1. Energy Security and Low Carbon Development in South Asia
Asoka Abeygunawardana
Executive Director - Energy Forum
Adviser to the Minister of Power and Energy
South Asia at night (satellite image)

2. GHG Emissions % by sectors in the South Asia
SAARC Statement on Climate Change
Also Mindful that the Member States of SAARC as developing countries face the dual challenge of addressing the negative impacts of climate change and pursuing socio-economic development
GHG Emissions % by sectors in the South Asia

3. South Asia average – but not 24 x 7
SAARC Statement on Climate Change
Also Mindful that the Member States of SAARC as developing countries face the dual challenge of addressing the negative impacts of climate change and pursuing socio-economic development
Electrification in South Asia in 2009
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010
South Asia average – but not 24 x 7

6. Source: IEA

7. Current Situation

8. India projections
Source: Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi

9. Green House Gases- Pakistan
2011
2020
2030
2040
2050
Total GHG Emissions (Mt CO2 eq.)
347
557
1046
2156
4621
Energy
176
295
560
1250
2730
% Share
50.6
52.9
53.5
58.0
59.1
Agriculture
134
210
408
812
1765
38.7
37.7
39.0
38.2
Industry 20 30 52 61 75
5.8
5.4
5.0
2.8
1.6
LULUCF 10 13 15 35
2.9
2.3
1.4
0.9
0.8
Waste 7 9 11 16
1.9
1.1
0.6
0.3

10. Generation Expansion Plan - Sri Lanka - 2009

11. Energy Supply Policy Who is paying for whom?
At 15 EUR/Ton & 0.78 kg/kWh
Who is paying for whom?

12. Energy Supply Policy
Theoretically Estimated Potential times the current need
Technically Feasible Potential
Economically Feasible Potential
Environmentally Sound Potential

13. SAARC Statement on Climate Change
Commission a study to explore the feasibility of establishing a SAARC mechanism which would provide capital for projects that promote low-carbon technology and renewable energy;
and a Low-carbon Research and Development Institute in South Asian University;
for bridging the gap between the avoided economic cost and avoided financial cost !!!

14. Thank you Low carbon economy: Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency and
Frugality- Life styles
Thank you

15. Carbon Emissions

16. India projections
Source: Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi

17. Equity and common but differentiated responsibilities
CO2 emissions peak
50% chance
peaking 500 ppm stabilize 450 ppm

19. India projections
Source: Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi

20. Projected Emission Intensity Reduction over 2005 levels
Voluntary commitment to lower its emission intensity by 20%-25% below the 2005 levels by 2020
Growth Scenarios:2020
8% growth
9% growth
Higher and Lower Ends of the Range
2005 Emissions DE AE
Emission Intensity (grams CO2eq/Rs GDP)
56.21
42.47
36.87
42.79
37.51
(%) Reduction in Emission Intensity
24.44%
34.40%
23.88%
33.27%
Emission intensity reduction of around % with determined effort and 34.4 % with aggressive effort compared to 2005.
Emission intensity reduction of around % with determined effort and % with aggressive effort compared to 2005.

21. Pursuing socio-economic development
Sri Lanka - 100% electrification by 2012
98 %<
95 – 98%
90 – 95%
85 – 90%
80 – 85%
70 – 80%
60 – 70%
50 – 60%
40 – 50%
40%>
100%
96%
90%
98%
88%
79%
91%
86%
84%
73%
82%
89%
60%
71%
72%
44%
68%
16%
10%
95%
94%
87%
85%
93%
75%
80%
70%
50%
40%

22. Comparative Map of India with Thermal Power Plants and level of household electrification

23. Energy Consumption - Pakistan
Energy Consumption
(% Growth)
3.7
4.8
5.2
5.6
5.7
% Share by Source
Gas
43.9
45.4
42.3
32.9
Oil
27.5
24.3
19.5
14.9
14.1
Electricity Sources
15.7
16.2
17.5
17.9
16.9
Coal
11.3
12.4
22.8
33.6
Other (incl. LPG)
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.2
2.6
Source: Shakeel Ahmad Ramay, Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Pakistan

24. Scenario-2
Clean Coal (gasification) + 15% RE + Clean Transport

25. Pursuing socio-economic development
Electricity Demand Forecast of Sri Lanka
Annual growth rate of 7-10%
Double the demand in every 10 years

26. Pakistan’s Renewable Energy Potential
(Summary)
Wind: ,000 MW
Solar: Million MW
Hydro-power: ,000 MW
Cogeneration/Biomass/W2E: 4,000 MW
Geothermal: ,000 MW
Alternate Fuels Large. TBD

27. Carbon Neutral Growth by 2020
SAARC Statement on Climate Change
Emphasizing the overriding importance of socio-economic development and poverty eradication in our region, and convinced that reducing dependence on carbon in economic growth and promoting climate resilience will promote both development and poverty eradication in a sustainable manner; 
Determined that South Asia should become a world leader in low-carbon technologies and renewable energy
Carbon Neutral Growth by 2020
CO2 Emissions (kTon)

28. Cost of renewable energy…??

29. Domestic Sector electricity Consumption Distribution in Sri Lanka 2009
North
South
Common but differentiated responsibilities

31. Satellite Night Images
South Asia
Europe
North America