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Family background and young adults’ housing outcomes, 1971-2011 Rory Coulter Housing Studies Association conference, University of York,

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Presentation on theme: "Family background and young adults’ housing outcomes, 1971-2011 Rory Coulter Housing Studies Association conference, University of York,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Family background and young adults’ housing outcomes, 1971-2011 Rory Coulter (rcc46@cam.ac.uk) Housing Studies Association conference, University of York, 09/04/15

2 Background I 1.Changing tenure patterns (households) Source: Survey of English Housing, English Housing Survey

3 Background II 1.Changing tenure patterns (households) 2.Delayed and increasingly assisted home-ownership transitions (individuals) 3.New patterns of living arrangements Boomerang children, parental safety nets, doubling up or sharing 4.Stability of ownership preferences

4 Background III Key debate concerns impact on inequality Fears that strengthening intergenerational continuities pose a threat to social mobility Two dimensions important for assessing this… 1.How absolute chances of particular housing outcomes/pathways vary by cohort & background 2.How relative chances of particular housing outcomes/pathways vary by cohort & background

5 Data Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONS LS), 1971-2011 Linked census records for 1% sample of the English and Welsh population, refreshed at each census Pros: (1) sample size, (2) timeframe covered, (3) good linkage rates Cons: (1) decennial observations, (2) linkage rates lower for young adults

6 Sample Children aged 12-14 at 1971-2001 censuses who are: Resident in a private household with 1 or 2 parents Linked at the t+1 and t+2 census CohortBornTrackedN cases 1. Baby Boomers1956-19591971, 1981, 199116642 2. Sixties Children1966-19691981, 1991, 200116502 3. Generation X1976-19791991, 2001, 201111732 4. Thatcher’s Children*1986-19892001, 201115289

7 Dependent variable Derived from comparing tenure and living arrangements (relationship to HOH/HRP) TenureLiving arrangements Self/partner HOH/HRP Child of HOH/HRP Other relation to HOH/HRP OwnerIndependent ownerNot independent: Lives with parent Not independent: Other Social tenantIndependent s.tenant Private tenantIndependent p.tenant

8 Results (1): Outcome trends (men) Source: ONS LS (own calculations)

9 Results (1): Outcome trends (women) Source: ONS LS (own calculations)

10 Results (2): Parental class Source: ONS LS (own calculations) % parents with routine NS-SEC BB (‘71)49.36 SC (‘81)32.88 GX (‘91)29.93

11 Results (2): Parental tenure (SRS) Source: ONS LS (own calculations) % parents in SRS BB (‘71)40.99 SC (‘81)30.24 GX (‘91)17.53

12 Results (3): Logistic regression models Source: ONS LS (own calculations) N cases12378 McF’s r 2 0.161 Extra controls included for region and inter-censal migration (not shown)

13 Results (3): Logistic regression models Source: ONS LS (own calculations) N cases32059 McF’s r 2 0.193 Extra controls included for region and inter-censal migration (not shown)

14 (Tentative) conclusions 1.Individual level longitudinal analysis is crucial – Both tenure and living arrangements matter for understanding housing trajectories 2.Absolute odds of housing outcomes vary by gender and have changed considerably over time – Increase in shared living a key trend – Patterns matter for cohort wealth imbalances 3.Relative odds of housing outcomes vary by family background and cohort

15 Acknowledgements This research is supported by an Economic and Social Research Council Future Research Leaders award [ES/L0094981/1]. Additional financial support has been provided by the Isaac Newton Trust. The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme under project ES/K000365/1. I bear sole responsibility for all analyses and interpretations of the data. Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

16 The derivation of 1971 and 1981 NS-SEC & Goldthorpe classes is provided in Bukodi and Neuburger (2009) “Data Note. Job and occupational histories for the NSHD 1946 Birth Cohort” as part of the ESRC Gender Network Grant, Project 1 ‘Changing occupational careers of men and women’, Reference: RES-225-25-2001. The code was kindly provided by Erzsebet Bukodi and adapted for use in the LS by Franz Buscha and Patrick Sturgis as part of the ESRC grant ‘Inter-cohort Trends in Intergenerational Mobility in England and Wales: income, status, and class (InTIME)’ [ES/K003259/1]. Acknowledgements

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