1 UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA President’s Office, Planning and Privatization Participatory District Agricultural Development Planning for Sustainable Development: The Case of Mbeya Rural District Integrated Assessment and Planning for Sustainable Development Second Review Meeting Geneva, September 21-22, 2005

2 Background (1) Original focus of the assessment:  To enhance capacities on agriculture, poverty alleviation, environmental management and sustainable trade promotion Basis for selection:  Integrated policy approaches for maximum contribution of economic and trade policies  80%-85% of Tanzanians depend on agriculture and agricultural related activities for their livelihoods

3 Background (2) The original key objectives of the project - Strengthening environmental, social and economic institutional cooperation and coordination. - Facilitating the design of integrated policies, plans, and programmes - Enhancing capacity for sustainable development - Contributing to the country’s commitment to the goals of WSSD plan of implementation No change in focus and objectives

4 Key policy scenarios Food self-sufficiency attainment  Will guarantee increased involvement in economic activities for poverty reduction. Increased income  Will enhance capacities for agricultural production, environmental management and trade promotion  Will lead to sustainable income increase resulting into poverty reduction.

5 Productive sector to be assessed Agricultural sector  Majority of Tanzanians (over 80%) depend on agriculture and agricultural related activities for their livelihoods.

6 Assessing economic, social and environmental impacts Key methods SWOT Analysis Trend Analysis Poverty Monitoring Systems (PMS) Gender Budget Analysis (GBA)

7 Process used in implementing the project Community participation and consultation Opportunities and Obstacles for Development (O &OD)

8 Assessment framework – Agricultural Sector Maize and Tomato Production in Ijombe Ward, 2005 Economic Indicators Maize production - Food self sufficiency Tomato production - Alternative crop - increasing income Total Production2,346,000 kg2,904,000 kg Yield1200 kg/acre4000 kg/acre Per capita consumption152 kg Total incomeTsh. 89,610,000.=Tsh.308,480,000.= Per capita incomeTsh. 10,000.= (USD 8.81) Tsh 34,335.= (USD 30.25) Indicative border priceTsh. 150.=/kgTsh. 400.=/kg.

9 Assessment framework (2) Social IndicatorsMaize production - Food self sufficiency Tomato production - Alternative crop - increasing income Population/Households8984 / 2439 Active labour force3002 (33%) Abject poor781 SchoolsPrimary6 (pupils enrolled 2543) Secondary1(pupils enrolled 400) Dispensary1 HIV/AIDS ImpactProductivity reduced by 5% Rural roads100% passable during the year Clean water1311 (54%) households

10 Assessment framework (3) Environment Indicators Maize production - Food self sufficiency Tomato production - Alternative crop - increasing income Total area5539 acres Total cultivated acreage4563 acres Related crop acreage1955 acres728 acres Fertilizer use per acreTsh 40,000 (UREA)Tsh 40,000 (CAN) Insecticide use per acreTsh 96,000 Climate for cropgood Forest acreage1600 acres Area threatened by soil erosion 100 acres

11 Initial effects Scenario effects on price Increase in price of maize leads to increase in land acreage and possibly degradation For the alternative crop, increase in price leads to increase in use of insecticides that have environmental hazard effects

12 Effects of price change/incentives (1) Changes in price or incentive will lead to: Product Increased production Increased use of biological and mechanical inputs Scale Increased acreage Conducting EIA Small, medium, large scale farmers

13 Effects of price change/incentives (2) Changes in price or incentive will lead to: Structural  Organizational skills  Markets, market facilitation and information database  Logistics  Specialization

14 Effects of price change/incentives (3) Changes in price or incentive will lead to: Technology Use of irrigation technology Agricultural, mechanization Use of biological inputs Introduction of SMEs to add value

15 Effects of price change/incentives (4) Changes in price or incentive will lead to: Regulatory Bye laws, prohibiting cultivation around water sources Labour laws Contract laws Cross border trade rules Revenue authority laws Licencing

16 Economic/Trade Effects (by 2007) IndicatorMaize ProductionTomato Production Crop outputDoubled to 5 mn kg (increased yield/acre - use of new simple technologies) > Doubled to 6 mn kg (increased acreage) (increased yield/acre) IncomeSale of 3.5 mn kg will fetch Tsh 350 mn Border trade with Malawi & Zambia will grow Sale will fetch Tsh 600 mn Small scale enterp. (processing) and jobs Poverty Level50% reduction of abject poor (781 to 390) (income for child education, basic health care, nutrition) Poverty reduction

17 Environmental Effects IndicatorMaize ProductionTomato Production Soil degradation Soil degradation as a result of increased use of land and fertilizer Environmental hazards caused by increased use of insecticides Soil erosionSoil erosion caused by clearance of new land Pollution of water sources due to increased use of insecticides Natural resource degradation Deforestation caused by land Clearance Air pollution caused by insecticides spraying

18 Effects on social well-being and poverty IndicatorMaize ProductionTomato Production Number of Primary School Classrooms Increase of Classrooms by 57% from 7 to 11. Increase of classrooms by 65% from 7 to 12. Access to basic health needs Reduction of malnutrition by 52% from 25 to 12 Reduction of malnutrition by 76% from 25 to 6. Reduction of Abject Poverty Reduction of abject poor households by 52% from 193 to 93. Reduction of abject poor households by 67% from 193 to 64.

19 Social effects - Winners and losers Winners Maize and tomato producers Women and youth School-age children Malnourished children Abject poor households Traders/stockists Local authorities Losers The landless Environmental activists Groups/individuals without linkages to agricultural based activities

20 Secondary effects (1) Increased maize production --- increased income --- poverty reduction. (Increased tomato production will have the same if not a larger effect) Reduction of poverty and positive changes in social well-being will lead to increased investments in economic activities which will lead to increased resources use as well as trade expansion.

21 Secondary effects (2) Trade expansion --- employment creation --- increased incomes and economic growth. Increased income, more use of natural resources, and increased use of agro-chemicals --- a negative effect on the environment --- harmful to economic growth --- counter productive to poverty reduction.

22 Recommendations (1) For ExAnte- or Concurrent Assessment Policy formulation and plans to show interconnection between economic growth, poverty reduction, trade and the environment For Ex-Post Assessment Formulation of bye-laws and regulations for environmental protection and trade promotion Provision of incentives for trade promotion and environmental protection

23 Recommendations (2) To improve the process of policy/plan-making  Raise awareness among members  Facilitate public participation in the interpretation of the issues at grass-root level  Give marginalized groups a chance of being heard.

24 Enabling conditions Skills development at district, ward and village level Awareness creation on environmental protection issues at the grass-root level Provision of information on alternative income generating activities at grass-root level.

25 Needed Actions Who  Government, Private sector, Civil society What  Plan formulation, Management and Implementation, M&E When  Before,during and after implementation of the plans

26 Lessons Learned (1) There is a link between economic growth, poverty, trade and the environment. Alternative income generating activities have different poverty reduction impact. Skills development, awareness creation and capacity building measures are essential for the achievement of the project objectives.

27 Lessons Learned (2) Gender equity is necessary for enhanced economic growth and poverty reduction. Political commitment is essential in preparing the policy/plan and its implementation. Good governance and the rule of law are essential for successful implementation of the policy/plan.

28 Thank you