1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook
Nov. 5, 2018
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. Net Farm Income
Source: USDA

3. Farm Debt
Source: Federal Reserve

4. Ag Economic Summary
Agricultural production and consumption has grown rapidly over the past several years.
But when production exceeds consumption, prices fall.
Crop revenues peaked in , while livestock revenues crested in , leading to record farm incomes.
Since then net farm income has been cut in half.
While the percentage loss in substantial, net farm income remains above levels from the early 2000’s.
Farmers and ranchers have partially compensated for the loss in income by taking on higher debt loads.
Farm and ranch balance sheets are eroding and financial stress is building for some producers, but the financial issues are not as severe as during the 1980’s.
The squeeze is on farm finances and for some producers, the squeeze may be too much.

5. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.0
94.0
90.2
89.1
92.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
168.4
174.6
176.6
180.7
176.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,602
15,148
14,604
14,778
14,930
Beg. Stocks
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,140
1,813
Imports 67 57 36 50
Total Supply
15,401
16,942
16,934
16,968
16,793
Feed & Residual
5,120
5,470
5,302
5,550
5,575
Ethanol
5,224
5,432
5,601
5,650
5,700
Food, Seed, & Other
1,422
1,453
1,480
1,490
Exports
1,898
2,294
2,438
2,475
2,425
Total Use
13,664
14,649
14,793
15,155
15,190
Ending Stocks
1,603
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.61
3.36
3.50
3.90
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
82.7
83.4
90.1
89.1
82.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
48.0
52.0
49.3
53.1
50.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,926
4,296
4,411
4,690
4,090
Beg. Stocks
191
197
302
438
885
Imports 24 22 25
Total Supply
4,140
4,515
4,734
5,153
5,000
Crush
1,886
1,901
2,055
2,070
2,075
Seed & Residual
122
146
112
138
127
Exports
1,936
2,166
2,129
2,060
Total Use
3,944
4,214
4,268
4,277
Ending Stocks
723
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
8.95
9.47
9.33
8.60
8.75
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 7 7

8. U.S. Corn Harvest Data
Source: USDA-NASS 8 8

9. Iowa Corn Harvest Data
Source: USDA-NASS 9 9

10. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 10 10

11. U.S. Soy Harvest Data
Source: USDA-NASS 11 11

12. Iowa Soy Harvest Data
Source: USDA-NASS 12 12

13. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 14 14

17. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 17 17

18. Pork Production
Source: USDA-NASS

19. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Beef Production
Source: USDA-NASS

21. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

22. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

23. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

24. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

25. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

26. Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2017 crop Sales for 2018 crop
Source: USDA-FAS

27. Ethanol Production
Source: EIA

28. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

29. Current Corn Futures
4.05
3.73
Source: CME Group, 11/2/2018

30. Current Soybean Futures
9.23
8.67
Source: CME Group, 11/2/2018

31. 2018/19 Crop Margins
Based on futures prices

32. 2019/20 Crop Margins w/ 2018 Costs
Based on futures prices

33. Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices

34. Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices

35. Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

36. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker:

37. Arable Land