1. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 Methodologies for, Approaches to, and Frameworks of, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Dr Isabelle NIANG-DIOP University of Dakar (SENEGAL)

2. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 What do we mean by…..?  Just ways to produce V&A studies  The main methodologies/frameworks The « first generation »: IPCC guidelines 1994 CGE work; synthesis of first V&A studies ; weakness of adaptation strategies The « second generation »: 2002-2003 – the Adaptation Policy Framework; « adaptation oriented » –The NAPAs –Uncertainty-Risk decision making tools : the UKCIP methodology

3. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 The IPCC Technical Guidelines (Carter et al., 1994) Define problem Select method Test method/sensitivity Select scenarios Assess impacts Assess autonomous adjustments Evaluate adaptation strategies 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

4. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 The IPCC Guidelines  Step 1: Define the problem Goals of the assessment Exposure units to be studied (sectors, ecosystems,..) Study area (administrative, geographical, ecological units, …) Time frame (time horizons) Data needs : identify data requirements (type, source, quantity, quality,…) The context of the study: political, economic, global changes, etc.  Step 2: Select the method

5. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 The IPCC Guidelines  Step 2: Select the method Experimentation Models : biophysical, economic, integrated Analogues : historical, geographical Expert judgement  Step 3: Test the method  Step 4: Select the scenarios The baselines: climatological, environmental, socio-economic The scenarios : mainly climate change scenarios (MAGICC- SCENGEN), environmental and socio-economic projections

6. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 The IPCC Guidelines  Step 5: Assess the impacts Qualitative assessments The use of models (CERES, Bruun rule, WATBAL, Holdride) Economic impacts : cost benefit analysis  Step 6: Assess autonomous adjustments  Step 7: Evaluate adaptation strategies The seven steps approach

7. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 Evaluation of adaptation strategies Define objectives Specify important impacts Identify adaptation options Examine constraints Quantify measures/formulate alternative strategies Weight objectives/evaluate trade-offs Recommend adaptation measures 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

8. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 The IPCC methodology  A number of derived methodologies The USCSP The UNEP Handbook  Applied in a number of V&A studies, and particularly in the Initial National Communications of Non Annex I Countries

9. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 Other approaches  The small islands approach, especially in the Pacific: sparsity of data, the importance of traditional knowledge The vulnerability-resilience approach (Kay et al., 1993) applied in the coastal zone. The coastal zone was considered to be made of hard and soft systems. Vulnerability was ranked from –3 to 0 and resilience from 0 to +3. The difference between the two being called the Sustainable Capacity Index

10. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 A rapid evolution  The CGE work based on synthesis and analysis of V&A studies  The growing recognition of the importance of adaptation for NAI countries  A context of more frequent extreme events  First recognition of the need to integrate adaptation strategies into planning development  Greater exchange with other communities: disaster, risk and uncertainty managers

11. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 As a result  The new guidelines for the preparation of national communications of Non Annex I Parties http://unfccc.int/resource/userman_nc.pdf  A number of new methodologies, approaches, frameworks: the so-called « second generation » methodologies The Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) The National Adaptation Programmes of Actions The UKCIP « Climate change risk-uncertainty- decision making framework

12. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 The second generation methodologies : What’s new ?  Less prescriptive  Better centered on adaptation  Consider adaptation in the development context  Include stakeholders participation  Take into consideration current as well as future vulnerability

13. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 The Adaptation Policy Framework  Developed by an interdisciplinary team under UNDP  Propose practical guidance to develop an adaptation strategy for climate change  Based on a 5 steps approach  Supported by 9 Technical Papers  With a User’s Guidebook already available (2003)  http://www.undp.org/cc/apf_outline.htm

14. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 The Adaptation Policy Framework

15. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 The NAPAs  The objective is to develop action programmes adressing the current and urgent needs of LDCs in adaptation to climate change  Annotated Guidelines for the Preparation of National Adaptation Programmes of Action (2002)  http://unfccc.int/text/program/sd/ldc/documents/a nnguide.pdf

16. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 Set up the teams Synthesis Participative evaluation of current vulnerability Public consultation to identify potential adaptation actions Define criteria Prioritization of actions Design projects Submission and dissemination

17. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 The UKCIP method: CC risk, uncertainty and decision-making framework  The main objectives are to allow decision makers to Take in account risk and uncertainty associated with climate variability and future climate change Identify good adaptation options, in particular no regret options  Framework in 8 stages  http://www.ukcip.org.uk/risk_uncert/risk_uncert.h tml

18. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 Identify problem Define decision- making criteria Assess risks Identify optionsAppraise options Monitor Implement decision Criteria met? Yes Problem definition? No Yes Make decision

19. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 New/improved tools  Regional climate change scenarios  The AIACC project  Vulnerability indices  Improved models  New sectors emerged (health for example)

20. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 You want more?  Look at the « Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change »  http://unfccc.int/program/mis/meth

21. UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, 25-30 april 2004 Thanks for your attention !