1. Sample of Anonymised Records: User Meeting Propensity to migrate by ethnic group: 1991 & 2001 Paul Norman 1, John Stillwell 2 & Serena Hussain 2 School of Geography, University of Leeds 1 ESRC RES-163-25-0032 2 ESRC RES-163-25-0028

2. Internal migration of Britain's ethnic populations John Stillwell & Serena Hussain Understand how migration intensities and patterns vary between ethnic groups at various geographical levels in 2001 and what changes can be identified between 1991 & 2001 What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends & projections for UK local areas under alternative scenarios Phil Rees, Paul Norman & Peter Boden Investigate trends in migration propensities by ethnic group & need age-specific migration rates for projections

3. Research questions … Do propensities to migrate vary by ethnic group, age, sex at the national level and for sub-national areas? How do spatial patterns of internal ethnic group migration vary with spatial distribution of ethnic populations and immigration at LAD scale, 2000-01? What are the characteristics of the origins and destinations of ethnic group migrants in 2000-01 at ward level? What other factors influence migration propensities? Have there been any changes between 1991 & 2001?

4. Specification … Stillwell & Hussain have commissioned tables from ONS, one of which is for flows at LAD scale in England & Wales: Ethnic groups consistent with ethnic group data in SMS Reasonable geographical detail but lacks information on: sex & other factors & is only for 2000-01 AgeWhiteIndian Pakistani & other South Asian Chinese African, Caribbean, Black British & other Black MixedOther 0-15 16-19 20-24 25-29 30-44 45-59 60+

5. Specification … Data sources: 1991 & 2001 Individual Licensed SAR Study population: household & communal establishment residents in England & Wales, excluding recent immigrants Close as possible to the ethnic group and age detail from the commissioned table, plus sex, migrant status and region (GOR) Derive variables consistent for 1991 & 2001 that the literature shows to be related to the propensity to migrate: Social Class Educational achievement (degree) Tenure (owners, public renters, private renters, communal) Employment status (active, unemployed, other) Health (reported limiting long-term illness)

6. Deriving variables … Ethnicity Aim1991 Indiv. SAR2001 Indiv. SARBest fit White British Irish Other White White Indian Pakistani & other South Asian Pakistani Bangladeshi Pakistani Bangladeshi Pakistani & other South Asian Chinese African, Caribbean, Black British & other Black Black African Black Caribbean Black Other Black Caribbean Black African Other Black African, Caribbean, Black British & other Black Mixed Not available White & Black Caribbean White & Black African White & Asian Other Mixed Other Other Asian Other-Other Other Asian Other

7. Deriving variables … Social Class Available in 1991, emulated in 2001 using NS-SEC Age (0-15; 16-19; 20-24; 25-29; 30-44; 45-59; 60+) Migrant status (year before census) (y/n) Educational achievement (degree) Tenure (owners, public renters, private renters) Employment status (active, unemployed, other) Health (reported limiting long-term illness)

8. Deriving variables … Government Office Region Available in 2001 SAR, needs estimating for 1991 1991 ‘areap’ 2001 ‘GOR’ Link to GOR via Centroid GOR added to 1991 individual records using ‘areap’ link

9. Contextual information 1991: economic depression, high unemployment 2001: economically buoyant, low unemployment Regional migration rates, different pattern Government Office Region1991 migration rates2001 migration rates North East7.799.10 North West7.808.63 Yorkshire & The Humber8.529.37 East Midlands8.508.67 West Midlands7.567.82 East of England9.277.78 London10.459.69 South East10.068.27 South West10.259.48 Wales7.658.43 England & Wales8.978.71

10. Modelling migration: logistic regression Outcome variable Dichotomous categorical outcome: Did / Did not migrate Model predictions to lie between 0 & 1 Explanatory variables Categorical or continuous Model outputs Odds of event compared with a ‘base’ or ‘reference’ level Can be expressed as probabilities Dale A, Fieldhouse E, Holdsworth C (2000) Analyzing Census Microdata. Arnold: London Series of models developed Simple then adding in various factors ‘Interactions’ explored

11. Modelling migration probabilities … (model n) Influences on migration (year before census) continued …

12. Modelling migration probabilities … (model n) Influences on migration (year before census) continued …

13. Modelling migration probabilities … (model n) Influences on migration (year before census) continued …

14. Modelling migration probabilities … (model n)

15. Modelling summary … Ethnicity South Asian groups less likely to migrate than White group White group propensities higher in 2001 than 1991 Chinese, Black & Other groups higher odds of migration in 1991, but less difference from White group by 2001 Other factors consistent with literature Government Office Region: complex picture Rates 1991 Rates 2001 Rates in NE from 7.79% to 9.10%

16. Using the model outputs … Modelled migration probabilities by ethnic group For forecasting scenario models Estimate single year of age & trends Corroborate from other sources

17. SARs goods & less than goods … SARs, < goods … Inconsistencies between 1991 & 2001 extracts, e.g. variable definitions, geography & different decisions by UK’s NSAs Delays for 2001 release, loss of momentum For 2011 need continuity from previous censuses Loss of variable detail down to lowest in common? SARs microdata a great resource Large sample size Extraction of study population of interest Derivation of variables & versatile crosstabulations Comparisons between 1991 & 2001 & then 2011 Modelling techniques