2. LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS EGYPT PART 3: EARTHQUAKES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

3. EGYPT

4. POLITICAL MAP OF EGYPT

5. NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN EGYPT FLOODS STORMS EARTHQUAKES DUST STORMS ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM BECOMING DISASTER NRESILIENT GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES

6. Natural Phenomena That Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s heat flow causes movement of lithospheric plates, which causes faulting, which causes EARTH- QUAKES

7. ACKNOWLEDGMENT: Egyptian ministries, universities, and officials contributed data and expertise in conjunction with the RELEMR PROGRAMME administered since 1990 by UNESCO and the USGS

8. Egypt has a very long historical record of earthquakes going back four millennia

9. CAUSE OF SEISMICITY The interaction of the African, Arabian, Eurasian plates and the Sinai sub-plate is the main factor behind the seismicity of northern Egypt.

10. INTERACTING TECTONIC PLATES

11. ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER

12. HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

13. EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MODEL EARTHQUAKE HAZARD MODEL SEISMICITY TECTONIC SETTING & FAULTS TECTONIC SETTING & FAULTS

14. EGYPT’S SEISMICITY: 1900 TO PRESENT

15. FOUR SEISMIC ZONES All earthquakes occur at shallow depth and are concentrated at four seismic zones: 1) the Gulf of Suez, 2) Gulf of Aqaba, 3) around the entrance of the Gulf of Suez, and 4) the Dahshur area (south- west of greater Cairo)..

16. EXPOSURE MODEL EXPOSURE MODEL LOCATION OF STRUCTURE IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS

17. EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (the potential disaster agents) SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE, GROUND SHAKING, GROUND FAILURE (LIQUEFACTION, LANDSLIDES), AFTERSHOCKS

18. TECTONIC DEFORMATION EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI GROUND SHAKING FAULT RUPTURE FOUNDATION FAILURE SITE AMPLIFICATION LIQUEFACTION LANDSLIDESAFTERSHOCKSSEICHE DAMAGE/LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/LOSS

19. GROUND SHAKING

20. PROBABILISTIC GROUND SHAKING HAZARD

21. VULNERABILITY MODEL VULNERABILITY MODEL QUALITY OF DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE RESISTING SYSTEM

22. UNREINFORCED MASONRY, BRICK OR STONE REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH UNREINFORCED WALLS INTENSITY REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH REINFORCEDWALLS STEEL FRAME ALL METAL & WOOD FRAME VVIVIIVIIIIX 3530 25 20 15 10 5 0 MEAN DAMAGE RATIO, % OF REPLACEMENT VALUE CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND SHAKING

23. INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING EARTHQUAKES SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INATTENTION TO NON- STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

24. EXAMPLES OF PAST DAMAGING EARTHQUAKES THE CAIRO (DAHSHUR) EARTHQUAKE OCTOBER 12, 1992

25. The historical record shows that moderate-magnitude earthquakes such as those that occurred in 1969, 1974, 1981, 1992, 1995, 1999, and 2002 were very damaging.

26. THE CAIRO (DAHSHUR) EARTHQUAKE The M5.8 Cairo earthquake occurred at 15:09 local time on 12 October 1992 with an epicenter near Dahshur, 35 km (22 mi) south of Cairo.

27. DAMAGE The areas of greatest damage were in “Old Cairo” and southwards along the Nile as far as Gerza, on the west bank. 350 buildings were completely destroyed and 9,000 other severely damaged, including 216 mosques and 350 schools.

28. DAMAGE Most of the severe damage was confined to older masonry structures, especially those built of adobe. Liquefaction occurred in areas near the epicenter

29. IMPACTS OF THE CAIRO (DAHSHUR) EARTHQUAKE The most damaging seismic event to affect Cairo since 1847, the earthquake was unusually destructive for its size, causing 545 deaths, injuring 6,512 and making 50,000 people homeless. Unfortunately, some of the deaths and injuries were due to panic.

30. THE REASON: Egypt’s buildings usually do not have adequate resistance to horizontal ground shaking, a recipe for disaster

31. A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN WHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT WITH EGYPT’S COMMUNITIES

32. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

33. Disasters are caused by s ingle- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

34. THE REASONS ARE... When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.

35. THE REASONS ARE... The community is UN- PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence— high-probability of adverse consequences event.

36. THE REASONS ARE... The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

37. THE REASONS ARE... The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

38. THE REASONS ARE... The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

39. MODERATE EARTHQUAKES IN EGYPT ARE INEVITABLE AND DAMAGING ---SO, DON’T WAIT FOR ANOTHER REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENT.

40. THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER IS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

41. EGYPT’S COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION EARTHQUAKE RISK RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION FORECASTS/SCENARIOS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS

42. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL OF THE LIKELY HAZARDS AND RISKS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

43. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE AGAINST COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF FUNCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

44. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE PREPARATION OF DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

45. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL EARTHQUAKES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

46. STRATEGIC COLLABORATION (I.E., WORKING TOGETHER ON A COMMON GOAL) FOR BECOMING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENT

49. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

50. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ DISASTER RESILIENCE MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS) RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS) RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) DATABASES DISASTER SCENARIOS ZONATION OF POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS DATABASES DISASTER SCENARIOS ZONATION OF POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS

51. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ DISASTER RESILIENCE AUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMT PREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATION ADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES) COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION) REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION) REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

52. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EQ DISASTER RESILIENCE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., SEISMIC NETWORKS, TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM) PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF PHYSICAL EFFECTS MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., SEISMIC NETWORKS, TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM) DATABASES SEISMIC ENGINEERING MAPS: GROUND SHAKING, GTOUND FAILURE, TSUNAMI WAVE RUNIP DISASTER SCENARIOS WARNING SYSTEMS RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) DATABASES SEISMIC ENGINEERING MAPS: GROUND SHAKING, GTOUND FAILURE, TSUNAMI WAVE RUNIP DISASTER SCENARIOS WARNING SYSTEMS RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)