Michelle Colley UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) Handling climate risks and uncertainties in decision-making Climate Impacts Forecasting for Slopes (CLIFFS) Launch meeting 26 October 2005

What is UKCIP? The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) helps organisations assess how they might be affected by climate change, so they can prepare for its impacts Set up 1997; funded by Defra Programme of the Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment Stakeholder-led research using: – Common tools & experience – Intelligent access to datasets – Guidance & support for studies & partnerships – Web access to all tools

UKCIP tools

Range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, climate models & scenarios – unknown probabilities Natural climate variability too Uncertainty about impacts these climate changes will have on any system Uncertainty about whether adaptation measures will work How can decisions be made? Handling climate risks and uncertainties in decision-making

Framework describes process for appraisal and management of risks and uncertainties Similar to others used for corporate risk management – recognisable to decision- makers Bringing ‘climate adaptation’ and ‘risk management’ worlds together Enables climate risks to be ‘mainstreamed’ within existing processes UKCIP/EA decision-making framework

Take a balanced approach to managing climate and non-climate risks 1

Define what makes the correct decision Need operational criteria for risk assessment and options appraisal Take account of defined thresholds and risk attitude (optimistic, precautionary/risk averse, least regret) 2 (Based on Hewitt & Burton (1971); Smit et al (2000); Jones (2001))

Give appropriate attention to all sources of uncertainty 3 Information on low probability / high consequence events may be most uncertain – but risk assessment may show these are highest risk Identify important climate risk factors – priorities for adaptation Uncertainty in non-climate risks and impact models may be of equal or greater significance than uncertainties over present or future climate hazards Thresholds-based approach may help focus attention on critical uncertainties

Use adaptive management to cope with uncertainty Put in place incremental adaptation options, rather than undertaking large-scale adaptation in one fell swoop Keep open / increase options that allow climate adaptation in future, when need for adaptation and performance of different measures is less uncertain E.g. Flood management: It may be sensible to allow for future increases in defence height, while not building to a higher standard immediately Circular, iterative framework promotes adaptive management 45

Try to find no- or low-regret adaptation options ‘No regret’: deliver benefits that exceed their costs, whatever the extent of climate change E.g. If already experiencing weather- related problems, carry out cost- effective actions to deal with them ‘Low regret’: low cost, potentially large benefits under climate change 45 E.g. Building climate change in at the design stage for new drainage system – make pipes wider

Try to find win-win options ‘Win-win’ options contribute to climate adaptation and also to other objectives E.g. Creation of salt-marsh habitat provides flood protection for coastal areas and also contributes to nature conservation objectives 45

Avoid actions that will make it more difficult to cope with climate risks Adaptation-constraining decisions make it more difficult for you, or others to manage future climate risks E.g. Inappropriate development in a flood risk area 6