1. 2015/16 Crop Market Outlook AgriGold New Customer Banquet
Cedar Rapids, Iowa
Aug. 11, 2015
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
91.9
97.3
95.4
90.6
88.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
147.2
123.1
158.1
171.0
166.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
12,360
10,755
13,829
14,216
13,530
Beg. Stocks
1,128
989
821
1,232
1,779
Imports 29
160 36 27 25
Total Supply
13,517
11,904
14,686
15,474
15,334
Feed & Residual
4,557
4,315
5,034
5,300
5,275
Ethanol
5,000
4,641
5,134
5,200
5,225
Food, Seed, & Other
1,428
1,397
1,369
1,346
1,360
Exports
1,543
730
1,917
1,850
1,875
Total Use
12,528
11,083
13,454
13,696
13,735
Ending Stocks
1,599
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
6.22
6.89
4.46
3.70
3.75
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
75.0
77.2
76.8
83.7
85.1
Yield
(bu./acre)
41.9
40.0
44.0
47.8
46.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,094
3,042
3,358
3,969
3,885
Beg. Stocks
215
169
141 92
255
Imports 16 41 72 30
Total Supply
3,325
3,252
3,570
4,091
4,170
Crush
1,703
1,689
1,734
1,830
1,840
Seed & Residual 88
105 97
181
130
Exports
1,365
1,317
1,647
1,825
1,775
Total Use
3,155
3,111
3,478
3,836
3,744
Ending Stocks
425
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
12.50
14.40
13.00
10.05
9.25
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. U.S. Soybean Acreage Top: 2015 acreage Bottom: Change from last year
Units: 1,000 acres
Source: USDA-NASS 4 4

5. Corn Good to Excellent Ratings
Nationwide, 70% of the corn crop is rated Good to Excellent
Last year, 73%
Source: USDA-NASS, Aug. 9, 2015

6. Soy Good to Excellent Ratings
Nationwide, 63% of the soy crop is rated Good to Excellent
Last year 70%
Source: USDA-NASS, Aug. 9, 2015

7. Early Corn Yield Estimate

8. Early Soy Yield Estimate

9. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

12. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

13. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Soybean Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

21. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

22. Corn Grind for Ethanol

23. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

24. Current Corn Futures
3.91
3.80
Source: CME Group, 8/10/2015

25. Current Soybean Futures
9.45
8.99
Source: CME Group, 8/10/2015

26. 2014/15 Crop Margins

27. 2015/16 Crop Margins

28. Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Quarterly stocks report showed strong demand
Resurvey of acreage for Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas
Market is debating whether this year’s rain makes grain
Negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops
2014/15
USDA
2015/16
Futures
(8/10/15)
2016/17
Corn
$3.70
$3.75
$3.80
$3.91
Soybeans
$10.05
$9.25
$9.45
$8.99

29. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: