2 Hindsight biasTendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen itThe “I knew it all along” phenomenon
3 OverconfidenceTendency to think we know more than we do
4 AssignmentAnswer the following questions in complete sentences. You will be adding more to this later.Give an example of hindsight bias from your own life.Give an example of overconfidence from your own life.
5 Astrology E = Aries B = Taurus C = Gemini A = Cancer F = Leo D = Virgo K = LibraH = ScorpioI = SagittariusL = CapricornJ = AquariusG = Pisces
6 Testing hypotheses with descriptive methods Case study - studies one person in depth in hopes of revealing universal principlesSurvey - uses a representative sample of people to estimate attitudes or reported behaviors of a whole populationPopulation - all the cases in a group being studied from which samples may be drawnRandom sample - every member of a population has an equal chance of inclusion
7 Naturalistic observation - observing and recording behavior in a natural environment
8 Assignment –cont-Give an example of a study when researchers might use a case study.Give an example of an experiment when researchers might use a survey. How could they ensure a random sampling of the population?
9 CorrelationMeasures how closely two things vary together and thus how well either one predicts the otherGraphed on a scatterplot and measured with a correlation coefficientPositive = two sets of scores rise or fall togetherNegative = two sets of scores relate inverselyzero = weak correlationCORRELATION DOES NOT PROVE CAUSATION
10 Illusory correlationThe perception of a relationship where none exists
11 Assignment –cont-Give an example from your life of an illusory correlation.What can you conclude from this statement: Eating saturated fat and the likelihood of contracting cancer are positively correlated.
12 ExperimentationRandom assignment - assigning participants to experimental and control groups by chanceDouble blind procedure - neither the research participants nor the research staff know whether participants have received the treatment or a placeboPlacebo effect - experimental results caused by expectations alone
13 Experimental group - group exposed to treatment Control group - group not exposed to treatmentIndependent variable (IV) - experimental factor that is manipulatedConfounding variable - factor other than the IV that might produce an effect in an experimentDependent variable - outcome factor; variable that may change in response to manipulations of the IV
14 Statistical significance - observed difference is likely not due to chance variation between the samples
15 Assignment –cont-Develop a hypothesis and an experiment to test the hypothesis. Indicate the experimental and control groups, and independent, dependent and confounding variables.Someone participating in a study on the effects of alcohol on perception is told by the experimenter that he has been assigned to the high dose group. What is the problem with this?
16 Things to know for your first Psych test Nature vs. nurtureHindsight biasOverconfidenceHypothesisResearch methods – What is it? When is it used? Benefits and limitations?Case studySurveyNatural observationEthics in researchCorrelational studiesPositive correlationNegative correlationCorrelation coefficientRelationship between correlation and causationExperimentsIndependent variableDependent variableControl groupExperimental groupRandom samplePopulationPlacebos