PREVENTIVE WAR VS. PREEMPTIVE ACTION

I- Origins of the Concept (1/2) 9/11 Attacks on the World Trade Center : Global War On Terror President Bush Jr. Speech at the West Point Military Academy, June 1st 2002 : « If we wait for threats to fully materialize, we will have waited too long… We must take the battle to the enemy, disrupt his plans, and confront the worst threats before they emerge… our security will require all Americans to be forward-looking and resolute, to be ready for preemptive action when necessary to defend our liberty and to defend our lives. » National Security Strategy, September 2002 : « We must be prepared to stop rogue states and their terrorist clients before they are able to threaten or use weapons of mass destruction against the United States or our allies and friends… The greater the theat, the greater is the risk of inaction – and the more compelling the case for taking anticipatory action to defend ourselves, even if uncertainty remains as to the time and place of the enemy’s attack. To forestall or prevent such hostile acts by our adversaries, the United States will, if necessary, act preemptively. »

I- Source of the Debate (2/2) To « PRE-EMPT » : 3 meanings in English To « Prevent » : prévenir To « Forestall » : anticiper To « Preclude » : empêcher « Pre-empt » and to « Prevent » can be used interchangeably : « acting first » ≠ retaliation « Preemption » used repeatedly by US Officials but never explicitely defined in any speech : confusion fueled and manipulated by supporters of the « preemptive action » strategy « Pre-emption » used in a specific juridical context in French : transposed from English directly to the strategic field

TEMPORAL PROXIMITY OF THE THREAT Spectrum of Anticipation Concepts : Definitions PREEMPTIVE ACTION PREVENTIVE WAR DEFENSE ESTABLISHMENT : « Incontrovertible evidence » « Imminent attacks ». ACADEMIC COMMUNITY : Seize the initiative : « the first mover gains an important advantage » First move by the opponent is imminent. Incentive is two-sided : win-win Evidence of an attack in the short term. DEFENSE ESTABLISHMENT : Inevitable military conflict (not imminent) Delay involves great risk. ACADEMIC COMMUNITY : Favorable conditions : « Engage an opponent before it gains relative strength » Incentive is one-sided : « the declining state wants immediate war ». Perception of an attack in the longer term. Evidence Perception TEMPORAL PROXIMITY OF THE THREAT Preventive war : « Action based on foresight and free choice » Spectrum of Anticipation Preemptive Action : « Reflex action » 4

Objective : making a preventive war look like a preemptive action. Preemptive or preventive in international law ? Preemptive action: Goal : Preventive self defense Legality : Yes if imminent threat Logic : defensive Ie : Caroline Affair 1837. Ie : Israeli attacks against the Egyptian Air Force in 1967. Preventive war : Goal : Preventive self defense Legality : No, distant and uncertain threat Logic : Offensive Ie : Destruction of the Iraqi powerplant in Osiraq (June 1981). Ie : Iraqi Freedom 2003. Objective : making a preventive war look like a preemptive action.

Side Effects to public discussion of pre-emption Issues Definition problems Difficulty in defining the « imminence » of a threat : « Convergent Threat » : accuracy of estimations? Possibility of defining trigger points for action? Side Effects to public discussion of pre-emption Effects on potential adversaries : Goal : sending a deterrent message to rogue states regarding WMD proliferation and terrorist support. Risks : warning enemies and making rogue states more determined to acquire or maintain WMD. Effects on friends and allies : Goal : creating a consensus and preparing the public for « pre-emptive » use of force. Risks : alienating friends and allies.

Grey Zone = Converged threat New Threats : Development of a « Grey Zone » Extension of the concept of « preemption ». Grey Zone = Converged threat 3 threats components : Rogue States Terrorists WMD Sources : FISH J.M., McCRAW S.J., REDDISH C.J., Fighting in the Gray zone: a strategy to close the preemption gap, Strategic Studies Institute Home, septembre 2004

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