1. Hindsight Bias
Tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it.
“I knew it all along”
“Hindsight is 20/20”

2. Overconfidence Think we know more than we do!
Together with hindsight bias, can lead to overestimate our intuition

3. The Scientific Attitude
Three main components
Curious eagerness
Skeptically scrutinize competing ideas
Open-minded humility before nature

4. Critical Thinking
Critical Thinking: Thinking that does not blindly accept arguments & conclusions.
“Smart thinking”
Four elements:
Examines assumptions
Discerns hidden values
Evaluates evidence
Assesses conclusions

5. The Scientific Theory Theory = A mere “hunch”
Scientific theory = Observations
Scientific theory = explains through an integrated set of principles that organizes observations and predicts behaviors or events.

6. The Scientific Method
Evaluates competing ideas with careful observations & rigorous analysis to describe and explain human nature.
Observations
Problem
Hypothesis
Experiment
Data
Conclusion
Replication

7. Observations
Information about the problem.

8. Problem
Question based upon observations.

9. Hypothesis A statement of relationship between or among variable.
A suggested solution to the problem.
If…Then…

10. Experiment A procedure to test the hypothesis.
Control – experiment without the variable
Variable – factor being tested

11. Data
Results of the experiment.

12. Conclusion
The answer to the hypothesis.

13. Replicate
In order to verify the results, experiments must be retested.
Operational definitions

14. A good theory is useful if it:
The Scientific Method
A good theory is useful if it:
Effectively organizes a range of self-reports and observations
Implies clear predictions that anyone can use to check the theory

16. Observation Gathering of information by simply watching subjects
Can lead to bias

17. Bias
A factor unfairly increases a researcher reaching a particular conclusion

18. Researcher Bias
Notice evidence which supports one point of view or hypothesis.
Objectivity tends to reduce bias.

19. Participant Bias
Subjects respond in ways they believe the researcher wants them to behave
Know they are being observed
Naturalistic Observation

20. Naturalistic Observation
Observing & recording behavior in naturally occurring situations without trying to manipulate and control the situation.
Unaware they are being watched

21. Case Study
Observation technique in which one person is studied in depth in the hope of revealing universal principles.
Very open to bias… Why?

22. Correlational Study
Determines the degree to which two variables are related to one another…
Correlation Coefficient: a statistical index of the relationship between two things (from -1 to +1).

23. Positive Correlation
Value of 1 variable increases (or decreases) so does the value of the other variable.

24. Negative Correlation
Value of 1 variable increases, the value of the other variable decreases.

25. Zero Correlation
There is no relationship whatsoever between the two variables.

26. Correlational Study Don’t imply a cause and effect relationship
Doesn’t determine why 2 variables are related--
Helpful in making predictions.

28. Survey Method
Relies on self-reports: questionnaires, interviews, and surveys.
Efficient and inexpensive

29. Population Random Sample
The total group being studied from which a sample is drawn.
Random Sample
Represents a population fairly:
Equal chance of being included.
If it is not random it is said to be biased.

31. Independent Variable vs.
Causes something to happen
Manipulated by the experimenter
Should change the dependent variable
Effected by independent variable
Outcome of experiment
Variable being measured

32. Control Group Not exposed to the independent variable
Results are compared to those of the experimental group

33. Blind procedure
Participants are ignorant (blind) to the expected outcome of the experiment
Single blind procedure
Double blind procedure?

34. Placebo
Non-active substance or condition instead of a drug or active agent
Given to the control group

35. Placebo Effect Video Time…

36. Longitudinal Study Study same group of individuals many years
Very expensive and difficult to conduct

37. Cross-Sectional Study
Simultaneously study subjects from different age groups
Cheaper, easier
Differences may be due to factors other than development

38. Longitudinal/Cross Sectional Study

39. Ethics: Human Research (4 Basic Principles)
Module 2: Research Strategies
Ethics: Human Research (4 Basic Principles)

40. 2. Right to be Protected from Harm/Discomfort
1. Informed Consent
General nature of the research
Any potential risks
Refuse participation or withdraw
2. Right to be Protected from Harm/Discomfort
Conducted under certain circumstances
Only with the informed consent

41. 3. Right of Confidentiality
Individual data about participants should never be discussed or released.
4. Right to Debriefing
Receive complete explanation of research at end of the study.
Important if research involves deception.

42. Reasons for Animal Research
Interest in animal behavior
Data may apply to humans
Easier due to the shorter life span
Easier to control
Not ethical to perform on humans

43. Statistical Reasoning in Everyday Life

44. Describing Data Measures of Central Tendency
Central Tendency = a single score that represents a whole set of scores.

45. Describing Data Measures of Central Tendency
Mean = the average of a distribution, obtained by adding the scores and then dividing by the # of scores.

46. Describing Data Measures of Central Tendency
Median = the middle score in a distribution, half the scores are above it and half are below it.

47. Describing Data Measures of Central Tendency
Mode = the most frequently occurring score(s) in a distribution

48. Describing Data Measures of Variability
Range = the difference between the highest and lowest score in a distribution.
Standard Deviation= a computed measure of how much scores vary around the mean score.

49. Describing Data Measures of Variability
Normal Curve (bell shaped)

50. = a symmetrical, bell-shaped curve that describes the distribution of many types of data; most scored fall near the mean (68 percent fall within one standard deviation of it) and fewer and fewer near the extremes.

51. Making Inferences When Is an Observed Difference Reliable?
Representative samples are better than biased samples
Less-variable observations are more reliable than those that are more variable
More cases are better than fewer

52. Making Inferences When Is a Difference Significant?
Statistical significance
The averages are reliable
The differences between averages is relatively large
Does imply the importance of the results

53. The End