1. (In)visibility of CC Workshop, Nov. 2013
Case Studies on Climate Impacts
Matthias Lüdeke
(In)visibility of CC Workshop, Nov. 2013
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

2. Some hypotheses and (open) questions regarding:
Local climate change projections
The possibility to prove local benefits from emission reductions
The problems of open uncertainty communication to local decision makers
Identifying types of CC-vulnerability to enable the formation of interest- and knowledge-exchange groups in the CC-realm
Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group
Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 2 2

3. Climate change projections:
1/4
Climate change projections:
the more local the more uncertain (for many climate variables)
–> We know least on the scale where weather can be directly experienced by the people
how to deal with that?
Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group
Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 3 3

4. Climate Change projections and their uncertainty for Hyderabad/India
Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group
Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 4 4

5. 2/4
Are local climate change impacts significantly reduced by global emission reductions?
Is there a direct benefit for, e.g., a city government to engage in efforts for global emission reductions, including own, local mitigation?
Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group
Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 5 5

6. Climate Change projections and their uncertainty for Hyderabad/India
Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group
Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 6 6

7. Hyderabad/India under Climate Change
Extreme Daily Precipitation in Hyderabad
once-in-2-years percentile
Lüdeke et al, 2010
Locations of
Critical Flow
Accumulation
50% B1 A2 B1 A2
2000
2050
2100
all IPCC-AR4 runs
Increase of people
severely affected B1 A2
Kit et al.
2011
50% impact reduction under the Low Emission scenario
Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group
Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 7 7

8. Uncertainty communication to local decision makers:
3/4
Uncertainty communication to local decision makers:
Large efforts in CC-projections compared to the uncertainty discussion of local socio-economic projections and even present trends
-> How to avoid bias in decisions which mostly have to consider both?
Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group
Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 8 8

9. a) c) b) Slum dwellers affected by future flooding (mid 21stcent.)
Trend-based slum dev. scenarios
Hyderabad/India
Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group
Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 9 9

10. 4/4
Identifying types of CC-vulnerability: which groups will encounter similar CC-impacts, potentially establishing interest and knowledge-exchange groups in the CC-realm?
Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group
Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 10 10

11. Rapid coastal urbanisation: typical vulnerability patterns
Port-au-Prince
Mumbai
Manila
Rio de Janeiro
Lagos
Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group
Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 11 11

12. Rapid coastal urbanisation: typical vulnerability patterns
3 example clusters:
Presently low flood exposure but
high sensitivity -> unprecedented
damage types under future CC
Increasing damage from all
types of extreme events under
poor adaptation ability
Declining natural protection
against prevailing floods and
future SLR, moderate coping
abilities
Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group
Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 12 12

13. RAPID URBAN IMPACT APPRAISAL – Step 1: filtering
Considered impact path:
Pluvial flooding
Slum areas
People affected
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

14. (In)visibility Workshop of CC, Nov. 2013
Thanks for your interest!
(In)visibility Workshop of CC, Nov. 2013
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

15. Present and future urban slums under Climate Change
Lacunarity based slum identification
from actual QuickBird (0.6x0.6m)
satellite imagery
Kit et al., 2011
Dr. Matthias Lüdeke, Climate Change and Development Group
Research Domain II – Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities 15 15

16. Rapidly urbanizing coastal areas in developing countries
Research Result:
Climate Proofing:
Entry points for supporting
climate proof development,
depending on vulnerability
profile:
infrastructure sectors to
concentrate on
emphasis on deprived
areas
restoration of natural
protection
Kok/Lüdeke/Sterzel et al., in press
6 clearly separable clusters in 17-dim indicator space => different vulnerability profiles

17. Weather related impacts on different socio-economic groups and socially sensitive adaptation options
Climate proofing (heat and rain events):
Increasing the easiness of mobility better the living situation for both groups
Wallahs: investment in health infrastructure better than in energy infrastructure
City managers: the opposite
Improvement of water supply and drainage infrastructure reduces ALL associated problems in traffic, water, economic and health situation for City managers and Wallahs
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (survey based) of
weather impacts for different social groups
Here: rain for Wallahs in Delhi (Reckien et al, in prep.)
Rain events:
Improvement
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Wallahs
2.8
2.2
5.5
1.5
2.1
1.1
City
managers
1.6
2.7
0.9
1.0
Six improvement scenarios evaluated using the social group specific FCMs for heat and rain events:
(1) Improvement of water and sewage infrastructure (2) Selfhelp solutions by working in the dark, repairing houses, private power generation (3) Increase the easiness of mobility (4) Investment in energy infrastructure and provision without and (5) with “private access” (6) Extension of health infrastructure

18. (In)visibility Workshop, Nov. 2013
From Malte Meinshausen
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research