Nikolay Voutchkov, PE, BCEE 2012 Lisbon, Portugal Desalination Overview of Desalination Status & Future Trends Nikolay Voutchkov, PE, BCEE Water Globe Consulting

Desalination – Where Are We Today? 16,000 Desalination Plants Worldwide – 66.4 Million m³/day Source: IDA Desalination Yearbook 2011-2012

Projected New Desalination Capacity in 2012 7.9 MM m³/day Actual New Capacity in 2011 6.8 MM m³/day Source: WDR, July 2010

Thermal vs. RO Desalination TechnoBiz Training Program (www.technobiz-asia.com)

Membrane Desalination – Key Trends SWRO Desalination Technologies Dominate; Large - (over 50,000 m³/day) and Mega - (over 200,000 m³/day) Desalination Plants Are the Wave of the Future; Most Large Urban Coastal Centers Worldwide Have Established a Target to Produce 25 % of their Drinking Water from Desalination; Research &Development Activities are in 10-Year High – Likely to Yield Breakthroughs in Membrane and Desalination Technologies by 2015; Large SWRO Projects Are Aiming at Sustainability – Green is In!

Water Production Costs of Recent SWRO Desalination Projects TechnoBiz Training Program (www.technobiz-asia.com)

Common Features of Low-Cost Desalination Projects Low Cost HDPE Open Intakes or Beach Wells; Near-Shore/On-Shore Discharges w/o Diffuser Systems or Co-discharge w/ Power Plant or WWTP Outfalls; Point of Product Water Delivery within 5 km of Desalination Plant Site; RO System Design w/ Feed of Multiple Trains by Common High Pressure Pumps and Energy Recovery Systems; Turnkey Method of Project Delivery. TechnoBiz Training Program (www.technobiz-asia.com)

Typical Cost and Energy Ranges (Medium & Large SWRO Plants) Classification Cost of Water Production (US$/m³) SWRO System Energy Use (kWh/m³) Low-End Bracket 0.5 – 0.8 2.5 – 2.8 Medium Range 1.0- 1.5 3.0 – 3.5 High-End Bracket 2.0 – 4.0 4.0 – 4.5 Average 1.0 3.0

Evolving SWRO Membrane Performance Larger Membrane Element Area: 41 m² vs. 37 m²; Larger RO Element Productivity: 28 to 47 m³/day; Improved Salt Rejection: 99.7 to 99.8 %; Increased Boron Rejection: 90 to 93 %; Wider Membrane Spacers: 28 mil vs. 34 mil.

Membrane Pretreatment is Becoming More Popular for Large Plants! 300,000 m³/day Adelaide SWRO Plant, Australia : – Disk Filters + Submersible UF; – Largest SWRO Facility with Membrane Pretreatment. Where Membrane Pretreatment Has Worked Well? – for Source Waters of Low Bio-fouling Potential: Subsurface or Deep Open Ocean Intakes; Plants w/ DAF or Other Pretreatment Ahead of UF/MF Membranes. Where Membrane Pretreatment Has Faced Challenges? Shallow Open Intakes Exposed to Heavy Algal Blooms; Systems Designed for Overly High Flux Rates Based on Short-term Piloting.

Where Future Cost Savings Would Come From? New Membrane & Pipe Materials & Separation Technologies TechnoBiz Training Program (www.technobiz-asia.com) 11

Improvements in Membrane Element Productivity: Main Areas Expected to Yield Cost Savings in the Next 5 Years (20 % Cost & Power Reduction ) Improvements in Membrane Element Productivity: Polymetric Membranes (Incorporation of Nano-particles Into Membrane Polymer Matrix); Bio-membranes & Enzymatic Transport of Water Carbon Nanotube Membranes Increased Membrane Useful Life and Reduced Fouling: Smoother Membrane Surface Increased Membrane Material Longevity; Use of Systems for Continuous RO Membrane Cleaning; UF/MF Membrane Pretreatment. Commercial Forward Osmosis Systems; Larger RO Elements, Trains and Equipment. TechnoBiz Training Program (www.technobiz-asia.com) 12

“The Best” of Seawater Desalination Present Status & Future Forecasts Parameter Today Within 5 Years Within 20 Years Cost of Water (2012 US$/m³) US$0.5-0.8 US$0.4-0.6 US$0.2-0.4 Construction Cost (US$/m³/day) 1,200-2,200 1,000-1,800 500-1,000 Power Use of SWRO System (kWh/m³) 2.5-2.8 2.0-2.3 1.4-1.8 Membrane Productivity (m³/day/SWRO membrane) 28-47 35-55 95-120 Membrane Useful Life (years) 5-7 7-10 10-15 Plant Recovery Ratio (%) 45-50 50-55 55-65 TechnoBiz Training Program (www.technobiz-asia.com) 13

Concluding Remarks The Ocean Is Becoming One of the Key Sources of Reliable and Draught-Proof Coastal Water Supply in the Next 10 Years; Seawater Desalination is Economical Today and Will Become Even More Cost-Competitive in the Future; The Future of Seawater Desalination Is Bright – 20% Cost of Water Reduction in the Next 5 Years; Long-term Investment In Research and Development Has the Potential to Reduce the Cost of Desalinated Water by 80 % In the Next 20 Years. TechnoBiz Training Program (www.technobiz-asia.com) 14

Water Globe Consulting Questions ? Nikolay Voutchkov, PE, BCEE Water Globe Consulting nvoutchkov@water-g.com Nikolay Voutchkov TechnoBiz Training Program (www.technobiz-asia.com)