LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS MEXICO PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

MEXICO

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN MEXICO FLOODS SEVERE WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE DERIVHIGH BENEFIT/COST BY BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES

SOME OF THE 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES ARE IN MEXICO

Natural Phenomena That Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s heat flow causes movement of lithospheric plates, which causes subduction, which causes VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

VOLCANOES PART OF THE PACIFIC “RING OF FIRE,” MEXICO HAS ACTIVE VOLCANOES AS A RESULT OF COMPLEX SUBDUCTION OF THE COCOS PLATE BENEATH THE NORTH AMERICAN PLATE

MEXICO: THE NORTH AMERICAN AND COCOS PLATES

MEXICO’S VOLCANOES (NOTE: POPOCATEPETL AND COLIMA)

IMAGES OF POPOCATEPETL MEXICO’S BEST KNOWN ACTIVE VOLCANO AND THE SECOND HIGHEST VOLCANO IN NORTH AMERICA ERUPTED AS RECENTLY AS APRIL 17, 2013

POPOCATEPETL AND PIRAMID DE COCHULA

“POPO’s ERUPTION HISTORY In the past centuries before European came to Mexico, large eruptions produced giant mud flows that buried Aztec settlements, and even entire pyramids

“POPO’s ERUPTION HISTORY After almost 50 years of dormancy, "Popo" came back to life in 1994 and has been producing powerful explosions at irregular intervals since then.

VOLCANO HAZARDS CAN HAVE FAR REACHING IMPACTS VERTICAL PLUME (can affect jet aircraft) ASH AND TEPHRA LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC CLOUDS, BURSTS, AND FLOWS

POPOCATEPETL

VOLCANO HAZARDS CAN HAVE FAR REACHING IMPACTS LAVA FLOWS LAHARS (can bury villages) EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava) “VOLCANIC WINTER” (causing famine and mass extinctions)

A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN WHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION INTERACT WITH MEXICO’S COMMUNITIES

AN ERUPTION OF POPOCATEPETL (AKA “POPO”) WOULD IMPACT NEARBY MEXICO CITY AND PUEBLA LOCATED 50 KM AWAY, 20 MILLION PEOIPLE ARE AT RISK

MEXICO CITY, “POPO” AND AN AIRPLANE

POPOCATEPETL

LATERAL BLAST VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS PYROCLASTIC FLOWS FLYING DEBRIS VOLCANIC ASH LAVA FLOWS LAHARS TOXIC GASES CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

LIKELY IMPACTS BASED ON “POPO’s ERUPTION HISTORY The pyroclastic mud flows can firm up like concrete once they stop, ruining farmland and, because they are difficult to remove, disrupting life in communities.

LIKELY IMPACTS Ash can be especially harmful and even deadly to people who are unable to evacuate. Ash can also be deadly to livestock, on which the resident’s livelihood may depend.

LIKELY ECONOMIC IMPACTS Air traffic may disrupt the economy for long periods if the ash clouds intersect the routes of jet aircraft and are a threat to safety.

LIKELY ECONOMIC IMPACTS A new major eruption of Popocatepetl would likely have a devastating economic impact on local residents who may be subsistence farmers and some of the poorest of the poor. Ash would be especially deadly to people and livestock (on which livelihoods depend), and a potential disaster for jet aircraft.

IMAGES OF COLIMA Colima is not one, but two different volcanoes, the oldest one called Nevado de Colima, that is located about 450 km (270 mi) west of Mexico City

COLIMA

The Volcán de Colima, also known as Volcán de Fuego, is part of the Colima volcanic complex consisting of Volcán de Colima and Nevado de Colima. The youngest of the two, it is currently one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico and North America, erupting more than 40 times since 1576

THE ALTERNATIVE TO A VOLCANIC--ERUPTION DISASTER IS VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

A DISASTER is the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by s ingle- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE... When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure can be LOST for long periods.

THE REASONS ARE... The community is UN- PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence— high-probability of adverse consequences event.

THE REASONS ARE... The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

THE REASONS ARE... The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

THE REASONS ARE... The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

MEXICO’SCOMMUNITIESMEXICO’SCOMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS WINDSTORM HAZARDS PEOPLE & BLDGS. VULNERABILITY LOCATION VOLCANO RISK RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EARLY WARNING EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE School children and adults need masks to counter adverse health effects of breathing volcanic ash.

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE Volcanic ash ruins crops and vegetation and disrupts aviation.

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE Although a complex activity, timely evacuation is essential for volcano disaster resilience

AIR AND LAND MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES ARE VITAL.

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS “RESTORATION TO NORMAL” AND RECOVERY USUALLY TAKE LONGER THAN THOUGHT.