Crop Market Outlook 2015 & 2016 Northwest Iowa Research Farm Field Day Sutherland, Iowa July 8, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted (mil. acres) 91.9 97.3 95.4 90.6 88.9 Yield (bu./acre) 147.2 123.1 158.1 171.0 166.8 Production (mil. bu.) 12,360 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,528 Beg. Stocks 1,128 989 821 1,232 1,876 Imports 29 160 36 25 Total Supply 13,517 11,904 14,686 15,472 15,429 Feed & Residual 4,557 4,315 5,034 5,250 5,300 Ethanol 5,000 4,641 5,134 5,175 5,200 Food, Seed, & Other 1,428 1,397 1,369 1,347 1,360 Exports 1,543 730 1,917 1,825 1,900 Total Use 12,528 11,083 13,454 13,597 13,760 Ending Stocks 1,669 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.22 6.89 4.46 3.65 3.50 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.0 77.2 76.8 83.7 85.1 Yield (bu./acre) 41.9 40.0 44.0 47.8 46.0 Production (mil. bu.) 3,094 3,042 3,358 3,969 3,885 Beg. Stocks 215 169 141 92 330 Imports 16 41 72 30 Total Supply 3,325 3,252 3,570 4,091 4,245 Crush 1,703 1,689 1,734 1,815 1,830 Seed & Residual 88 105 97 136 130 Exports 1,365 1,317 1,647 1,810 1,775 Total Use 3,155 3,111 3,478 3,761 3,735 Ending Stocks 510 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 12.50 14.40 13.00 10.05 9.00 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

Very Early Corn Yield Estimate

Very Early Soy Yield Estimate

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Current Corn Futures 4.13 3.79 Source: CME Group, 7/7/2015

Current Soybean Futures 10.08 9.45 Source: CME Group, 7/7/2015

2015/16 Crop Margins

Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Quarterly stocks report showed strong demand Resurvey of acreage for Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas Market is debating whether this year’s rain make grain Projected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops 2014/15 USDA 2015/16 Futures (7/7/15) Corn $3.65 $3.50 $3.79 $4.13 Soybeans $10.05 $9.00 $10.08 $9.45

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/