1. Meeting of the Directors of Social Statistics 23-24 February 2016
Agenda Item 5.2 IESS - Potential breaks in time series

2. Background Breaks in time series is not a new issue for social surveys
Need to tackle potential breaks linked to:
The new IESS FR
The new ICLS resolution
And on-going modernisation of social surveys in several countries

3. Background Focus on breaks impacting main policy needs:
EU2020 strategy (employment rate, tertiary educational attainment, early leavers from education & training, people at risk of poverty or social exclusion)
Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP) (unemployment, activity, long term unemployment rate, youth unemployment rates)
Principal European Economic Indicators (PEEIs) (seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment rate)
Only EU-LFS and EU-SILC are concerned

4. Sources for possible breaks
EU-LFS
EU-SILC
Changes in definitions, methodology, process innovation, IT systems, new/change in sampling frames (census), increased use of adm data
Changes in data collection modes
New employment/unemployment definitions linked to ICLS
Regionalisation of SILC
Introduction of flow charts for employment and unemployment
Implementation of new material deprivation indicators
Introduction of infra-annual rotational pattern in some countries
Change of frequency of some variables
New precision requirements at NUTS2 level
Reinforcement of the use of administrative data
New deadlines for MUR
6 year rotational pattern
Wave approach/new questions

5. Which sources to be tackled?
Net effect of the different sources of breaks
Priority for:
Which sources to be tackled?
Net effect of the different sources of breaks
Priority for:
EU-LFS
EU-SILC
Flow charts/model questionnaire
6 year rotational panel
New employment/unemployment definitions (ICLS resolution)
Regionalisation
Severe material deprivation indicator
Data collection modes

6. How to tackle the issue?
Run in parallel old and new systems (variables/breakdowns for which the two sets are to be provided to be identified)
Too costly
Other methods:
Randomised experiments
Comparison with other sources
Exploitation of longitudinal data

7. How to tackle the issue? Organise a workshop
Inventory of actions planned at national/EU levels
Communication strategy
Move date of first implementation of IESS

8. Floor is open for discussion