2. LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

3. Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s heat flow and lithospheric- mantle collision- zone inter- actions cause VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

4. NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN FLOODS WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRAD- ATION GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES

5. GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES

6. ACTIVE VOLCANOES

7. THE CARIBBEAN BASIN

8. The Caribbean: long referred to as the West Indies, includes more than 7,000 islands; of these, 13 are independent island countries

9. ISLANDS POSSESSING MINOR VOLCANIC FEATURES Aruuba, Barbados, Bahamas, Bonaire, Cayman Islands, Saint Croix, and Antigua

10. ISLANDS POSSESSING RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGES Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Jamaica,,Dominica, Montserrat, Saba, Saint Kitts, Saint Lucia, Saint Thomas, Saint John, Tortola, Grenada, Saint Vincent, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Trinidad and Tobago

11. ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER

12. THE CARIBBEAN’S VOLCANOES The present dozen active volcanoes on or near the Caribbean are restricted to the Lesser Antilles

13. THE BEST KNOWN HISTORIC ERUPTIONS The best known are:oufriere on Guadeloupe, Mount Pelee on Martinique (well-known for its disastrous 1902 eruption and nuee ardente destroying St. Pierre and killing some 28,000 people), Kick'Em Jenny, a submarine volcano north of Grenada, and a series of eruptions beginning in 1995 on Montserrat.

14. HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO RISK EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

15. THE VOLCANO HAZARDS ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS

16. VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) VERTICAL PLUME ASH AND TEPHRA LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

17. VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) LAVA FLOWS LAHARS EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava) “VOLCANIC WINTER”

18. A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN WHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION INTERACT WITH A CARIBBEAN NATION’S COMMUNITIES

19. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., a volcanic eruption,...) intersect at a point in space and time.

20. Disasters are caused by s ingle- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

21. THE REASONS ARE... When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.

22. THE REASONS ARE... The community is UN- PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence— high-probability of adverse consequences event.

23. THE REASONS ARE... The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

24. THE REASONS ARE... The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

25. THE REASONS ARE... The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

26. EXAMPLES OF PAST VOLCANO DISASTERS MONTSERAT

27. SOUFRIERE HILLS: 1995 and following

28. SOUFRIERE HILLS ERUPTION

30. SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO, MONTSERAT: 1995 TO PRESENT The capital, Plymouth, was buried by ash and eventually evacuated. 2,000-3,000 still remain on the island.

31. IMPACTS Numerous evacuations followed by temporary resumptions made normal life impossible. Plymouth, which was eventually destroyed, was unable to function effectively as the capital.

32. THE ALTERNATIVE TO A VOLCANO DISASTER IS VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

33. CARIBBEAN NATION’S COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS VOLCANO HAZARDS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION VOLCANO RISK RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION FORECASTS/SCENARIOS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS

34. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL VOLCANOES PREPAREDNESS FOR THE LIKELY HAZARDS (PDA’s) IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

35. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL VOLCANOES TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GEOEYE) THAT FACILITATE THREAT IDENTIFICATION FOR EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

36. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL VOLCANOES EARLY WARNING IS ESSENTIAL FOR EVAC- UATION AND DISASTER RESILIENCE

37. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL VOLCANOES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

38. STRATEGIC COLLABORATION FOR BECOMING VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENT

39. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES PURPOSE PROTECTION CONTROL AVIATION SAFETY PURPOSE PROTECTION CONTROL AVIATION SAFETY TECHNIQUE DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH LAVA AND/OR LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION TECHNIQUE DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH LAVA AND/OR LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION

40. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES PURPOSE URBAN PLANNING EVACUATION PURPOSE URBAN PLANNING EVACUATION TECHNIQUE MAPS: LAVA AND/OR LAHAR FLOW PATHS; ASH DISTRIBUTION COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLAN TECHNIQUE MAPS: LAVA AND/OR LAHAR FLOW PATHS; ASH DISTRIBUTION COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLAN

41. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES PURPOSE COMPUTER MODELS OF A SPECIFIC VOL- CANO, OR OF A SPECIFIC HAZARD PURPOSE COMPUTER MODELS OF A SPECIFIC VOL- CANO, OR OF A SPECIFIC HAZARD TECHNIQUE MONITORING TO CONSTRUCT AN ERUPTION HISTORY OF A VOLCANO; HAZARD ZONES TECHNIQUE MONITORING TO CONSTRUCT AN ERUPTION HISTORY OF A VOLCANO; HAZARD ZONES

42. DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES PURPOSE TEMPORARY SHELTERS PURPOSE TEMPORARY SHELTERS TECHNIQUE SAFE HAVENS FOR EVACUEES TECHNIQUE SAFE HAVENS FOR EVACUEES

43. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

44. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WIND DIRECTION) WARNING SYSTEMS FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WIND DIRECTION) WARNING SYSTEMS DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO COMPUTER MODELS OF EACH VOLCANO HAZARD MAPS DISASTER SCENARIOS HAZARD ASSESSMENT RISK ASSESSMENT DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO COMPUTER MODELS OF EACH VOLCANO HAZARD MAPS DISASTER SCENARIOS HAZARD ASSESSMENT RISK ASSESSMENT

45. INSITU AND SATELLITE MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES.

46. ALTHOUGH INFREQUENT, A VOLCANIC ERUPTION IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS INEVITABLE ---SO, DON’T WAIT FOR ANOTHER REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF BECOMING VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENT.