1. Rory Coulter (rcc46@cam.ac.uk)
Social disparities in private renting amongst young families in England and Wales,
Rory Coulter
ENHR Annual Conference, 30th June 2016

2. Has created a discourse of ‘Generation Rent’
Background
Rapid growth of private renting and continuing decline of homeownership amongst young Britons
58% to 68% of 16-24s between 2008/9 and 2013/14
31% to 45% of 25-34s (Rugg and Quilgars, 2015)
Has created a discourse of ‘Generation Rent’
Policy responses concentrate on assisting homeownership transitions

3. Background
Much of the Generation Rent debate focuses on cohort and generational inequality

4. However 2 further concerns are emerging:
Background
However 2 further concerns are emerging:
Negative impacts of private renting on families
Costs, dwelling quality, tenure security, residential stability...
Social stratification within Generation Rent
Disproportionately less advantaged young people raising families in the PRS
Ties back to older literature on stratification of housing by class and position in the labour force (Hamnett, Saunders)

5. Question and approach
To what extent has the growth of private renting amongst young families been more pronounced for those with a less advantaged class position?
Focus on 25-34s and subdivide families by type (lone parent v couple), labour force participation (dual v single earner couples) and occupational class
National Statistics Socio-Economic Classification (NS-SEC), contrasting higher managerial, administrative and professional jobs (NS-SEC 1-2) with routine & manual work (NS-SEC 5-7)

6. Data ONS Longitudinal Study of England and Wales
Compare 2001 with 2011
Select sample members aged who headed a ‘family’
census indicator coded using intra-household relationships
in this study=lone parent or couple with child(ren)
N=59690 with in 2001 and in 2011
Dependent variable codes tenure and living arrangements

7. Housing position in 2011 by family type
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis

8. % point change in housing position, 2001-11
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis

9. Multinomial model
Descriptive results do not take into account other compositional factors associated with family type
Model housing position (reference category=private tenancy) with controls to see if bivariate patterns persist
Controls: age, gender, ethnicity, health status, highest qualifications, region, inter-censal migration, parental labour force position, parental homeownership

10. Summary of main results (relative risk ratios)
Variable
Ownership
Social tenancy
Parental home
2011 dummy (ref=2001)
0.260
0.426
0.425
Family type (ref= dual NS-SEC 1-2)
Lone parent, NS-SEC 1-2
0.175
1.590
4.027
Lone parent, NS-SEC 5-7
0.074
2.196
3.088
Dual-earner, NS-SEC 5-7
0.782
2.637 *
Single-earner, NS-SEC 1-2
0.519
Single earner, NS-SEC 5-7
0.434
2.865
0.595
Interaction terms
Lone parent, NS-SEC 1-2 x 2011
Lone parent, NS-SEC 5-7 x 2011
1.713
Dual-earner, NS-SEC 5-7 x 2011
0.690
Single-earner, NS-SEC 1-2 x 2011
1.493
Single earner, NS-SEC 5-7 x 2011
0.616
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis. *=p>0.05. Base outcome=private tenancy.

11. Marginal effects of 2011 dummy on the probability of private tenancy
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis. All covariates held at observed values.

12. Predicted probabilities in 2001 and 2011
Source: ONS Longitudinal Study, own analysis. Covariates set to mean and modal values.

13. Conclusions and extensions
Increased private renting most rapid for less advantaged
Offsets trends in homeownership
Likely due to constraints and may have ramifications for a range of outcomes (eg. wealth, well-being, housing conditions)
Extensions
Panel analysis of transitions (timing, bidirectional processes)
Multilevel analysis of contextual factors

14. Acknowledgements
This research is supported by an Economic and Social Research Council Future Research Leaders award [ES/L /1]. Additional financial support has been provided by the Isaac Newton Trust.
The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme under project ES/K000365/1. I bear sole responsibility for all analyses and interpretations of the data.
Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.