Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist Ag Market Outlook Oct. 22, 2018 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 0.0 Yield (bu./acre) 168.4 174.6 176.6 180.7 -0.6 Production (mil. bu.) 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,778 -49 Beg. Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 138 Imports 67 57 36 50 Total Supply 15,401 16,942 16,934 16,968 89 Feed & Residual 5,120 5,470 5,302 5,550 -25 Ethanol 5,224 5,432 5,601 5,650 Food, Seed, & Other 1,422 1,453 1,480 Exports 1,898 2,294 2,438 2,475 75 Total Use 13,664 14,649 14,793 15,155 Ending Stocks 1,813 39 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.61 3.36 3.50 0.00 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82.7 83.4 90.1 89.1 -0.4 Yield (bu./acre) 48.0 52.0 49.3 53.1 0.3 Production (mil. bu.) 3,926 4,296 4,411 4,690 -4 Beg. Stocks 191 197 302 438 44 Imports 24 22 25 Total Supply 4,140 4,515 4,734 5,153 40 Crush 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,070 Seed & Residual 122 146 112 138 Exports 1,936 2,166 2,129 2,060 Total Use 3,944 4,214 4,268 Ending Stocks 885 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 8.95 9.47 9.33 8.60 0.00 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 6 6

USDA Objective Corn Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS 7 7

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels per acre Source: USDA-NASS 8 8

USDA Objective Soy Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS 9 9

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

Pork Production Source: USDA-NASS

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Source: LMIC

Beef Production Source: USDA-NASS

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Source: LMIC

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2017 crop Sales for 2018 crop Source: USDA-FAS

Ethanol Production Source: EIA

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

Current Corn Futures 4.02 3.69 Source: CME Group, 10/19/2018

Current Soybean Futures 9.09 8.51 Source: CME Group, 10/19/2018

2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices

Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs Based on USDA prices

Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs Based on USDA prices

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Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/