Workshop on Emissions Projections (Bonn, Germany) “General and Cross-Cutting Issues” Takaaki Ito Ministry of the Environment, Japan

2  ”Guideline for Measures to Prevent Global Warming”  ”Guideline for Measures to Prevent Global Warming” was adopted in March, 2002, by the Cabinet overall structure of policies and measures  The Guideline describes overall structure of policies and measures for Japan to achieve the reduction target in Kyoto Protocol, including the GHG emissions projection  Submission of NC3 in accordance with the Guideline  Submission of NC3 in accordance with the Guideline in May, 2002 updated GHG emissions projection will be comprised  Revision of the Guideline is currently underway; updated GHG emissions projection will be comprised in ”New Guideline for Measures to Prevent Global Warming”  ”Guideline for Measures to Prevent Global Warming”  ”Guideline for Measures to Prevent Global Warming” was adopted in March, 2002, by the Cabinet overall structure of policies and measures  The Guideline describes overall structure of policies and measures for Japan to achieve the reduction target in Kyoto Protocol, including the GHG emissions projection  Submission of NC3 in accordance with the Guideline  Submission of NC3 in accordance with the Guideline in May, 2002 updated GHG emissions projection will be comprised  Revision of the Guideline is currently underway; updated GHG emissions projection will be comprised in ”New Guideline for Measures to Prevent Global Warming” Submission of NC3

3 A. CO 2 from energy sources 1. Industrial sector Production by each industries Energy saving technologies Fuel conversion energy types New energy CO 2 from electricity Emission Measures in the energy industries sector ◆ Projection of economic growth is determined by the Cabinet separately  Economic trend  Changes in industrial structure, etc. energy consumption

4 A. CO 2 from energy sources 2. Transport sector Traffic demand Eco-driving Fuel conversion (Bio-ethanol) energy consumption energy types CO 2 from electricity Emission Measures in the energy industries sector ◆ GHG emission projection from transportation was estimated in NC3, too  Economic trend  Changes in population, etc. Modal shift Driving condition Transportation efficiency Fuel efficiency

5 A. CO 2 from energy sources 3. Commercial and other sector Number of employees and floor space Energy saving equipment Fuel conversion energy consumption energy types New energy (solar power) CO 2 from electricity Emission Measures in the energy industries sector ◆ Methodology and assumptions were difficult to decide due to the lack of relevant statistics  Changes in employees population  Growth rate of floor area  Trend in buildings, etc. Insulation efficiency Working style

6 A. CO 2 from energy sources 4. Residential sector Number of household and equipment energy types CO 2 from electricity Emission Measures in the energy industries sector ◆ Methodology and assumptions were difficult to decide due to the lack of relevant statistics  Change in household  Trend in equipment  Trend in housings, etc. Energy saving equipment Insulation efficiency Lifestyle New energy (solar power) energy consumption

7 A. CO 2 from energy sources 5. Energy industries sector Demand for electricity Nuclear power energy types New energy Emission ◆ CO 2 emission from generation of electricity is estimated using projected total electricity consumption from all sectors  Trend in electricity consumption of each sectors, etc. Fuel Conversion

8 B. CO 2 from non-energy sources, Ch 4, N 2 O 1. Industrial Processes Production by relevant industries Removal from exhaust gas measures and policies Use of mixed cement Emission  Economic trend  Changes in industrial structure, etc.

9 B. CO 2 from non-energy sources, Ch 4, N 2 O 2. Agriculture Production by crops and livestock Feed management measures and policies Biomass energy Emission  Economic trend  Changes in industrial structure, etc. Management of farms ◆ Projection of crop and livestock production is determined by the Cabinet separately

10 B. CO 2 from non-energy sources, Ch 4, N 2 O 3. Waste Volume of waste Emission  Economic trend  Changes in population, etc. ◆ Projection of waste generation is determined by the Cabinet separately reduction of waste management types Collection and reuse Recycling Combustion at higher temperature Management of sewage

11 Thank you !!