Agricultural Marketing ECON 337: Agricultural Marketing Lee Schulz Associate Professor lschulz@iastate.edu 515-294-3356 Chad Hart Associate Professor chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1
Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Soybean Meal Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Ethanol Exports Source: EIA
Global Shares Source: USDA
Arable land
Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12
Corn Grind for Ethanol
Ethanol Stocks Source: EIA
U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 92.8 Yield (bu./acre) 168.4 174.6 176.6 176.4 176.0 Production (mil. bu.) 13,602 15,148 14,609 14,420 15,018 Beg. Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 1,835 Imports 67 57 36 40 Total Supply 15,401 16,942 16,939 16,600 16,893 Feed & Residual 5,120 5,470 5,304 5,375 5,500 Ethanol 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,550 5,575 Food, Seed, & Other 1,422 1,453 1,451 1,465 Exports 1,898 2,294 2,438 2,375 2,475 Total Use 13,664 14,649 14,799 14,765 15,015 Ending Stocks 1,878 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.61 3.36 3.55 3.65 Source: USDA-WAOB, adjustments for March reports 15 15
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82.7 83.4 90.2 89.2 84.6 Yield (bu./acre) 48.0 52.0 49.3 51.6 49.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,926 4,296 4,412 4,544 4,156 Beg. Stocks 191 197 302 438 900 Imports 24 22 20 Total Supply 4,140 4,515 4,735 5,002 5,076 Crush 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,100 2,105 Seed & Residual 122 146 113 127 130 Exports 1,936 2,166 2,129 1,875 2,025 Total Use 3,944 4,214 4,297 4,102 4,260 Ending Stocks 816 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 8.95 9.47 9.33 8.60 8.80 Source: USDA-WAOB, adjustments for March reports 16 16
Projected Corn Acreage Top: 2019 Acreage Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS 17 17
Projected Soybean Acreage Top: 2019 Acreage Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS 18 18
Change in Principal Crop Acreage Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS 19 19
Weather Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC 20 20
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 21 21
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 22 22
Current Corn Futures 3.83 3.49 Source: CME Group, 3/29/2019
Current Soybean Futures 9.07 8.60 Source: CME Group, 3/29/2019
2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices
2019/20 Crop Margins Based on futures prices
Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs
Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs
Class web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/Classes/econ337/Spring2019/