Reflections on our Climate Predicament James J. McCarthy Professor of Oceanography, Harvard University Irvine 7 June 2011 JJM

WMO 2011 IPCC 1990 – Reducing Uncertainty Rio, ratification UNFCCC in force1994 1995 – extremes?, sea level? Scale of climate impact? 2001 - vulnerability WMO 2011

DECADAL CHANGES IN AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/ July 2010

NOAA BAMS SOTC 2010

World Meteorological Organization 2010, Publ #1055

Jim Hansen, Jerry Meehl Lean and Rind 2009

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios Fossil Fuel Emission (PgCy-1) 5 6 7 8 9 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate projections A1B Models Average A1FI Models Average A1T Models Average A2 Models Average B1 Models Average B2 Models Average Observed Projected Time (y) The abrupt decline in fossil fuel emissions by 1.3% in 2009 is indisputably the result of the global financial crisis (GFC). A detectable lower-than-average growth of 2% in 2008 already signalled the beginning of the impact. The decline in 2009 was smaller than anticipated because: 1) the contraction of the Global World Product (GWP) was only -0.6%, as opposed to the forecasted -1.1%; and 2) the impact of the GFC was largely in developed economies which led more carbon-intense economies to take a larger share of the production of global wealth (with associated higher emissions). The long-term improvement of the carbon intensity of the economy (amount of carbon emissions to produce one dollar of wealth) is -1.7% y-1; the carbon intensity of the economy in 2009 improved only by -0.7% y-1. We estimate an emission growth of at least 3% in 2010 based on the forecast of +4.8% GWP growth rate of the International Monetary Fund, corrected for expected improvements in the carbon intensity of the global economy. Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions CO2 emissions (Pg C y-1) CO2 emissions (Pg CO2 y-1) Growth rate 1990-1999 1 % per year 2000-2009 2.5 % per year Time (y) 2009: Emissions:8.4±0.5 PgC Growth rate: -1.3% 1990 level: +37% 2000-2008 Growth rate: +3.2% 2010 (projected): Growth rate: >3% Fossil fuel CO2 emissions decreased by 1.3% in 2009, with a total of 8.4±0.5 PgC emitted to the atmosphere (30.8 Pg of CO2; 1 Pg = 1 billion tons or 1000 x million tons). These emissions were second highest in human history, just below 2008 emissions, and 37% higher than in 1990 (Kyoto reference year). Coal is now the largest fossil-fuel source of CO2 emissions. About 92% of the growth in coal emissions for the period 2007-2009 resulted from increased coal use in China and India. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2007 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2008 and 2009 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6%. Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger. The abrupt decline in fossil fuel emissions by 1.3% in 2009 is indisputably the result of the global financial crisis (GFC). A detectable lower-than-average growth of 2% in 2008 already signaled the beginning of the impact. The decline in 2009 was smaller than anticipated because: 1) the contraction of the Global World Product (GWP) was only -0.6%, as opposed to the forecasted -1.1%; and 2) the impact of the GFC was largely in developed economies which led more carbon-intense economies to take a larger share of the production of global wealth (with associated higher emissions). The long-term improvement of the carbon intensity of the economy (amount of carbon emissions to produce one dollar of wealth) is -1.7% y-1; the carbon intensity of the economy in 2009 improved only by -0.7% y-1. We estimate an emission growth of at least 3% in 2010 based on the forecast of +4.8% GWP growth rate of the International Monetary Fund, corrected for expected improvements in the carbon intensity of the global economy. Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters 1990 95 2001 05 2009 97 99 03 93 400 800 1200 1600 2000 Carbon Emissions per year (C tons x 1,000,000) China USA Japan Russian Fed. India 07 Time (y) The biggest increase in fossil fuel emissions in recent years took place in developing countries (with close to 6 billion people) while emissions from developed countries (with less than 1 billion people), on average, show rather steady emissions for the last decade. However, emissions of a number of developed countries declined abruptly in 2009 (USA −6.9%, UK −8.6%, Germany −7%, Japan −11.8%, Russia −8.4%), while emerging economies continued to display rapid growth (China +8%, India +6.2%, South Korea +1.4%). The countries with highest absolute values of emissions are China, US, India, Russia, and Japan although the emissions per capita in China and India are still a fraction of the emissions in US, Russia and Japan. Prior to 2009, about one quarter of recent growth in emissions in developing countries resulted from the increase in international trade of goods and services produced in developing countries but consumed in developed countries. From a historical perspective, developing countries with 80% of the world’s population account for about one fifth of the cumulative emissions since 1751; the poorest countries in the world, with 800 million people, have contributed less than 1% of these cumulative emissions. Uncertainty of emissions from CO2 fossil fuel is large in some countries. Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden-CDIAC 2010

Transport of Embodied Emissions CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) Annex B Developed Nations Developing Nations Non-Annex B 1990 2000 2010 5 4 3 2 55% 45% 1990 2000 2010 5 25% of growth Annex B Developed Nations Developing Nations Non-Annex B 4 3 2 The right panel shows what happens if carbon emissions from traded products are assigned to the consumers, not to the producers as shown on the left panel. 25% of the emissions growth in developing countries (2000-2008) is due to the manufacturing of products consumed in developed countries. Local Emissions Local + Imported Product Emissions Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Peters & Hetwich 2009; Peters et al. 2008; Weber et al 2008; Guan et al. 2008; CDIAC 2009

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2009) 1.1±0.7 PgC y-1 + 7.7±0.5 PgC y-1 2.4 PgC y-1 27% Calculated as the residual of all other flux components 4.1±0.1 PgC y-1 47% 26% 2.3±0.4 PgC y-1 Average of 5 models Residue is included in the land sink Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Changes in temperature extremes IPCC

Sea level rise

Recent Global Sea Level Rise Estimates Data: Church and White (2006) Scenarios 2100: 50 – 140 cm (Rahmstorf 2007) 55 – 110 cm (“high end”, Delta Committee 2008) Scenarios 2200: 150 – 350 cm (“high end”, Delta Committee 2008) Scenarios 2300: 250 – 510 cm (German Advisory Council on Global Change, WBGU, 2006) WBGU Delta Comm. This graph shows several recent estimates for global sea level rise, presented here relative to the 1990 level. Please refer to the original publications for the various assumptions underlying these scenarios! The full references are: Church, J.A. and N.J. White, 2006: A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise. Geophysical Research Letters 33(1): p. L01602. Rahmstorf, S., 2008: A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise. Science 315(5810): p. 368-370. Vellinga, P. et al. 2008: Exploring high-end climate change scenarios for flood protection of the Netherlands. International Scientific Assessment Carried out at request of the Delta Committee. See www.deltacommissie.com/en/advies WBGU - Wissenschaftlicher Beirat Globale Umweltveränderungen, 2006: The Future Oceans - Warming Up, Rising High, Turning Sour. Berlin, 110 pp. Available at www.wbgu.de Rahmstorf Data

Projected Sea Level Rise for end of 21st Century Rahmstorf 2010

“On the basis of calculations presented here, we suggest that an improved estimate of the range of sea level rise to 2100 including increased ice dynamics lies between 0.8 and 2.0 meters [31 – 78 inches].” Pfeffer et al. 2008

Summer 2005 hundreds of US cities and towns set all time daily T records

Record-Breaking Heat - Europe 2003 Paris: highest nighttime T ever recorded on 11 and 12 August (25.5ºC) The period between 4 and 12 August was unique in the meteorological history of Paris, with respect to the intensity, duration, and minimum and maximum daily temperatures. Average daytime high was 37ºC. 15% of France’s cities recorded T above 40ºC

2010 Surface Temperature Anomaly in deg C (relative to 1951-1980 average) Dec – Jan – Feb Jun – Jul – Aug Hansen GISS 2010

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios Fossil Fuel Emission (PgCy-1) 5 6 7 8 9 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate projections A1B Models Average A1FI Models Average A1T Models Average A2 Models Average B1 Models Average B2 Models Average Observed Projected Time (y) The abrupt decline in fossil fuel emissions by 1.3% in 2009 is indisputably the result of the global financial crisis (GFC). A detectable lower-than-average growth of 2% in 2008 already signalled the beginning of the impact. The decline in 2009 was smaller than anticipated because: 1) the contraction of the Global World Product (GWP) was only -0.6%, as opposed to the forecasted -1.1%; and 2) the impact of the GFC was largely in developed economies which led more carbon-intense economies to take a larger share of the production of global wealth (with associated higher emissions). The long-term improvement of the carbon intensity of the economy (amount of carbon emissions to produce one dollar of wealth) is -1.7% y-1; the carbon intensity of the economy in 2009 improved only by -0.7% y-1. We estimate an emission growth of at least 3% in 2010 based on the forecast of +4.8% GWP growth rate of the International Monetary Fund, corrected for expected improvements in the carbon intensity of the global economy. Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010

Pew Data, 2008: If you’re a Republican, then the higher your level of education, the less likely you are to accept scientific reality—which is, that global warming is human caused.

Greg Craven What is the worst thing that can happen