Presentation on theme: "Energy Security and Low Carbon Development in South Asia"— Presentation transcript:
1 Energy Security and Low Carbon Development in South Asia Asoka AbeygunawardanaExecutive Director - Energy ForumAdviser to the Minister of Power and EnergySouth Asia at night (satellite image)
2 GHG Emissions % by sectors in the South Asia SAARC Statement on Climate ChangeAlso Mindful that the Member States of SAARC as developing countries face the dual challenge of addressing the negative impacts of climate change and pursuing socio-economic developmentGHG Emissions % by sectors in the South Asia
3 South Asia average – but not 24 x 7 SAARC Statement on Climate ChangeAlso Mindful that the Member States of SAARC as developing countries face the dual challenge of addressing the negative impacts of climate change and pursuing socio-economic developmentElectrification in South Asia in 2009Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010South Asia average – but not 24 x 7
8 India projectionsSource: Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi
9 Green House Gases- Pakistan 20112020203020402050Total GHG Emissions (Mt CO2 eq.)347557104621564621Energy17629556012502730% Share50.652.953.558.059.1Agriculture134210408812176538.737.739.038.2Industry20305261755.85.45.02.81.6LULUCF101315322.214.171.124.90.8Waste7911126.96.36.199.3
11 Energy Supply Policy Who is paying for whom? At 15 EUR/Ton & 0.78 kg/kWhWho is paying for whom?
12 Energy Supply PolicyTheoretically Estimated Potential times the current needTechnically Feasible PotentialEconomically Feasible PotentialEnvironmentally Sound Potential
13 SAARC Statement on Climate Change Commission a study to explore the feasibility of establishing a SAARC mechanism which would provide capital for projects that promote low-carbon technology and renewable energy;and a Low-carbon Research and Development Institute in South Asian University;for bridging the gap between the avoided economic cost and avoided financial cost !!!
14 Thank you Low carbon economy: Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency and Frugality- Life stylesThank you
19 India projectionsSource: Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi
20 Projected Emission Intensity Reduction over 2005 levels Voluntary commitment to lower its emission intensity by 20%-25% below the 2005 levels by 2020Growth Scenarios:20208% growth9% growthHigher and Lower Ends of the Range2005 EmissionsDEAEEmission Intensity (grams CO2eq/Rs GDP)56.2142.4736.8742.7937.51(%) Reduction in Emission Intensity24.44%34.40%23.88%33.27%Emission intensity reduction of around % with determined effort and 34.4 % with aggressive effort compared to 2005.Emission intensity reduction of around % with determined effort and % with aggressive effort compared to 2005.
21 Pursuing socio-economic development Sri Lanka - 100% electrification by 201298 %<95 – 98%90 – 95%85 – 90%80 – 85%70 – 80%60 – 70%50 – 60%40 – 50%40%>100%96%90%98%88%79%91%86%84%73%82%89%60%71%72%44%68%16%10%95%94%87%85%93%75%80%70%50%40%
22 Comparative Map of India with Thermal Power Plants and level of household electrification
23 Energy Consumption - Pakistan Energy Consumption(% Growth)188.8.131.52.65.7% Share by SourceGas43.945.442.332.9Oil27.524.319.514.914.1Electricity Sources15.716.217.517.916.9Coal11.312.422.833.6Other (incl. LPG)184.108.40.206.22.6Source: Shakeel Ahmad Ramay, Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Pakistan
24 Scenario-2Clean Coal (gasification) + 15% RE + Clean Transport
25 Pursuing socio-economic development Electricity Demand Forecast of Sri LankaAnnual growth rate of 7-10%Double the demand in every 10 years
26 Pakistan’s Renewable Energy Potential (Summary)Wind: ,000 MWSolar: Million MWHydro-power: ,000 MWCogeneration/Biomass/W2E: 4,000 MWGeothermal: ,000 MWAlternate Fuels Large. TBD
27 Carbon Neutral Growth by 2020 SAARC Statement on Climate ChangeEmphasizing the overriding importance of socio-economic development and poverty eradication in our region, and convinced that reducing dependence on carbon in economic growth and promoting climate resilience will promote both development and poverty eradication in a sustainable manner; Determined that South Asia should become a world leader in low-carbon technologies and renewable energyCarbon Neutral Growth by 2020CO2 Emissions (kTon)