Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist Ag Market Outlook Feb. 20, 2019 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1
Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Arable land
Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9
Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension
U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 92.0 Yield (bu./acre) 168.4 174.6 176.6 176.4 176.5 Production (mil. bu.) 13,602 15,148 14,609 14,420 14,930 Beg. Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 1,735 Imports 67 57 36 40 50 Total Supply 15,401 16,942 16,939 16,600 16,715 Feed & Residual 5,120 5,470 5,304 5,375 5,575 Ethanol 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,700 Food, Seed, & Other 1,422 1,453 1,451 1,465 1,490 Exports 1,898 2,294 2,438 2,450 2,425 Total Use 13,664 14,649 14,799 14,865 15,190 Ending Stocks 1,525 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.61 3.36 3.60 3.90 Source: USDA-WAOB, w/ adjustment for 2019 11 11
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82.7 83.4 90.2 89.2 82.5 Yield (bu./acre) 48.0 52.0 49.3 51.6 50.0 Production (mil. bu.) 3,926 4,296 4,412 4,544 4,090 Beg. Stocks 191 197 302 438 910 Imports 24 22 20 25 Total Supply 4,140 4,515 4,735 5,002 5,025 Crush 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,090 2,075 Seed & Residual 122 146 113 127 Exports 1,936 2,166 2,129 1,875 Total Use 3,944 4,214 4,297 4,092 4,277 Ending Stocks 748 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 8.95 9.47 9.33 8.60 8.75 Source: USDA-WAOB, w/ adjustment for 2019 12 12
2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices
Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs
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Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/