Meeting Of The European Directors of Social Statistics Common strategy on potential breaks in time series Item 4.1 of the draft agenda Meeting Of The European Directors of Social Statistics Luxembourg, 2-3 March 2017 Eurostat

Overview Background Current Eurostat proposal Way forward Exchange of views form DSS opinion Eurostat

1 - Background February 2016: first discussion in the DSS April 2016: Written consultation of the DSS October 2016:DSS agreement on developing a common strategy at European level limited to the LFS Since then, discussion with: Key users LAMAS (December 2016) EMCO IG (January 2017)

2 – Current Eurostat proposal Correction for breaks for "Europe 2020 indicators", "MIP", "Euro indicators/PEEIs", "Employment and Social Policy Indicators" and "Sustainable Development indicators" only Minimum requirement on Member States - compulsory transmission of at least: One factor for the impact of the break (quarterly – preferably Q2 or Q4 - or yearly) For 20 series (indicators/breakdowns)

2 – Current Eurostat proposal Beyond minimum requirement, MS can transmit: Two to six factors for the impact of the break (one annual factor plus 1-5 quarterly factors (impact of the break estimated on 1/2/3/4/5 quarters)) For more than the 20 series Provide back-calculation from 2008 Eurostat to produce complementary information

2 – Current Eurostat proposal Several methodological approaches possible to estimate the impact of the break: Run a parallel data collection Run a pilot survey (with a reduced sample) Build a model using external information Combination of the previous 3 approaches

2 – Current Eurostat proposal Policy requirements for break-free time series For the MIP and EU-2020 strategy A total of twelve-year time series required Data requirements for the EU-2020 strategy and MIP to be satisfied: Till the 2019 exercise: old data series For the 2020 exercise: old data series for the 2010-2018 period and 2019 data forecasted accordingly For the 2021 exercise: data collected for 2019-2020 under IESS and 2009-2018 data back-calculated

2 – Potential breaks in time series Reference year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Old series X   New series (Y)* Y Break-free time series needed : For the EU 2020 strategy: - 2018 exercise - 2019 exercise - 2020 exercise - 2021 exercise  X  O O Z For the MIP: - 2022 exercise X : old series; Y: new series; Z: forecasted; O: back-calculation

3 – Way forward April 2017: proposal to LAMAS by one of the TFs (TF1) preparing the implemention of IESS for the LFS May 2017: TF1 proposal checked, and reviewed if necessary, by a small group of non-TF1 members June 2017: LAMAS proposal on the strategy Autumn 2017: decision by DSS

4 – Exchange of views forms Time schedule too tight (2018 if IESS enters into force in 2019) Too ambitious and resource demanding Too many indicators (20) Severe breaks in time series expected? Financial support required

4 – Exchange of views forms Methodology to be used Minimum set of factors (2 to 5 quarterly – 1 yearly) Year of dissemination of new series (2021?) Need for a common dissemination strategy for MUR

DSS is invited to give views on the Eurostat proposal 5 – Discussion DSS is invited to give views on the Eurostat proposal