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Some thoughts on estimates of fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions and their verification Gregg Marland Environmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

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Presentation on theme: "Some thoughts on estimates of fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions and their verification Gregg Marland Environmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory."— Presentation transcript:

1 Some thoughts on estimates of fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions and their verification Gregg Marland Environmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory 28 September, 2010

2 Verifying Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Methods to Support International Climate Agreements U.S. National Research Council March, 2010

3 Categories of Recommendations from NRC Strengthening national greenhouse gas inventories Improving independent estimates of fossil- fuel CO 2 emissions Improving independent estimates of fluxes from land-use sources and sinks

4 Recommendation UNFCCC parties should strengthen self-reported national emissions inventories by working toward Extending regular, rigorous reporting and review to developing countries Extending top-tier (most stringent) IPCC methods to the most important greenhouse gas sources in each country This would reduce errors to <10% for CO 2 and, depending on the country, from <10% to 50% for CH 4, from 10% to 100% for N 2 O, and from <10% to 50% for the fluorinated gases Financial and technical assistance will be required to help developing countries collect, analyze, and report emissions regularly

5 Recommendation Annex I (developed) countries should develop and implement standardized methods for preparing and publishing inventories that are gridded at spatial and temporal resolutions appropriate for the particular greenhouse gas and source UNFCCC inventories report annual, national totals, even when more detailed information is collected Gridded inventories would facilitate independent checks using atmospheric data and models

6 atmospheric CO 2 ocean land fossil fuel emissions deforestation 7.7 1.4 4.1 3.0 (5 models) 2000-2008 PgC CO 2 flux (PgC y -1 ) Sink Source Time (y) Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 2.3 (4 models) Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

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9 Annual Emissions ( billion tons of carbon) Developing Countries Non Annex B Developed Countries Annex B

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11 Sources of US anthropogenic CO 2 emissions - 2006 Fossil fuel combustion 1537.5 Tg C Non-energy use of fossil fuels 37.6 Iron and steel manufacture 13.4 Cement production 12.5 Gas flaring/venting/leakage 7.8 Other industrial processes 22.9 Total 1631.7 From US EPA, 2008

12 Fraction of fossil fuel use - 2000 Non-fuel uses = 5.8% Bunker fuels = 3.2%

13 Sources of CO 2 from FF by sector - 2006 USA China Germany Sweden Total (Mt C) 1552 1528 224 13 Utilities (%) 41 49 37 18 Other energy (%) 6 5 9 7 Transport (%) 32 7 19 46 Industry and 11 31 14 23 construction (%) Other (%) 10 8 22 7 (residential) (5) (4) (15) (2) CO 2 /cap (t C/cap) 5.2 1.2 2.7 1.4 CO 2 /GDP (t C/$ PPP) 0.14 0.18 0.10 0.05 (from IEA, 2008)

14 From T.J. Blasing

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18 I can see your error bars using Google Earth

19 Insight into uncertainty of CO 2 emissions estimates 1 – compare estimates by independent methods 2 – compare estimates by different analysts 3 – compare estimates by the same analyst over time

20 Ackerman and Sundquist, 2008

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23 CO 2 emissions in millions of metric tons of carbon COUNTRY199019982002 USACDIAC 1305 IEA 1320 USEPA 1316 CDIAC 1501 IEA 1497 USEPA 1478 CDIAC 1580 IEA 1545 USEPA 1534 CANADACDIAC 112 IEA 117 Canada 117 CDIAC 119 IEA 136 Canada 133 CDIAC 139 IEA 145 Canada 144 MEXICOCDIAC 99 IEA 80 Mexico 81 CDIAC 96 IEA 96 Mexico 96 CDIAC 100 IEA 100 Mexico NA SOCCR Report, 2007

24 24 Input Data: Emissions Inventories

25 25 Input Data: Emissions Inventories

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28 CO 2 emissions without LULUCF estimates. Data from: European Community National Inventory Reports.

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30 Revisions of Global Total without China

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