1. EVSC 1300
Global Warming

2. Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide Record
Page: 8
FIGURE 1.6 (a) The solid blue line shows the average yearly measurements of CO2 in parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, from 1958 to The jagged dark line illustrates how higher readings occur in winter where plants die and release CO2 to the atmosphere, and how lower readings occur in summer when more abundant vegetation absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere.
Pre-industrial background = 280 ppm
Current level = 408 ppm

7. Clouds and Radiation * * * * * * * * * * Ice clouds are net warmers.
Absorption of
infrared is greater
than solar reflection.

8. Clouds and Radiation Water clouds are net coolers. Absorption of
infrared is less
than solar reflection.

9. Greenhouse Gas Trends Since 1979
Montreal Protocol
(NOAA: Earth System Research Laboratory)

10. IPCC ESTIMATES OF RADIATIVE FORCING (RF)

11. Radiative Forcing (Definition)
*change in net radiation arising from some external
factor (e.g., greenhouse gases, aerosols, etc.)
positive  more energy in system  warmer
negative  less energy in system  cooler
*relative to 1750 (pre-industrial baseline)
*global annual average values

12. Global Annual Temperature Anomalies (°C)?
(Annual values are departures from the 20th century mean temperature)

13. Global Carbon Emission Estimates
Source: CDIAC

14. Global Annual Temperature Anomalies

15. GLOBAL TEMPERATURES: 1970–2013
(Trenberth et al., 2014)

16. GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION

17. Change in Solar “Constant” over Time

18. Global Solar Radiation
Global Temperature

19. Reconstructed Solar Output vs. Global Temperatures
–0.6
–0.4
–0.2
0.0
0.2
1364
1366
1368
1370
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
Temperature Departure (°C)
Solar Output (W/sq. m)
Reconstructed Solar Output
Reconstructed Temperature History
Thermometer Temperature History
Reconstructed Solar Output vs. Global Temperatures

20. GLOBAL SATELLITE TEMPERATURES
1979–2017
El Niño
Volcano

21. COMPARISON OF SURFACE AND SATELLITE TEMPERATURES
1979–2016
Surface vs. Satellite Temperatures
(Climate4you.com)

22. DJF Temperature Change from 1880-1889 mean by 2040-2049 predicted by the Max-Plank Institute model

23. Observed December-February Temperature Change
( minus )

24. Observed June-August Temperature Change
( minus )

25. Temperature Change by Latitude (Note different y-axis scales) S.Pole
N.Pole
(Note different y-axis scales)
S.Pole
N.Pole

26. Global Precipitation over Continents
Wetter
Drier

27. Sea-Level Components
(1961–2003)
(1993–2003)
(IPCC FAR)

28. Quick Summary—Global Warming:
Change in one component of radiation balance can impact all other components
The 50% increase in atmospheric CO2 levels since pre-
industrial times is caused by fossil fuel use
Surface temperatures have increased 0.5°C–1.0°C over the past century in an irregular pattern of warming/cooling
Warming is strongest in the high latitudes and in winter, although warming is evident across most of the planet
Natural temperature fluctuations are large and related to factors like El Niño (warming) and volcanoes (cooling)