1. LAMAS Working Group 29 June-1 July 2016
Agenda Item 7.1 Labour market flows – Q2016 paper
Eurostat

2. Overview Demand for labour market flow breakdowns Sample size
Age, education, duration of unemployment,…
Sample size
Weighting
Flexibility
Eurostat

4. Weighting and flexibility
Current weights for flows derived from re-calibration on ILO status, by sex, 15-74
Further detail not possible, zeros in matrix already now
Not possible to adapt re-weighting to breakdowns
 No reconciliation stocks and flows

5. How to meet demand nevertheless?
(Very) long run: improve sample size, provide matched micro-data with longitudinal weights
For small countries, this may not be a solution
Short run: use simple regressions to extract information
Again, limits for small countries

6. Issues Modelling in general Which method, regression specification?
modelling is already used, also in survey data
replace descriptive statistics, no causality
Which method, regression specification?
simple model, use variables of interest for breakdowns
logit, interaction terms, present predicted probabilities
Use of weights in regression
use of weights determined by available technical information and regressors
results similar with and without use of weights

7. Alternative: predicted probabilities derived from regression results
Simple logit applied to flows of interest
Include interaction effects for variables to interest
Evaluate marginal effects, derive predicted probabilities

8. Example: flow unemployment to employment, Spain, 2014Q2-Q3
Dependent variable = 1 if move from unemployment to employment
Regressors: sex, age, age squared, unemployment duration, education and interaction terms age/age squared and unemployment duration

12. LAMAS is invited to:
Take note of the developments in the field of labour market flows
Rest assured that Eurostat will not publish official statistics based on experimental methodology without agreement of members of the LAMAS

13. LAMAS Working Group 29 June-1 July 2016
Agenda Item 7.2 Main indicators
Eurostat

14. First publication
First publication of seasonally adjusted LFS data on April 26
Complete revision of online database
No break corrections so far, first other developments

15. Way forward Decouple monthly and quarterly unemployment
Base long-term unemployment and unemployment ratios completely on quarterly LFS
Separate seasonal adjustment of quarterly unemployment, better comparability and coherence of complete data set

16. LAMAS Working Group 29 June-1 July 2016
Agenda Item 7.3 Release calendar
Eurostat

17. Release calendar Main indicators 14/07/2016 13/10/2016 (press release)
19/01/2017
second half of April 2017
(2016 results, min. 3 press releases)
Flow statistics
26/08/2016 (pr)
25/11/2016 (pr)
end of February 2017 (pr)
end of May 2017 (pr)