The changing demography of Scotland Alasdair Anthony General Register Office for Scotland

Scotland’s population, 1855 to 2008

Births and deaths in Scotland, 1951 to 2008

Changes to the population

Ageing

Changes to the population Ageing Migration

Ageing over the past 10 years

Ageing over the next 25 years

Very elderly population rising quickly

Ageing effect – projected dependency ratio Children Pension age Total dependants

Net migration since 1951

Origin of in-migrants to Scotland

Age profile of migrants

Rate of in-migration to council areas

Origin of migrants to Scotland

Migration statistics on GROS website: Comments and suggestions to Alasdair Anthony: Population and Migration Statistics General Register Office for Scotland

Allan Findlay ( Centre for Applied Population Research, University of Dundee) Community impacts of demographic change

Allan Findlay ( Centre for Applied Population Research, University of Dundee) The changing demography of Scotland – a selection of impacts at community level 1)Selective community impact of immigration (a) EU arrivals discussed by Alasdair (b) Segregation of ethnic minorities 2) Changing household composition (issues associated with single person households and HMOs) Research resources relating to the impacts of demographic change and the community Centre for Population Change (funded by ESRC) Scottish Longitudinal Survey (funded by Scottish Government, SFC, CSO, GROS and ESRC

Differential Segregation by Ethnicity

Is a community segregated by ethnicity or faith?

Migration Controversies Claim: Immigration has resulted in segregation and the growth of parallel communities Trevor Phillips chair of the Commission for Racial Equality said ‘Britain is sleepwalking towards segregation’ (2005) Research Evidence: Patterns of settlement by race or ethnicity are far from random or even Residential segregation tends to reflect particular histories of immigration (eg pattern of Pakistanis, Indians and Bangladeshis) Studies of 1991 and 2001 censuses refute claims of increased segregation – lower than in USA and much lower for some than in the past (Simpson, 2004) It can be argued that segregation reflects poverty, wealth and opportunity and not racial conflict Overall the evidence shows that as groups get wealthier, segregation declines and people move out of the city centres The most segregated groups are Jews and Sikhs, not Muslims. In Scotland Catholics are more segregated than any minority religious or ethnic group

De-segregation of Indians and Pakistanis in Glasgow and Dundee, (from Munoz, 2006, Centre for Applied Populaion Research, PhD student, Univ of Dundee) Segregation of both groups declines over time Segregation levels were higher for Pakistanis, but still declined overall Reduction in segregation was greater for both groups in Dundee than Glasgow.

Change in household numbers and composition, Source:GROS: Estimates of Households and Dwellings,Scotland 2008

Changing Household Composition (source- General Registrar Office, Scotland)

One person households by deprivation, 2008 (Source GROS Annual Review)

Distribution of single person households in Glasgow

Distribution of single person households in Edinburgh

Top 10 locations in Scotland for multiple occupancy households (not including pensioners) Council Sector Local AuthorityPercent multiple occupancy EH9 1Edinburgh City Council35.24 DD1 4Dundee City Council31.58 G12 8Glasgow City Council31.06 EH3 9Edinburgh City Council29.79 EH1 1Edinburgh City Council29.39 EH8 9Edinburgh City Council28.91 DD1 1Dundee City Council28.6 EH1 3Edinburgh City Council26.62 G4 9Glasgow City Council24.67 G3 7Glasgow City Council23.94

Distribution of multiple occupancy households in Edinburgh

Distribution of multiple occupancy households in Dundee

Media and policy concerns about Household of Multiple Occupancy –Eg National HMO Lobby ‘The Lobby therefore opposes concentrations of HMOs in general (as a unique threat to the sustainability of communities) and studentification in particular (as the principal cause and effect of HMO concentrations).’HMOsstudentification –Eg. the All Party Parliamentary Group for Balanced and Sustainable Communities ‘Whilst the group welcomes the contribution students make to towns and cities in the UK, it is concerned about the impact of an imbalance between student and local residents’ housing. The group therefore supports: changes in planning law to possibly control the amount of student housing in particular streets and thus ensure that our communities are balanced; a requirement to license all private rented accommodation, including student housing; adequate provision for family housing in all communities.’

What is the HMO problem? (source: D.Smith, 2009) 1.Higher levels of population transience (‘churn’) –Less attachment and sense of belonging –Breakdown of community cohesion –Lower levels of social capital / electoral voting –Fragmentation of sense of community 2.Increased density of population –Associated environmental challenges (e.g. refuse, litter, flytipping, car parking, noise) 3.Lack of affordable housing 4.Dilapidation of housing stock 5.Claimed higher levels of crime 6.Rise of uni-dimensional / mono population structures –Loss of social mixing 7.Increased resources required for day-to-day management (economic recession!) 8.Claimed to be the contradiction of balanced and sustainable communities

Percentage of dwellings with council tax ‘occupied exemptions’ (eg student households) Source: GROS, 2009

New data sets and new research 10+ new research projects starting across Scotland in 2009 (eg at Univ of Dundee on gangmasters and EU migrants)

Conclusions Demographic change at community level shows many changes that run contrary to public opinion (eg we are not ‘sleepwalking towards segregation) Demographic datasets help reveal patterns at community level that may differ from those popularly perceived (eg the difference between the pattern of self-identifying faith groups and those of perceived visible ethnic groups) Household change at local level points to significant community changes due to more single person households and to concentrations in particular locations of new household types (eg HMOs that ‘long-term residents’ may find threatening). Powerful new datasets now allow longitudinal analysis of key demographic groups and communities