Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia Post Gu th August 2011 Gedo Region EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC Information for Better Livelihoods

Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations Normal access in all districts and livelihoods except pockets in Elwaq and Garbaharey districts, which are the frontline of the two warring parties

Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income 2 Agropastoral Livelihoods (Southern agropastoral and Gedo-Bay agropastoral high potential)  Southern agro-pastoral are more pastoral than agriculturalists. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment (fodder and bush products sales); main sources of food: purchase and own production  Gedo-Bay agropastoral are more agriculturalists than pastoralists. Main sources of income: sale of crops, livestock products and labour; main sources of food: own crop production and purchases. Riverine Livelihood (Juba riverine pump irrigation) are agriculturalists. Main sources of income: sale of crops and labour; main sources of food: purchase and own crop production. Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income 2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southern Inland and Dawa Pastoralists)  Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products  Primary sources of food of poor: purchase and own production  Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, cattle and sheep/goat

Overall statement: The overall performance of the season was erratic and below normal in most parts of the region. Start of Season: started on time (2 nd dekad of April in most southern parts of the region and Luq district in the north. Temporal and Spatial Distribution: 2-3 days of rain were received in most parts of the region with poor intensity and moderate distribution. Poor Rains: all livelihoods in Gedo have received poor rains between 2 nd dekad of April and 3 rd dekad of May. No Rains: Localized areas of Garbaharey and Belethawa districts have received no rains. Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term mean) Climate Gu 2011 Seasonal Performance

Climate Vegetation Conditions Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

Civil Security Situation: Increased political confrontation and military clashes over the last 6 months Increased number of military bases and road blocks Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: Increased population displacement towards refugees camps in Kenya and Ethiopia Imposed restrictions on trade movement in Gedo Asset losses, e.g. burning houses and vehicles. Limited pastoral mobility and restricted access to pasture and water points. Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster Civil Insecurity

Agriculture Gu 2011 Crop Production Estimates Districts Gu 2011 Production in MT Total Cereal Gu 2011 as % of Gu 2010 Gu 2011 as % of Gu PWA ( ) Gu 2011 as % of 5 year average ( ) MaizeSorghum Baardheere % 19% Belet Xaawo 6064%3%15% Ceel Waaq 0000% Dolow %36%89% Garbahaarey/B uur Dhuubo %33%63% Luuq %22%41% Gedo Gu 2011 Total %13%26%

Agriculture Trends in Regional Gu Cereal Production Trends Gu Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2011) Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2011)

Agriculture Gu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates Districts Livelihoo d Zone TomatoWatermelonCowpeaSesameOnion Total (Mt) Production (Mt) BardereRiverine GarbahareyRiverine LuuqRiverine Beled haawoRiverine DolowRiverine Total regionRiverine ,4201,552

Agriculture Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Failed sorghum production. Tubaako, Baardera, July 2011 Complete crop failure. Habadeer, Baardera, July 2011 Harvested palm leaves Surguduud, Dolo, July 2011 Nursery stage onion crop. Taaganey, Luuq, July 2011

Agriculture Gu 2011 Local Cereal Flow

Agriculture Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices (S.Gedo - Bardhere) Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices (N.Gedo - Luuq)

Agriculture Regional Trends in Daily Labour Wages Regional Trend in Daily Labour Rate (Bardhere) Regional Trend in Daily Labour rate (Luuq) Factors Influencing Wage Labour: South Gedo: High labour in- migration into riverine areas for cash crop activities, resulting in increased competition and reducing wage rates. North Gedo: wage rates slightly increased in July due to low supply of labour resulting from escalated conflict in Luuq district

Agriculture Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Regional Trend in Daily labor rate /Sorghum (Bardhere) Regional Trend in Daily Labor Rate/Sorghum (Luuq) Contributing Factors : In South: decline of labour wage rate and increased sorghum price reducing the ToT. Northern districts: Slight increase of labour wage rate, hence slight increase in the ToT.

Below average rangeland conditions across the region Average water conditions, except in catchment area of Elwaq and Belethawa. Poor livestock body condition for cattle and goats and average for camel. Abnormal migration: Most of the camel migrated to Juba, while cattle migrated to Somali Region of Ethiopia Livestock Rangeland Conditions, Water and Livestock Migration Gu 2011

Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production RegionLivelihoods Conception (Gu ’11) Calving/kidding (Gu ‘11) Milk production (Gu ‘11) Expected calving/ kidding Jul – Dec ‘11 Trends in Herd Size Projected in (Dec ‘11) Gedo Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: low Cattle: none Sh/goat: low Camel: low Cattle: none Sh/goat: none very low Camel: low Cattle: none Sh/goat: low Camel: decreasing trend( Below Baseline) Cattle: decreased (Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below Baseline) Dawo pastoral Camel: low Cattle: none Sh/goat: low Camel: low Cattle/sh/goat: none very low Camel: low Cattle: none Sh/goat: low Camel: decreased (Below Baseline) Cattle: decreased (Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below Baseline) Southern Agro-pastoral Camel: low Cattle: none Sh/goat: low Camel: low Cattle/Sh/goat: none very low Camel: low Cattle: none Sh/goat: low Camel: decreased (Below Baseline) Cattle: decreased (Below Baseline) Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below Baseline)

Markets Livestock Prices

Livestock Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Regional Trends in Terms of Trade between local goat/red sorghum (Bardhere) Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices (Luuq)

Livestock Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Poor camel condition.Garsaal, Ceelwaaq, Gedo, July Early migration camel to Juba. Irida, Belethawa, Gedo, July Poor water availability. Haadfuul Belethawa, Gedo, July Cattle hand fed. Sarinley, Baardera, Gedo, July 2011.

Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Prices of most of the import commodities increasing (last six months) Factors Influencing Commercial Import Prices: Increasing global prices Restricted trade movements due to conflicts. Increased transport costs between Mogadishu and Gedo due to increased taxation, road blocks and fuel prices Markets

RegionNutrition Surveys (July 11) Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12.5cm % %<11.5cm) Health Information System TFC/OTP/ SFC Other relevant information – Key driving factors Summary of analysis and change from Deyr ’10/11 Gedo Gedo Pastoral GAM =24.7 (21.0 – 28.8) SAM = 7.1 ( ) (FSNAU & partners, Junly’11 R=1) Gedo Riverine GAM = 48.1 (38.6 – 57.8) and SAM = 25.2 ( ) (FSNAU & partners, July ‘11, R=1) Gedo Agro-pastoral GAM = 51.3 ( ) and SAM= 19.1 ( ) (FSNAU & partners, July’11, R=1) MUAC <12.5 = 24 MUAC <11.5 = 5 High and Increasing number of acutely malnourished children reported in facilities in pastoral and agro-pastoral and riverine livelihoods ( Source: TROCARE, AMA, SRCS, HIRDA HIS Data, Jan-June’11 R=3) OTP admission show with high and increasing number of severely malnourished children admitted in OTP in the riverine facilities (TROCARE, HIRDA, AMA- Jan-June’11, R=3) Gedo Pastoral – Very Critical- No change from Very Critical phase in Deyr’10/11 and the Nutrition situation is likely to continue deterioration Gedo Riverine: Critical- No change from Deyr’10/11. and the Nutrition situation is likely to continue deterioration Gedo Agro-pastoral No change from Deyr’10/11 and the Nutrition situation is likely to continue deterioration Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings

GEDO Nutrition Situation Estimates Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011 Aggravating factors:  Impact of failed Gu 2011 rains affecting crop and livestock production and resulting in limited access to milk and poor diet quality in agropastoral and riverine livelihood zones  High morbidity (AWD and suspected measles) and poor health seeking behaviors  Limited access to safe water, sanitation and health facilities  Poor infant and young child feeding practices Mitigating factors  Access of milk and milk products to the pastoral livelihood zone  Increased charcoal burning for income to buy food (but with long-term negative impact on the environment)  Sale of fodder among the riverine communities generating income for food and non-food items Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of Nutrition Situation ( )

GEDO Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation Key IPC Reference Outcomes (Aug-Sep) Urban Population: 75%P in HE; 25%P in AFLC; 25%M in AFLC Rural Population: Southern Agropastoral (100% P-HE; 50% M-HE; 50% M- AFLC) Agropastoral High Potential (50% P- Famine; 50%P - HE; 100% M -HE) Riverine (100% P – HE; 50% M- HE ;50% M – AFLC) Southern Inland Pastoral (25% P-HE; 75% P – AFLC) Dawo Pastoral (25%P - HE; 75%P – AFLC) Acute Malnutrition: Very Critical, likely to deteriorate Food Access: Populations in HE (severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcalppp day) while those in AFLC (lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset Stripping) Water Access: Populations in HE (< 7.5 litres ppp day - human usage only); in AFLC ( litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping) Destitution/Displacement: Populations in HE (concentrated; increasing); in AFLC (emerging; diffuse) Coping: Populations in HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference); in AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing Livelihood Assets: Populations in HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); in AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access MAP 2: IPC, Current Situation MAP 1: IPC, April 2011

GEDO Main Influencing Factors for Rural IPC Situation Aggravating Factors : 1.Poor Gu 2011 rainfall performance (40-60% of normal) leading to:  Significantly reduced cereal production (13% of PWA) with a complete sorghum failure (riverine maize 13% of PWA, sorghum 0% of PWA)  Absence of cereal stocks due to several consecutive seasons of poor crop production/failure  Poor pasture and water access/availability  Reduced herd size for all species of livestock, particularly cattle, sheep and goats  Decrease of livestock reproduction and low milk production  Low livestock prices mainly due to deteriorated body conditions (June 2011 prices: Camel 72%, cattle 56% and goats 71% of June 2010 levels in Bardera and Luuq markets)  Reduced access to saleable animals  Increased cereal prices and deteriorated terms of trade 40% (from 10kg to 4kg daily labor rate to red sorghum) and 24% (from 100kg in June kg of sorghum/goat in June 2011)  Abnormal livestock migration and family splitting (towards Juba and Somali Region of Ethiopia) and reduced milk availability 2.Civil insecurity (military skirmishes since March in the districts of Beled Hawa, Luuq, Garbaharey and Elwak) resulting in displacements and trade disruption from inland to the border markets; Mitigating Factors :  Limited agricultural labour opportunities in the riverine (Dolow, Luuq and Bardhere)  High holding of camel although below the baseline levels (77% of BL in SIP)  Cereal supply through cross-border trade with Ethiopia (Dolow) and Kenya (Belet Hawa)  Improved humanitarian interventions  Social support

Gedo Rural Population in Crisis by District Gedo - Affected Districts UNDP 2005 Rural Population Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Deyr2010/11Gu 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Famine Baardheere 80,628 9,000011,00031,000 9,000 Belet Xaawo42,392 11,0001,00010,0009,000 0 Ceel Waaq15, ,0001,000 0 Doolow20,821 5,0001,0005,000 0 Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo39,771 10,0001,00012,00014,000 0 Luuq48,027 9,0001,00010,00014,000 0 SUB-TOTAL247,07644,0004,000 51,00074,000 9,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE48,000134,000

Gedo Rural Population in Crisis by Livelihood Zone Gedo Region and Affected Livelihood Zones Estimated Population of Affected Livelihood Zones Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Deyr 2010/11GU 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Famine Bay-Bakool Agro-Pastoral26,607 9, ,0009,000 Dawa Pastoral81,654 27,000023,00013,0000 Juba Pump Irrigated Riverine31,236 2,00008,00019,0000 Southern Agro-Pastoral31,751 6,0004,00011,00023,0000 Southern Inland Pastoral75, ,0004,0000 SUB-TOTAL247,07644,0004,000 51,00074,0009,000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE48,000134,000

Gedo Urban Population in Crisis District UNDP 2005 Total Population UNDP 2005 Urban Population Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergenc y (HE) Total in AFLC or HE as %of Urban population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Gedo Baardheere 106,17225,5448,0003,000435,0008,00051 Belet Xaawo 55,98913,5973, ,0004,00051 Ceel Waaq 19,9964,5591, , Doolow 26,4955,6741, ,0002,00053 Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo 57,02317,2525,0002,000413,0005,00046 Luuq 62,70314,6763, ,0004,00048 Sub-Total 328,37881,30221,0005, ,00024,00049

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