1. Intergenerational Social Mobility in the UK
Franz Buscha, University of Westminster
Patrick Sturgis, University of Southampton
“The ONS Longitudinal Study - 40 years old and going strong”
Royal Statistical Society, 3rd February 2015

2. Acknowledgements
Funded under ESRC secondary data analysis initiative (round 1) Joint work with Patrick Sturgis, University of Southampton The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: RES ). Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

7. Proportion of ONS-LS members for whom parental information is available
Source: ONS-LS 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011

8. Estimating intergenerational correlation using the ONS-LS
Parental
Status
Intergenerational correlation estimates, r
Child
Status
Child age
in cohort
Child age
in cohort
Child age
10-16
1971
Child age
10-16
1981
1981
Child age
Child age
10-16
1991
1991
Child age 30-36
Child age
2001
2001
Child age 30-36
2011
Child age 30-36

9. How to socio-economic position?
CAMSIS
Cambridge Social Interaction and Stratification Scale
Derived from correspondence analysis of marriage/cohabitation frequencies
Measure of occupational social status
NS-SEC National Statistics Socio-Economic Status
Occupation-based measure of social class based on employment relations
Continuous service contract, salary based, career progression V
Short-term/fixed contract to sell labour for wages based on time worked/output
INCOME
Not available in census
Requires imputation from ‘donor’ data sets.
Requires accurate income prediction models. Limited variables in ONS LS which are in potential donor surveys

10. NS-SEC Distributions 1971-2011

11. Absolute vs relative mobility
Absolute = % of people reaching higher/lower social position than their parents
Affected by changes in occupational structure over time
E.g. move from agricultural/industrial to service economy in 20th Century
But says little about inequality of opportunity or outcomes
Relative = Adjusts for changes in distribution of occupation structure over time
Speaks more to issues of equality than absolute mobility

12. Absolute mobility by year cohorts, 5 point NS-SEC scale

13. Relative mobility, 5 point NS-SEC scale

14. Relative mobility, CAMSIS correlations, age 30 to 36

15. We also looked at the impact of education reforms on social mobility

17. Absent fathers

18. Working Mothers

19. Discussion
The ONS-LS is an excellent data source for social mobility analysis
Our own results suggests that:
There has been an increase in absolute mobility for women over successive cohorts. Rates now equal men.
Mixed evidence on Relative mobility rates (fluidity)
Increase for men using NS-SEC, stable for women using NS-SEC
Increase for men and women using CAMSIS
Stable for men and women using income mobility (constant flux)
Notable variation in results from year to year
There is no evidence that additional schooling causally impacted occupation-based social mobility

20. Future of the ONS-LS in mobility analysis?
The ONS-LS still has a lot to offer on social mobility
There is the question of getting a better measure of income included? Merging other administrative data sources?
Determinants of; who are the upwardly, downwardly mobile, how do they change over time?
Regional mobility?
Mobility by ethnic group (Platt) / immigration status?
2021 will allow insight into the generation born in the 1990s.

21. Thanks for your attention