2. LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS RUSSIA PART 4: VOLCANOES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

3. NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN RUSSIA FLOODS WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS WILDFIRES GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES

4. Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s Heat Flow Causes Movement of Tectonic Plates, which leads to :  Volcanoes

5. VOLCANOE ERUPIONS are awesome manifestations of heat flowing as a result of hot spots (e.g., Hawaii and Iceland) and movement of tectonic plates undergoing subduction (e.g., the Kamchatka Peninsula).

6. TECTONIC PLATES

7. KURIL-KAMCHATKA TRENCH Many earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions originate from Kamchatka as a result of subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the Okhotsk Plate at the Kuril- Kamchatka Trench

8. SEISMICITY MAP SINCE 1900: KAMCHATKA HAS THE MOST SEISMIC ACTIVITY

9. 100 VOLCANOES ON THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA

10. VOLCANOES ON THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA

11. KLUCHEVSKYA SOPKA Europe’s highest and most active volcano

12. VOLCANO KLUCHEVSKYA SOPKA

13. VOLCANO SHIVELUCH

14. VOLCANO KARYMSKY

15. VOLCANO SHIVELUCH

16. VOLCANO KIKHPINYCH

17. VOLCANO PLOSKY TOLBACHIK: (Erupted recently in 2012-13)

18. VOLCANO KLIUCHEVSKOI

19. VOLCANO AVANCHISKY

20. KAMCHATKA PENINSULA FORTUNATELY, THE REGION IS SPARSELY POPULATED

21. ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER

22. HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO RISK EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

23. VOLCANO HAZARDS ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS

24. VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) VERTICAL PLUME ASH AND TEPHRA LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

25. VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) LAVA FLOWS LAHARS EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava) “VOLCANIC WINTER”

26. A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN WHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION INTERACT WITH THE BUILT ENVIRONMENTS AND TROPOSPHERES OF RUSSIA’S COMMUNITIES

27. KAMCHATKA PENINSULA FORTUNATELY, THE KAMCHATKA PENIUNSULA IS SPARSELY POPULATED.

28. LATERAL BLAST VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS PYROCLASTIC FLOWS FLYING DEBRIS VOLCANIC ASH LAVA FLOWS LAHARS TOXIC GASES CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

29. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., a volcanic eruption,...) intersect at a point in space and time.

30. Disasters are caused by s ingle- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

31. THE REASONS ARE... When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.

32. THE REASONS ARE... The community is UN- PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence— high-probability of adverse consequences event.

33. THE REASONS ARE... The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for concerted local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

34. THE REASONS ARE... The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

35. THE REASONS ARE... The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

36. THE ALTERNATIVE TO A VOLCANO DISASTER IS VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

37. RUSSIA’S COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS VOLCANO HAZARDS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION VOLCANO RISK RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION FORECASTS/SCENARIOS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS

38. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL VOLCANOES PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL THE LIKELY HAZARDS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

39. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL VOLCANOES AVOIDANCE OF HAZARDOUS ASH PLUMES BY AIRLINES IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

40. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL VOLCANOES TIMELY WARNING AND EVACUATION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

41. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL VOLCANOES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

42. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE KLUCHEVSKYA SOPKA STRATEGIC COLLAB- ORATION IS THE KEY TO BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT FOR EUROPE’S MOST ACTIVE VOLCANO (AND THE OTHERS)

43. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES PURPOSE COMPUTER MODELS OF A SPECIFIC VOL- CANO AND ITS HAZARDS PROFILE PURPOSE COMPUTER MODELS OF A SPECIFIC VOL- CANO AND ITS HAZARDS PROFILE TECHNIQUE INSITU AND SATELLITE MONITORING OF SPECIFIC VOLCANOES TECHNIQUE INSITU AND SATELLITE MONITORING OF SPECIFIC VOLCANOES

44. MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES.

45. GEOEYE PHOTOGRAPHS ERUPTION IN PROGRESS

46. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES PURPOSE PROTECTION CONTROL AVIATION SAFETY PURPOSE PROTECTION CONTROL AVIATION SAFETY TECHNIQUE DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH LAVA AND/OR LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION TECHNIQUE DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH LAVA AND/OR LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION

47. AVIATION SAFETY:MODELS TO AVOID VOLCANIC ASH JET AIRCRAFT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ENGINE FAILURE AND FREE FALL WHEN FLYING THROUGH AN ASH CLOUD.

48. LAVA DIVERSION CHANNELS: CONTROL LAVA FLOWS CAN NOT BE PRE- VENTED FROM OCCURRING, BUT THEY CAN BE DIVERTED AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS INTO THE OCEAN

49. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

50. FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS) WARNING SYSTEMS FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS) WARNING SYSTEMS DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO COMPUTER MODELS OF VOLCANOES MAPS DISASTER SCENARIOS HAZARD ASSESSMENT RISK ASSESSMENT DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO COMPUTER MODELS OF VOLCANOES MAPS DISASTER SCENARIOS HAZARD ASSESSMENT RISK ASSESSMENT

51. KAMCHATKA’S NEXT VOLCANIC ERUPTION IS INEVITABLE ---SO, DON’T WAIT FOR ANOTHER REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE BEFORE YOU ACT