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Research Methods Unit II

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Hindsight bias Tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it The “I knew it all along” phenomenon

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Overconfidence Tendency to think we know more than we do

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Assignment Answer the following questions in complete sentences. You will be adding more to this later. Give an example of hindsight bias from your own life. Give an example of overconfidence from your own life.

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**Astrology E = Aries B = Taurus C = Gemini A = Cancer F = Leo D = Virgo**

K = Libra H = Scorpio I = Sagittarius L = Capricorn J = Aquarius G = Pisces

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**Testing hypotheses with descriptive methods**

Case study - studies one person in depth in hopes of revealing universal principles Survey - uses a representative sample of people to estimate attitudes or reported behaviors of a whole population Population - all the cases in a group being studied from which samples may be drawn Random sample - every member of a population has an equal chance of inclusion

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**Naturalistic observation - observing and recording behavior in a natural environment**

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Assignment –cont- Give an example of a study when researchers might use a case study. Give an example of an experiment when researchers might use a survey. How could they ensure a random sampling of the population?

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Correlation Measures how closely two things vary together and thus how well either one predicts the other Graphed on a scatterplot and measured with a correlation coefficient Positive = two sets of scores rise or fall together Negative = two sets of scores relate inversely zero = weak correlation CORRELATION DOES NOT PROVE CAUSATION

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Illusory correlation The perception of a relationship where none exists

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Assignment –cont- Give an example from your life of an illusory correlation. What can you conclude from this statement: Eating saturated fat and the likelihood of contracting cancer are positively correlated.

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Experimentation Random assignment - assigning participants to experimental and control groups by chance Double blind procedure - neither the research participants nor the research staff know whether participants have received the treatment or a placebo Placebo effect - experimental results caused by expectations alone

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**Experimental group - group exposed to treatment**

Control group - group not exposed to treatment Independent variable (IV) - experimental factor that is manipulated Confounding variable - factor other than the IV that might produce an effect in an experiment Dependent variable - outcome factor; variable that may change in response to manipulations of the IV

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Statistical significance - observed difference is likely not due to chance variation between the samples

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Assignment –cont- Develop a hypothesis and an experiment to test the hypothesis. Indicate the experimental and control groups, and independent, dependent and confounding variables. Someone participating in a study on the effects of alcohol on perception is told by the experimenter that he has been assigned to the high dose group. What is the problem with this?

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**Things to know for your first Psych test**

Nature vs. nurture Hindsight bias Overconfidence Hypothesis Research methods – What is it? When is it used? Benefits and limitations? Case study Survey Natural observation Ethics in research Correlational studies Positive correlation Negative correlation Correlation coefficient Relationship between correlation and causation Experiments Independent variable Dependent variable Control group Experimental group Random sample Population Placebos

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