2013 Crop Market Outlook ISU Extension Farm Management In-service Nashua, Iowa May 20, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 97.3 Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.0 Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 14,140 Beg. Stocks 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 759 Imports 8 28 29 125 25 Total Supply 14,774 14,182 13,516 11,894 14,924 Feed & Residual 5,125 4,795 4,545 4,400 5,325 Ethanol 4,591 5,019 5,011 4,600 4,850 Food, Seed, & Other 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,385 1,445 Exports 1,980 1,834 1,543 750 1,300 Total Use 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,135 12,920 Ending Stocks 2,004 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.90 4.70 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 77.1 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.6 44.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,015 3,390 Beg. Stocks 138 151 215 169 125 Imports 15 14 16 20 Total Supply 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,204 3,530 Crush 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,635 1,695 Seed & Residual 110 130 90 95 120 Exports 1,499 1,501 1,362 1,350 1,450 Total Use 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,080 3,264 Ending Stocks 265 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.30 10.50 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

Corn Planting Stats Source: USDA-NASS

Corn Emergence Stats Source: USDA-NASS

Corn Yields Year with planting progress like this year

Corn Yields Weather analog year, 1947

Soybean Planting Stats Source: USDA-NASS

Soybean Yields Year with planting progress like this year

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Ethanol Stocks

Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

Current Corn Futures 4.94 4.99 Source: CME Group, 5/16/2013

Current Soybean Futures 11.59 11.52 Source: CME Group, 5/16/2013

New Crop Prices

Corn Prices vs. Costs

Soy Prices vs. Costs

3 Month Outlook - Temps

3 Month Outlook - Precip

Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Planting progress or lack thereof Old crop is still short and new crop is not proceeding quickly Corn demand rebounding? Ethanol has recovered slightly 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA 2013/14 Futures (5/16/13) Corn $6.90 $4.70 $4.94 Soybeans $14.30 $10.50 $11.59

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/