1. 1 American National Security In the Coming Decade 17.471 American National Security Policy

2. 2 Determinants & Influences National Interests? National Interests? Threats Threats Domestic Politics Domestic Politics Personalities/ Bureaucratic Interests Personalities/ Bureaucratic Interests Organizational Interests Organizational Interests Partisan Politics Partisan Politics Interest groups Interest groups Public Opinion Public Opinion History History Technology Technology Economy Economy International Politics International Politics Friends & Allies International Law International Law 17.471 American National Security Policy

3. 3 Prominent Threats Challenges to US Survival? Challenges to US Survival? Challenges to US Domestic Security? Challenges to US Domestic Security? Challenges to US Prosperity? Challenges to US Prosperity? Economic prosperity Economic prosperity Social prosperity Social prosperity Political prosperity Political prosperity Challenges to US Hegemony? Challenges to US Hegemony? 17.471 American National Security Policy

4. 4 Weapons of Mass Destruction 17.471 American National Security Policy

5. 5 WMD Nuclear & radiological Nuclear & radiological Chemical Chemical Biological Biological Delivery Systems Delivery Systems Missiles Missiles Ballistic Ballistic cruise cruise long-range aircraft long-range aircraft 17.471 American National Security Policy

6. 6 Nuclear Proliferation 1945-1995 1945-1995 US, USSR, UK US, USSR, UK 1956-1965 1956-1965 France, China France, China Canada, Sweden, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Japan, Italy, Canada, Sweden, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Japan, Italy, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Australia, Hungary 1966-1975 1966-1975 India, (Israel) India, (Israel) Rumania, Norway, Switzerland, Yugoslavia, Argentina, Brazil, Spain, Rumania, Norway, Switzerland, Yugoslavia, Argentina, Brazil, Spain, Egypt, Taiwan, Turkey, South Korea 1976-1985 1976-1985 (South Africa) (South Africa) Bulgaria, Greece, Austria Bulgaria, Greece, Austria 1986-2005 1986-2005 Pakistan Pakistan Iraq, Iran, N. Korea Iraq, Iran, N. Korea 17.471 American National Security Policy

7. 7 Nuclear Proliferation as a Threat Nuclear Weapons for Regional Powers Nuclear Weapons for Regional Powers Limits US intervention options Limits US intervention options Nuclear Weapons in conflict dyads Nuclear Weapons in conflict dyads Likelihood of nuclear use Likelihood of nuclear use Vulnerability Vulnerability C 3 C 3 Likelihood of use against US friends & US territory Likelihood of use against US friends & US territory Political & economic instability affects markets Political & economic instability affects markets Nuclear Weapons in weak states Nuclear Weapons in weak states Loose Nukes Loose Nukes Virtual Nuclear Arsenals Virtual Nuclear Arsenals 17.471 American National Security Policy

8. 8 Coping with Nuclear Proliferation Baruch Plan(1946) Baruch Plan(1946) Atoms for Peace(1955) Atoms for Peace(1955) Non-Proliferation Treaty(1968) Non-Proliferation Treaty(1968) Bi-lateral actions Bi-lateral actions S. Korea & Taiwan(1970s & 1980s) S. Korea & Taiwan(1970s & 1980s) Pakistan(1980s) Pakistan(1980s) N. Korea(1993-1994) N. Korea(1993-1994) Former Soviet Union(1992-present) Former Soviet Union(1992-present) 17.471 American National Security Policy

9. 9 Chemical & Biological Weapons Biological Weapons Treaty(1972) Biological Weapons Treaty(1972) 17.471 American National Security Policy

10. 10 U.S. Options 17.471 American National Security Policy

11. 11 Nuclear Weapons How can nuclear weapons enhance U.S. national security in the years ahead? How can nuclear weapons enhance U.S. national security in the years ahead? Are there drawbacks? Are there drawbacks? Historical Perspective Historical Perspective What roles have nuclear weapons played in American National Security Policy? What roles have nuclear weapons played in American National Security Policy? Who were the advocates for nuclear weapons? Who were the advocates for nuclear weapons? What did they advocate? What did they advocate? Where there opponents? Where there opponents? What were their arguments? What were their arguments? 17.471 American National Security Policy

12. 12 Extended Deterrence How do we convince potential adversaries that they cannot attain their goals by threatening US interests? How do we convince potential adversaries that they cannot attain their goals by threatening US interests? Capability Capability Credibility Credibility Communication Communication Punishment vs. Denial Punishment vs. Denial Conventional Arms vs. Nuclear Arms Conventional Arms vs. Nuclear Arms Threat vs. Use Threat vs. Use 17.471 American National Security Policy

13. 13 Other Measures New Technologies New Technologies Missile Defense(?) Missile Defense(?) Special Forces Special Forces Financial Warfare Financial Warfare Intelligence Collection & Analysis Intelligence Collection & Analysis Foreign Foreign domestic domestic 17.471 American National Security Policy