1. Conservation management for an uncertain future Mike Morecroft

3. Outline Science, policy and practise Conservation and climate change Forecasting and systems approaches

4. ScientistPolicy Maker Science and ‘policy’? advice Questions £ $ €

5. Scientist Science advisor Practical Conservationist Senior manager Decision maker Policy advisor Land manager Simplified ‘advice chain’ Action! Simplified ‘advice web’

6. Different niches in the advice web Different requirements e.g. Science advisor – detailed understanding Politician – implications for other policy areas Land manager – practical guidance Complementary expertise Societal context critical Learning from experience

7. Scientist Science advisor Practical Conservationist Senior manager Decision maker Policy advisor Land manager Aspirational ‘advice web’ Action!

8. Conservation and climate change (and other environmental changes)

11. intensification fragmentation habitat loss (and gain) agriculture air pollution Pressures on ecosystems climate change development invasive species etc. time

12. The past is not a reliable guide to the future → we need ‘forecasting’

13. Direct effects of climate change Shifting distributions Changing phenology Disrupted interactions between species Extreme event effects (e.g. drought / fire) Rising sea level CO 2 effects: Fertilisation, water use efficiency, acidification

14. Indirect effects of climate change Changing agricultural practise / crops Changing catchment management (water supply / flood management) Energy crops Carbon management Changing coastal management Renewable energy (e.g. hydro) Etc!

15. Oblong woodsiaStag beetle Changes in potential distribution (MONARCH programme 2080’s high scenario) Loss Gain Continue

16. Average northward shift of 16 taxa over past 30 years Hickling et al 2006

17. impacts adaptation modellingmonitoring mitigation

18. Adaptation Principles

19. EBS Adaptation Principles (Smithers et al, 2009) Take practical action now Maintain and increase ecological resilience Accommodate change Integrate action across partners and sectors Develop knowledge and plan strategically

20. Maintain and increase ecological resilience Conserve range and ecological variability of habitats / species Maintain existing ecological networks Create buffer zones around high quality habitats Take prompt action to control spread of invasive species Accommodate change Understand change is inevitable Make space for the natural development of rivers and coasts Establish ecological networks Aid gene flow Consider the role of species translocation / ex-situ conservation Develop the capacity of institutions Respond to changing conservation priorities

21. Resilience or accommodation? enable persistence -------> accept change resilience accommodation Changing approach as the climate changes 1 °C > 2 °C > 3 °C > 4 °C

22. Examples of Climate change adaptation and mitigation in Natural England Research and development Vulnerability assessment Managed realignment Habitat heterogeneity guidance Peatland restoration Adaptation and mitigation through Environmental Stewardship

23. Investigate and reduce your carbon emissions Protect soil and water Increase tree cover Protect wildlife

24. Examples of Climate change adaptation and mitigation in Natural England Research and development Vulnerability assessment Managed realignment Habitat heterogeneity guidance Peatland restoration Adaptation and mitigation through Environmental Stewardship Designations (changing species / boundaries) Habitat networks

25. Role of forecasting and systems approaches

26. Do we still need modelling? Not always! Prediction / direction of travel Explore scenarios Modelling can help understanding –Compare sensitivities –Identify dependencies –Test interactions and attribution Investigate response options Provide visualisation Quantification e.g. carbon fluxes

27. Climate envelope models Available data Large number of species possible Good for visualisation But Non-climate limitations on distributions Dispersal limitations Non-analagous climates Etc.

28. Process modelling? Population studies of rare species Carbon storage Catchment management Dispersal / network design Components of DGVMs Land use planning Etc. Distribution modelling?

29. Pitfalls for modellers Over-emphasising prediction vs. exploring scenarios Over-stating accuracy Detachment from practical problems

30. climate projections ecosystem responses Uncertainty X Plan for uncertainty: risk management

31. Coping with uncertainty No regrets measures Adaptive management approach Monitoring and research adaptmonitorreview

32. Conclusions Beware of simplistic view of ‘policy’ Shifting emphasis from impacts to adaptation and mitigation Think in terms of understanding as much as prediction Embrace uncertainty

33. Acknowledgements Colleagues especially Humphrey Crick, Nick Macgregor, Simon Duffield Collaborators and students especially Pam Berry, Mandar Trivedi, James Paterson