U NIT 1 Objective 4: What are some limits on or intuition and common sense? Objective 5: How do psychological theories guide scientific research? Objective 6: How do psychologists use case studies, survey, & naturalistic obs. to observe & describe behavior, & why is random sampling important? Objective 7: What are positive & negative correlation, & how to they permit prediction w/o cause –effect explanation?

O BJECTIVE : W HAT ARE SOME LIMITS ON OR INTUITION AND COMMON SENSE ? HINDSIGHT BIAS “I-knew-it-all-along-phenomenon” “Absence makes the heart grow fonder” “Out of sight is out of mind.” If two opposite findings make sense, need science to prove. HINDSIGHT BIAS When drilling the Deepwater Horizon oil well in 2010, oil industry employees took some shortcuts and ignored some warning signs, without intending to harm the environment or their companies’ reputations. After the resulting Gulf oil spill, with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, the foolishness of those judgments became obvious.

T HE L IMITS OF I NTUITION AND C OMMON S ENSE Overconfidence People tend to think they know more than they do. This occurs in academic and social behavior. WREAT → WATER ETRYN → ENTRY GRABE → BARGE About how many seconds do you think it each anagram?

P OINT TO R EMEMBER … Hindsight Bias & Overconfidence often lead us to overestimate our intuition. Why use the scientific method? Using the scientific method can help us separate reality from illusion.

O BJECTIVE 5: H OW DO PSYCHOLOGICAL THEORIES GUIDE SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH ? Theory “mere hunch” Organizes observations & predicts behavior Produces testable predictions Hypothesis Testable prediction; implied by a theory Operational Definition Define research variables w/ precise procedures or measures Helps control for researcher bias; lets our research be replicated Replication Repeating research study Helps prove reliability of results

M ETHODS OF R ESEARCH descriptive methods – describe behavior correlational methods – show relationships between variables / associations predicts behavior experimental methods- show cause and effect relationship

D ESCRIPTIVE R ESEARCH M ETHODS (3) Case Study One person studied in depth Get ideas for new studies (+) Cannot learn general truths (-)

Survey Looks at many cases at once Word effects (-) Random sampling Representative sample (+) Population All cases in a group being studied from which the sample may be drawn Random Sample Each person in group has the same chance of participating. Large rep. samples are better than small Can’t compensate for unrep sample by adding more people

Naturalistic Observation Describes behavior as it happens in natural environment Doesn’t control for all the factors that can contribute to behavior (-)

D ESCRIPTION N ATURALISTIC O BSERVATION Naturalistic Observation What did you observe? see & hear? What is your interpretation of what you observed? underline all factual observations Circle all subjective statements

O BJECTIVE 7: W HAT ARE POSITIVE & NEGATIVE CORRELATIONS, AND WHY DO THEY ENABLE PREDICTION BUT NOT CAUSE - EFFECT EXPLANATION ? CorrelationCorrelation (correlation coefficient)correlation coefficient How well does A predict B; Positive versus negative correlation Strength of the correlation -1.0 to +1.0 (r) Scatterplot a graphed cluster of dots each dot represents the values of two variables. The slope of the points suggests the direction of the relationship between the two variables. The amount of scatter suggests the strength of the correlation (little scatter indicates high correlation). Says nothing about strength of prediction

Correlation

+.63

O BJECTIVE 7: W HAT ARE ILLUSORY CORRELATIONS ? Illusory Correlation When we believe there is a relationship we are likely to notice & recall instances that confirm our belief

C ORRELATION C ORRELATION AND C AUSATION Correlation helps predict Does not imply cause and effect Length of marriage correlates with hair loss in men. CORRELATION DOES NOT MEAN CAUSATION!!!

L AB #1: C ORRELATING N UMBERS & L ETTERS In your notebook, under your correlation notes, write title LAB#2 CORRELATION Write Results Letter Time (X Axis): ______ Number Time (Y Axis):_____ Record your data for class set (my computer) Write Scatterplot: (1/2 page) Plot class data & answer questions (WRITE ?s in notes) Letter Time X Axis Number Time Y Axis

INFO TO ADD UNDER S CATTERGRAM … L AB #1: C ORRELATING N UMBERS & L ETTERS 1. Positive or Negative Correlation? EXPLAIN 2. Strong or Weak Correlation? EXPLAIN 3. Would the correlation coefficient be closer to -1, 0, or 1.0? 4. What assumption could you safely draw if this data represented a perfect correlation?

InitialsLetter Time (X Axis) Number Time (Y Axis) InitialsLetter Time (X Axis) Number Time (Y Axis) 2nd period Letter Time X Axis Number Time Y Axis

O BJECTIVE 8: H OW DO EXPERIMENTS CLARIFY OR REVEAL CAUSE - EFFECT RELATIONSHIPS ? Define the following terms (leave 2 lines in between each of your definitions) Experiment Random Assignment Experimental Group Control Group Placebo Effect Double-Bind Procedure Independent Variable Dependent Variable HOMEWORK DUE WEDNESDAY