1. Budget10 released on 5 December 2011
ppt version 8 December 2011
Carbon
Budget
2010
More information, data sources and data files can be found at

2. GCP - Carbon Budget 2010 Contributors
Thomas A. Boden
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee USA
Gordon Bonan
National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Laurent Bopp Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France
Erik Buitenhuis
School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
Ken Caldeira
Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA
Josep G. Canadell Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia
Philippe Ciais Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR  CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France
Thomas J. Conway NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Steven Davis
Scott C. Doney Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
Pierre Friedlingstein Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Joe L. Hackler
Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA
Christoph Heinze
University of Bergen, Norway
Richard A. Houghton Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA
Corinne Le Quéré Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research,
University of East Anglia, UK
Andrew Lenton
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Tasmania, Australia
Ivan Lima
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
Gregg Marland Research Institute for Environment, Energy and Economics, Appalachian State University, Boone, North Carolina, USA Glen P. Peters Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway Michael R. Raupach Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia
Stephen Sitch School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK Jerry Tijputra 2

3. GCP - Carbon Budget 2010
Peters GP, Marland G, Le Quéré C, Boden T, Canadell JG, Raupach MR (2011) Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the global financial crisis. Nature Climate Change, doi /nclimate1332. Published online 4 December 2011. 3

4. Units 1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1x1015g = 1 Billion metric tons = 1 Gigaton
1 Tg = 1 Teragram = 1x1012g = 1 Million metric tons
1 Kg Carbon (C) = 3.67 Kg Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

5. Fossil Fuel & Cement CO2 Emissions
Growth rate
1% per year
3.1% per year
2010
5.9% yr
2009
-1.3% per year
Uncertainty (6-10%) + -
Fossil fuel CO2 emissions increased by 5.9% in 2010, with a total of 9.1±0.5 PgC emitted to the atmosphere (33.4 Pg of CO2; 1 Pg = 1 billion tons or 1000 x million tons). These emissions were the highest in human history and 49% higher than in 1990 (the Kyoto reference year). Coal burning was responsible for 52% of the fossil fuel emissions growth in 2010 (gas 23% and liquid 18%).
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2008 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2009 and 2010 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is around 6-10%, and growing as the global share of emerging economies and developing countries grows. Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger.  [can106 1]Link to
Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Marland et al. 2009 5

6. Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters
2010 Growth
Rates
2500
10.4%
China
2000
4.1%
1500
Carbon Emissions per year
(C tons x 1,000,000)
USA
1000
9.4%
Russian Fed.
500
5.8%
6.8%
Japan
India
Contributions to global emissions growth in 2010 were largest from China (0.21 Pg above 2009 levels,10.%), USA (0.06 PgC, 4.1%), India (0.05 PgC, 9.4%), Russian Federation (0.025 PgC, 5.8%), and European Union (0.022 PgC, 2.2%), with a continuously growing global share from emerging economies. Per capita emissions of developed countries remain several times larger than those of developing countries.
The countries with highest absolute values of emissions are China (2.2 PgC), US (1.5 PgC), India (0.5 PgC), Russia (0.5 PgC), and Japan (0.3 PgC) although the emissions per capita in China (1.7 tC/person/y) and India (0.5) are still a fraction of the emissions e.g., in US (4.8), Russia (3.3) and Japan (2.5).
1990
2000
2010
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2011; Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011 6

7. Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Profile Examples
2010
180 UK
140
Canada
Australia
Carbon Emissions per year
(C tons x 1,000,000)
100
Spain 60
The Netherlands 20
Denmark
1990
2000
2010
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2011; Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011 7

8. Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Growth in 2010
Table SI 1: The emissions growth globally, for developed and developing countries, and for the 10 countries
with the largest absolute emissions growth in The table shows the 2010 growth and the combined 2009
and 2010 growth rate based on regression (Supplementary Methods). *Country totals do not add to the global
total since a) there are global imbalances in energy trade statistics, b) global totals include emissions from nonfuel
hydrocarbon products (e.g., asphalt) whereas national totals do not, c) changes in fuel stocks are not
reported by many countries and we assume that globally there is no change over time, and d) emissions from
bunker fuel use are included in global estimates but not national totals.
Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC, Supplementary Information

9. Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (Production and Consumption)
Historic CO2 emissions from 1990 to 2010 of developed (Annex B) and developing (non- Annex B) countries with emissions allocated to production/territorial (as in the Kyoto Protocol) and the consumption of goods and services (production plus imports minus exports). The shaded areas are the trade balance (difference) between Annex B/non-Annex B production and consumption6,14. Bunker fuels are not included in this figure.
Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC

10. Impacts of Economic Crises on C Emissions
The abrupt decline in fossil fuel emissions by 1.3% in 2009 was indisputably the result of the global financial crisis (GFC). However, the effect was short lived as the growth rate climbed to 5.9% in 2010, the highest annual growth rate since The long-term improvement of the carbon intensity of the economy (amount of carbon emissions to produce one dollar of wealth) was -1.4% y-1 during the period ; carbon intensity only declined by -0.9% y-1 since 2000, and increased (deterioration of carbon intensity of the economy) by +0.9% y-1 in 2010.
CO2 emissions in developed countries decreased 1.3% in 2008 and 7.6% in 2009, but increased 3.4% in CO2 emissions in developing countries increased 4.4% in 2008, 3.9% in 2009, and 7.6% in Based on the mean improvement in the FFCI from (-0.9% y-1) and a Global Domestic Product growth rate of 4% (as estimated by the International Monetary Fund), we estimate CO2 emissions to growth 3.1±1.5% in 2011 to reach about 9.4 PgC.
Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC

11. Top 20 CO2 FF Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2010
2500
2000
1500
Per Capita Emissions (tons C person y-1)
Total Carbon Emissions (tons x 1,000,000)
1000
500
Global Carbon Project 2011; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Population World Bank 2011

12. CO2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type3 4 2 1
Coal 41%
Oil 34%
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
Gas
Cement
2010
1990
2000
Time (y)
Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011

13. Change in CO2 Emissions from Coal (2008 to 2010)
127% of growth
Developed
World
CO2 emissions (Tg C y-1)
Global Carbon Project 2011; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011

14. Carbon in Trade (2004): Emissions embodied in products
Emissions associated with the consumption of goods and service (production plus imports minus exports) take into account the growing issue of countries consuming goods which are manufactured outside of the country. Developed countries had a large drop in consumption-based emissions of 7.9% in 2009, and increased of 4.9% in In developing countries the reversed occurred marked the first time that developing countries had higher consumption-based emissions than developed countries.
Emissions from the consumption of goods and services produced in emerging economies and developing countries but consumed in developed countries (as defined by Annex B from the Kyoto protocol) increased from 2.5 per cent of the share of developed countries in 1990 to 16 per cent in 2010, and continue to grow.
Millions of tons (Mt) of CO2 in trade in Regional differences between where fossil fuels are burned and where goods and services that are supported by the energy that is generated are ultimately consumed, quantified by CO2 emissions (i.e. the net effect of emissions embodied in goods and services). The arrows depict largest interregional fluxes of emissions (Mt CO2 y-1) from net exporting countries (blues) to net importing countries (reds); the threshold for arrows is 100 Mt CO2 y-1. Fluxes to and from Europe are aggregated to include all member states of the EU-27.
Net exporting countries (blues) to net importing countries (reds)
Davis et al. 2011, PNAS; See also 14

15. CO2 Emissions from FF and LUC (1960-2010)
Current LUC emissions
~10% of total CO2 emissions
Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

16. CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
1.5±0.7 PgCy-1
1.1±0.7 PgCy-1
1990s
Emissions: 1.5±0.7 PgC
Emissions: 1.1±0.7 PgC
Dashed line – previous estimate.
CO2 emissions from deforestation and other land use change were 0.9±0.7 PgC in 2010, leading to total emissions (including fossil fuel and land use change) of 10.0±0.9 PgC. Land use change was responsible for estimated net emissions of 1.1±0.7 PgC per year for the decade of 2000s; this is about a 25% decline from the emissions of 1.5 PgC during the 1990s, though the uncertainty is large..The implementation of new land policies, higher law enforcement to stop illegal deforestation, and new afforestation and regrowth of previously deforested areas could all have contributed to this decline.
CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by using a book-keeping method which used the new and revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment The uncertainty on land use change emissions is the highest of any flux component of the global carbon budget.
Time (y)
Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Data: RA Houghton, GFRA 2010

17. Emissions from Land Use Change (1850-2010)
-400
-200
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Tropical
Temperate
CO2 emissions (TgC y-1)
Time (y)
For the first time, land use change in the temperate world is a net carbon sink.
R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010

18. Emissions from Land Use Change (1850-2010)
-200
200
400
600
800
1000
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Latin America
S & SE Asia
Tropical Africa
CO2 emissions (Tg C y-1)
Time (y)
R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010

19. Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
End of 2010: ppm
Annual Mea Growth Rate (ppm y-1)
1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1
1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y – 2010: 1.9 ppm y-1
Annual Growth Rates
(decadal means)
The annual growth rate of atmospheric CO2 was 2.36±0.09 ppm in 2010 (ppm =  parts per million), one of the largest growth rates in the past decade. The average for the decade was 1.9±0.1 ppm per year, 1.5±0.1 ppm for the decade , and 1.6±0.1 for the decade The 2010 increase brought the atmospheric CO2 concentration to 389.6, 39% above the concentration at the start of the Industrial Revolution (about 278 ppm in 1750).  The present concentration is the highest during at least the last 800,000 years.
The accumulation of atmospheric CO2 in 2010 was 5.0±0.2 Pg C, with a total cumulative of PgC since the beginning of atmospheric high precision measurements in 1959 and 237 PgC since The rates of atmospheric CO2 accumulation are influenced by both the anthropogenic emissions and the net uptake by natural sinks (ocean and land).
Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%. The estimated uncertainty in the global annual mean growth rate is about 0.1 ppm/yr. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory and includes early data from the Scripps  [can106 1]Subscript – all CO2
Data Source: Thomas Conway, 2011, NOAA/ESRL + Scripts Institution

20. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
(PgC y-1)
7.9±0.5
1.0±0.7
2.5±1.0
(Residual)
4.1±0.2
Natural land and ocean CO2 sinks removed 56% of all CO2 emitted from human activities during the , each sink in roughly equal proportion. During this period, the size of the natural sinks has grown almost at the same pace as the growth in emissions, although year-to-year variability is large. There is the possibility, however, that the fraction of all emissions remaining in the atmosphere has a positive trend due to changes in emissions growth rate and decline in the efficiency of natural sinks.
The trend in the ocean sink is estimated by using an ensemble of 5 ocean-process models for For 2009 and 2010, the sink is estimated from anomalies calculated with a sub-set of these models. The models were normalized to the observed mean land and ocean sinks for , estimated from a range of oceanic and atmospheric observations. Models were forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration. The land sink is calculated as the residual of the sum of all sources minus atmosphere+ocean sinks.
How the global carbon budget is put together:
Atmospheric CO2. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%.
Emissions from CO2 fossil fuel. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2007 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2008 and 2009 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6% (currently ±0.5 PgC). Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger.
Emissions from land use change. CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by using a book-keeping method with the revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment Uncertainty on this flux is the highest of all budget components.
Ocean CO2 sink. The global ocean sink is estimated using an ensemble of five process ocean models. Models are forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration.  Current uncertainty is around 0.5 PgC y-1.
Land CO2 sink. The terrestrial sink is estimated as the residual from the sum of all sources minus ocean+atmosphere sink. The sink can also be estimated using terrestrial biogeochemical models as in previous carbon budget updates. Current uncertainty 1 PgC.
More information on data sources, uncertainty, and methods are available at:
2.3±0.5
(5 models)
Global Carbon Project 2011; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature G; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS 20

21. Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2010)
9.1±0.5 PgC y-1
5.0±0.2 PgC y-1
50%
2.6±1.0 PgC y-1
26%
Calculated as the residual
of all other flux components +
0.9±0.7 PgC y-1
24%
2.4±0.5 PgC y-1
Average of 5 models
Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

22. References cited in this ppt
Boden TA, Marland G, Andres RJ (2011) Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. doi /CDIAC/00001_V2011
Canadell JG et al. (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. PNAS 104: 18866–18870,
Davis SJ, Peters GP, Caldeira K (2011). The Supply Chain of CO2 Emissions. PNAS v.108, doi: /pnas
Davis S, Caldeira K (2010) Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions. PNAS 107:  
Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI /ngeo_1022, Online 21 November
Global Forest Resources Assessment (2010) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations;
Global Carbon Project (2011) Carbon budget and trends
International Monetary Fund (2011) World economic outlook. September
Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: /ngeo689.
Marland, G., K. Hamal, et al. (2009) How Uncertain Are Estimates of CO2 Emissions? Journal of Industrial Ecology 13:
Peters GP, Marland G, Le Quéré C, Boden T, Canadell JG, Raupach MR (2011) Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the global financial crisis. Nature Climate Change, doi /nclimate1332. Published online 4 December 2011.
Peters G P, Minx J C, Weber C L, Edenhofer O (2011) Growth in emissions transfer via international trade from 1990 to Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108: 8903–
Conway T, Tans P (2011) Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. NOAA/ESRL
van der Werf et al. (2010) Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009). Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10,