content and of coverage of all ages. Issue relating to the definition and measurement of ethnicity and ethnic groups –ONS LS: good sample sizes, but limited variables and only observations every 10 years. Covers entire population. England and Wales only. –Administrative data: potentially continuous, but only information collected for administrative purposes. Potentially large sample sizes; but only covers those who come within scope (e.g. school children, benefit claimants). Coverage depends on data. HB data by local authority; PLASC covers England. –MCS varied content; reasonable sample sizes; but only covers currently young children (and their parent(s) and sibling). UK coverage. –LSYPE varied content; some design issues; only covers older school-age children (and their families and teachers). England only.

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Future plans (and opportunities) More to be done with MCS (now three waves) Continuing potential of ONS LS Understanding Society: The UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS)

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Understanding Society: The UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) Understanding Society is a multi-topic panel study of 40,000 households whose members will be followed over time, with annual interviews (in the first instance). It includes an ethnic minority boost, plus representation across the survey [size] questions of particular interest for ethnicity research [content] –‘ethnicity’ related questions (e.g. remittances, language use and fluency) –Other questions of interest to researchers on ethnic group experiences or differences (e.g. health and mental health, social networks, educational aspirations, self-employment etc.) UK coverage Goes into the field in January 2009 See for general information on the survey; or speak to me.

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Some sources Platt, L. (2007) ‘Making education count: the effects of ethnicity and qualifications on intergenerational social class mobility’. The Sociological Review. Platt, L. (2005) Migration and Social Mobility: The Life Chances of Britain's Minority Ethnic Communities. Bristol: The Policy Press. Platt, L. (2006) ‘Social insecurity: children and benefit dynamics’, Journal of Social Policy, 35 (3): Platt, L (2003) ‘Ethnicity and inequality: British children’s experience of means-tested benefits’, Journal of Comparative Family Studies 34 (3): 357 ‑ 377. And work in progress….

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Data sources and acknowledgements (1) The ONS Longitudinal Study The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS), in particular Julian Buxton. The above, however, bear no responsibility for the interpretation of the data. Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen’s Printer for Scotland.

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Data sources and acknowledgements (2) The Millennium Cohort Study University of London. Institute of Education. Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Millennium Cohort Study: First Survey, [computer file]. 6th Edition. Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive [distributor], March SN: University of London. Institute of Education. Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Millennium Cohort Study: Second Survey, [computer file]. 3rd Edition. Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive [distributor], March SN: I am grateful to The Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Education for the use of these data and to the UK Data Archive for making them available. They, however, bear no responsibility for the analysis or interpretation of these data.

Research Methods Festival Oxford, 2 nd July Data sources and acknowledgements (3) Anonymised extracts of Housing and Council Tax Benefit records were made available to me by Birmingham City Council. I am grateful to the BCC for access to and use of these records, and for facilitating the validation of ethnic group information. The interpretation remains my responsibility.