1. Item 4.1: Annual labour market flows
MEETING OF THE EUROPEAN DIRECTORS OF SOCIAL STATISTICS
LUXEMBOURG, JUNE 2019

2. Transitions from the EU-LFS – adding annual flows data to the offer
EU-LFS: existing high quality data source with large samples
Purpose of the project: exploit the longitudinal component of the EU-LFS
Ensure coherence between information on stocks and transitions for policy purposes: now, EU-SILC provides transition estimates for the labour market

3. Experience with quarter-on-quarter transitions
Published since 2015 based on TF recommendations (and LAMAS WG approval)
Addition of model-based breakdowns in 2017
High demand for this data; downloaded more often from website than most other quarterly indicators
High and persistent user demand for year-on-year transitions to complement data offer

4. Data requests for year-on-year transitions
DG EMPL: replace EU-SILC based policy indicators (JAF, European pillar of social rights); large interest in breakdowns for analysis
Flash Estimates of Income and Poverty Indicators: potential input
WHO/ILO: several requests for modelling inputs
Several users wait for EU and EA aggregates

5. Work of TF Labour Market Flows meeting on 27/28 February 2019
Goal of TF: build on the method currently used for quarter-on-quarter flows to allow estimation of year-on-year flows
Eurostat prepared an overview of methodological issues, with a focus on
Flows in and out of scope of the longitudinal sample
Size and type of attrition

6. Flows in and out of scope
Individuals moving in or out of the country
Individuals dying
Individuals turning 15, or turning 75
 overall effect adds up to population changes in the age group between initial period and target period
 less than 1.5% population change in 85% of cases

7. Full transition matrix

8. Attrition
Attrition= difference between individuals expected in the longitudinal sample based on wave and rotational pattern and actually observed individuals
At Eurostat, impossible to differentiate between those moving out of scope, those moving nationally, those who cannot be contacted, and those who refuse to answer
 unclear whether attrition bias exists, and if it influences flow estimates (or stock estimates!!)

9. Annual flows – attrition (2016-2017)

10. TF recommendations I
Do NOT account for population changes for first publication
information on the labour market status of movers and those who die is not available
unlikely to have an impact in majority of cases
consistency between stocks and flows will remain intact!
Eurostat will test a simple accounting approach for comparison in the future

11. TF recommendations II
Reweighting of longitudinal sample to match labour market status margins by 10-year age groups and sex (target period)
No further correction, as excessive reweighting as well as imputations would be based on very strong assumptions for which there is no basis
Eurostat will test selected additional variables in the reweighting step for comparison

12. Transitions in Labour Market Status in the EU28 (in % of initial status; population aged 15-74)
2018
employment
unemployment
inactivity
2017
93.6%
1.9%
4.5%
32.9%
42.6%
24.5%
7.6%
3.7%
88.6%

13. Transition from unemployment to employment 2017-2018 vs
Transition from unemployment to employment vs. unemployment rate 2017

14. Next steps
1st step: publish annual flows based on the method recommended by the Task Force
2nd step: test alternative approaches for comparison
Long term:
Discuss the future of longitudinal data from the EU-LFS
Harmonization of rotational patterns and collection modes
Longitudinal weights derived by countries

15. 1st step: Publication and communication strategy
Data publication accompanied by a press release, a Statistics Explained article and a methodological note
Country estimates, if published nationally, can be included should this be deemed important

16. The DSS members are invited to comment on the recommendations of the TF Labour Market Flows, and to express their views on the planned publication strategy, as well as the future next steps.