1. For more information, contact dswanson@iisd.ca or ulkak@teri.res.in
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2. Climate change introduces huge unknowns for policymaking
“When situations are characterized by variability, uncertainty and change, conventional planning scenarios provide little guidance regarding future needs and conditions…Specific solutions are less important than the existence of processes and frameworks that enable solutions to be identified and implemented as specific constraints and contexts change.” (Moench et al 2003)
- Emphasis for our research is on the Unanticipated change, as this is the uncharted territory with regard to policymaking. The ability of policies to adapt to anticipated conditions is more conventional in policy design, but not to say that it is done very well.
The challenge is to design policies that are able to adapt to both anticipated and UNANTICIPATED changes in underlying conditions

3. Learning from policy case studies
What features make policies adaptive to changes in underlying conditions?
Index-based weather risk insurance for agriculture in India
Automatic adjustment triggered by climate information
Use of pilot approaches to iteratively refine program delivery
Delivery through local organisations to build in 2-way communication channels
Agricultural price policy in Punjab, India
Formal review process to adjust price support levels (taking into account parameters such as cost of production, changes in input prices, etc)
However price incentives that did not internalize natural resource costs locked cultivators into highly irrigation-intensive cropping pattern

4. Learning from policy case studies
Crow Rate in Prairie Canada
Initial rigidity in modifying subsidy policy
Overhaul of policy eventually introduced adaptive features e.g. adjustment of freight rate based on variable transportation costs, grain volume forecasts and transport distance
Conservation Districts programme in Manitoba, Canada
Designed to decentralize responsibilities for environmental management to local organizations – successful in adapting to new conservation challenges
Most successful CDs had physical boundaries that conformed to watershed boundaries - significance of policy design oriented towards ecosystem realities

5. Again, emphasis is on ability to adapt to UNANTICIPATED conditions, as this is the uncharted territory in policy design.
No regrets policies and automatic adjustment based on triggers and actions improve adaptiveness to anticipated conditions.
Principles for intervening in complex adaptive systems yield insights for improving policy adaptation to UNANTICIPATED conditions, as do structured learning processes such as formal review and readjustment

6. Next steps Community-level research in India and Canada
Currently studying how communities have coped with historical climate stresses
Which public policies facilitated the ability of communities to cope with surprise and longer-term change?
What are the characteristics and mechanisms that helped the policies perform successfully?
Action learning research
Work directly with policy-makers to apply adaptive policy features to the design of an existing or proposed policy as a test for pragmatism, and functionality of key concepts and tools.