I NDIA ’ S Q UEST FOR A L OWER C ARBON F OOTPRINT Ajay Shankar

I NDIA : T HE P RESENT S ITUATION Population 1.2 billion (Census 2011) GDP $1.7 trillion (IMF April 2011) Per capita GDP $1,380 (IMF April 2011) GDP Growth Rate Around 8.5% over last ten years 8 to 10% over next two decades TPES Growth Rate Around 3.5% (IEA) Electricity Capacity 173,326MW (CEA India April 2011) 400 million without access to electricity in 2001 (Census 2001)

T OTAL P RIMARY E NERGY S UPPLY

S HARE OF T OTAL E NERGY S UPPLY IN 2008

I NDIA ’ S R ELATIVE P OSITION (Source Selected Indicators 2008: Key World Energy Statistics 2010 IEA )

E MISSION I NTENSITY India’s Emission Intensity fell 35% between India’s Voluntary National Target is to further lower emission intensity by 20-25% between (Source Selected Indicators 2008: Key World Energy Statistics 2010 IEA )

E NERGY E FFICIENCY (Source Selected Indicators 2008: Key World Energy Statistics 2010 IEA )

F OSSIL F UELS IN E NERGY S UPPLY (Source Selected Indicators 2008: Key World Energy Statistics 2010 IEA )

E MISSION I NTENSITY (Source Selected Indicators 2008: Key World Energy Statistics 2010 IEA )

E NERGY E FFICIENCY Market Mechanism Cross subsidy in Electricity Pricing. De facto carbon Tax Over 50% Price signal + Competitive market structure Global Hub For Small Fuel Efficient Cars Energy Intensive Manufacturing; Steel, Cement, Paper Plants: Among Global Best Rapid Penetration of CFLs Regulatory Authority Electricity Conservation Act. Bureau of Energy Efficiency. Labeling of Appliances Standards. Moving Target Approach with Trading System Envisaged

C HALLENGES AND O PPORTUNITIES Challenges Contra Effect of Rising Incomes Opportunities Immediate. Technically Easy Waste in Subsidized Sector. Farmers Pump Sets For Irrigation SMEs Technical Losses in Electricity Supply Smart Grid Technically Difficult Green Buildings: Cost Competitiveness. Smart Green Cities Energy Efficient Urban Design Transport: Intra and Inter City. Key Parameter Electric Vehicles

L OWERING C ARBON E MISSIONS FROM E NERGY S UPPLY Need to Pursue All Options and Create Winners Policy Environment of: Fiscal Deficit and Very Limited Resource Price Sensitivity in a Low Income Democracy Renewable Energy Focus Separate Ministry since Eighties State Electricity Commissions (SERCs) Mandated by Electricity Act 2003 to Increase Share of Renewable Energy in Portfolio of Utilities. Marginal Increase in Cost to Consumer.

W IND Successful. Fifth Largest in World. Over 14,000 MW. Doubling of Capacity since Near Grid Parity. Growth Sustainable. Private Sector. Liberal Tax Incentives. Competitive Manufacturing Industry. Indian Firm Suzlon Reported World’s 3 rd Largest Onshore Potential 60-70,000MW Offshore Yet To Begin Energy Potential from Wind Modest

S OLAR M ISSION Program for 20,000MW by 2020 launched. First Phase 1000MW. Private Sector. Competitive Market Structure. Prices 30% Lower In One Year. Still High. Hope for Grid Parity.

N UCLEAR Domestic Industry Three Stage Program Grid Parity Civil Nuclear Agreement Prime Minister Singh Reiterates Commitment Target 20,000MW by 2020 Rapid Scaling Up Thereafter

O THER O PTIONS Biomass Small Village Level Plants with Cow Dung Crop Residue Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Indian Coal Pilot Project Shale Gas

S UMMARY Pursuit of Multiple Paths Competitive Market Structure + Scale Effect Innovation Frugal Engineering. Movement Down Cost Curve Grid Parity