1. Risk and Environment A Strategic Perspective
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Paul Hayden MA, MSc, MIFireE Chief Officer / Chief Executive
Hereford & Worcester Fire and Rescue Service

3. 3
Practical Impacts
“The atmosphere isn’t warming, and if it is, then its down to natural variations; and even if its not down to natural variations, then the amount of warming is insignificant; and if it becomes significant, then the benefits will outweigh the problems, and even if they don’t, technology will come to the rescue; and even if it doesn't, we shouldn’t risk wrecking the economy because some of the science is uncertain!”

4. New critical threshold
Climate sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptation
Present
Past
Time
Climate variable
Decision
to adapt
Vulnerability
New coping range
New critical threshold
Implementation
of adaptation
Critical threshold
Coping range
Future
Lag
Planning time horizon
Slide courtesy of UKCIP

5. Definitions of key terms5
Definitions of key terms
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE [IPCC]
Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.
Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.
Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.

6. 6
Strategic Challenges
FRS must act to reduce its impact on the Environment.
We need to build, and continually make, the strategic business and economic case for adaptation – i.e;
reduction in fires = reduction in GHG
Make the case for a review of B1 on environmental grounds - sprinklers to reduce carbon impact of fire
data as a driver for local partnerships
We should use our “brand” as community leaders in persuading others to adapt

7. FRS Practical Impacts 7 HOWEVER:
Historic emissions mean we will experience significant change
in the next 50 years regardless of our actions to reduce
emissions – our service will need to adapt to change in at least
5 key areas;
High Summer Temperatures
Floods
Drought
Storms
Social Impact – [ for example, migration]
This is not an excuse to do nothing – indeed, we need urgent
action today to adapt to the “new normal”

8. High Summer Temperatures

10. Drought

11. Storm

14. Flood

15. Migration

16. Final Thoughts Our key contribution is leadership 16
It’s a big ask for our Authorities, Communities and staff to
accept [and pay] for adaptive behaviours when they cant see
the immediate pay back
Do not fall into the “either / or” trap! Its not about GHG
reductions or adapting to service delivery challenges – we
need a strategic and coordinated approach to both
There will be ongoing arguments about the science, and its
easy to put off doing anything in the belief that “we cant do
anything, so why bother”
Our key contribution is leadership