1. Budget09 released on 21 November 2010
ppt version 20 January 2011
Carbon
Budget
2009
More information, data sources and data files can be found at

2. GCP-Carbon Budget2009 Contributors
Karen Assmann
University of Bergen, Norway
Thomas A. Boden
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee USA
Gordon Bonan
National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Laurent Bopp Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France
Erik Buitenhuis
School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
Ken Caldeira
Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA
Josep G. Canadell Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia
Philippe Ciais Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR  CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France
Thomas J. Conway NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Steve Davis
Scott C. Doney Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
Richard A. Feely Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA
Pru Foster QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK
Pierre Friedlingstein Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Joe L. Hackler
Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA
Christoph Heinze
Richard A. Houghton Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA
Chris Huntingford Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, UK
Peter E. Levy
    Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UK
Sam Levis
National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Co, USA
Mark R. Lomas
Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, U
Joseph Majkut AOS Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA Nicolas Metzl          LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
Corinne Le Quéré School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
Andrew Lenton
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Tasmania, Australia
Ivan Lima
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
Gregg Marland Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA Glen P. Peters Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway Michael R. Raupach Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia
Stephen Sitch School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK James T. Randerson
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA
Guido R. van der Werf
Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Nicolas Viovy Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France F. Ian Woodward Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
Sönke Zaehle
Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Ning Zeng
University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

3. GCP-Carbon Budget2009 http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget
Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI /ngeo_1022, Online 21 November

4. Units 1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1x1015g = 1 Billion metric tons = 1 Gigaton
1 Tg = 1 Teragram = 1x1012g = 1 Million metric tons
1 Kg Carbon (C) = 3.67 Kg Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

5. Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
CO2 emissions (Pg C y-1)
CO2 emissions (Pg CO2 y-1)
Growth rate
1 % per year
2.5 % per year
Time (y)
2009:
Emissions:8.4±0.5 PgC
Growth rate: -1.3%
1990 level: +37%
Growth rate: +3.2%
2010 (projected):
Growth rate: >3%
Fossil fuel CO2 emissions decreased by 1.3% in 2009, with a total of 8.4±0.5 PgC emitted to the atmosphere (30.8 Pg of CO2; 1 Pg = 1 billion tons or 1000 x million tons). These emissions were second highest in human history, just below 2008 emissions, and 37% higher than in 1990 (Kyoto reference year). Coal is now the largest fossil-fuel source of CO2 emissions. About 92% of the growth in coal emissions for the period resulted from increased coal use in China and India.
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2007 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2008 and 2009 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6%. Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger.
The abrupt decline in fossil fuel emissions by 1.3% in 2009 is indisputably the result of the global financial crisis (GFC). A detectable lower-than-average growth of 2% in 2008 already signaled the beginning of the impact. The decline in 2009 was smaller than anticipated because: 1) the contraction of the Global World Product (GWP) was only -0.6%, as opposed to the forecasted -1.1%; and 2) the impact of the GFC was largely in developed economies which led more carbon-intense economies to take a larger share of the production of global wealth (with associated higher emissions). The long-term improvement of the carbon intensity of the economy (amount of carbon emissions to produce one dollar of wealth) is -1.7% y-1; the carbon intensity of the economy in 2009 improved only by -0.7% y-1.
We estimate an emission growth of at least 3% in 2010 based on the forecast of +4.8% GWP growth rate of the International Monetary Fund, corrected for expected improvements in the carbon intensity of the global economy.
Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010

6. Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters
1990 95
2001 05
2009 97 99 03 93
400
800
1200
1600
2000
Carbon Emissions per year
(C tons x 1,000,000)
China
USA
Japan
Russian Fed.
India 07
Time (y)
The biggest increase in fossil fuel emissions in recent years took place in developing countries (with close to 6 billion people) while emissions from developed countries (with less than 1 billion people), on average, show rather steady emissions for the last decade. However, emissions of a number of developed countries declined abruptly in 2009 (USA −6.9%, UK −8.6%, Germany −7%, Japan −11.8%, Russia −8.4%), while emerging economies continued to display rapid growth (China +8%, India +6.2%, South Korea +1.4%).
The countries with highest absolute values of emissions are China, US, India, Russia, and Japan although the emissions per capita in China and India are still a fraction of the emissions in US, Russia and Japan. Prior to 2009, about one quarter of recent growth in emissions in developing countries resulted from the increase in international trade of goods and services produced in developing countries but consumed in developed countries. From a historical perspective, developing countries with 80% of the world’s population account for about one fifth of the cumulative emissions since 1751; the poorest countries in the world, with 800 million people, have contributed less than 1% of these cumulative emissions. Uncertainty of emissions from CO2 fossil fuel is large in some countries.
Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden-CDIAC 2010

7. Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Profile Examples
1990 95 01 05
2009 97 99 03 93 40 80
120
160 UK
Denmark
Australia
Spain
Canada
Carbon Emissions per year
(C tons x 1,000,000) 07
The Netherlands
Time (y)
The biggest increase in fossil fuel emissions in recent years took place in developing countries (with close to 6 billion people) while emissions from developed countries (with less than 1 billion people), on average, show rather steady emissions for the last decade. However, emissions of a number of developed countries declined abruptly in 2009 (USA −6.9%, UK −8.6%, Germany −7%, Japan −11.8%, Russia −8.4%), while emerging economies continued to display rapid growth (China +8%, India +6.2%, South Korea +1.4%).
The countries with highest absolute values of emissions are China, US, India, Russia, and Japan although the emissions per capita in China and India are still a fraction of the emissions in US, Russia and Japan. Prior to 2009, about one quarter of recent growth in emissions in developing countries resulted from the increase in international trade of goods and services produced in developing countries but consumed in developed countries. From a historical perspective, developing countries with 80% of the world’s population account for about one fifth of the cumulative emissions since 1751; the poorest countries in the world, with 800 million people, have contributed less than 1% of these cumulative emissions. Uncertainty of emissions from CO2 fossil fuel is large in some countries.
Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden- CDIAC 2010

8. Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
Time (y)
Annex B (Kyoto Protocol) Developed Nation
Developing Nations Non-Annex B
1990
2000
2010 5 4 3 2
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
57%
43%
The biggest increase in emissions has taken place in developing countries (with close to 6 billion people) while developed countries (with less than 1 billion people), on average, show rather steady emissions for the last decade (and decline over the last two years when the Global Financial Crisis has had an impact). About one quarter of the recent growth in emissions in developing countries resulted from the increase in international trade of goods and services produced in developing countries but consumed in developed countries.
From a historical perspective, developing countries with 80% of the world’s population still account for about 20% of the cumulative emissions since 1751; the poorest countries in the world, with 800 million people, have contributed less than 1% of these cumulative emissions. Uncertainty of emissions from CO2 fossil fuel is large in some countries and about ±0.5 PgC globally.
Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 20010

9. Top 20 CO2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009
2500 6 5
2000 4
1500
Per Capita Emissions (tons C person y-1)
Total Carbon Emissions (tons x 1,000,000) 3
1000 2
500 1
CHINA
USA
INDIA
IRAN
RUSSIA
JAPAN
CANADA
MEXICO
ITALY
BRAZIL
POLAND
SPAIN
GERMANY
INDONESIA
AUSTRALIA
SOUTH KOREA
SAUDI ARABIA
SOUTH AFRICA
UNITED KINGDOM
FRANCE (inl. Monaco)
Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010

10. CO2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
Oil
Coal
Gas
Cement 4 3 2 1
1990
2000
2010
40%
36%
Time (y)
Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010

11. Change in CO2 Emissions from Coal (2007 to 2009)
92% of growth
-50 50
100
150
200
250
300
China US
India
World
CO2 emissions (Tg C y-1)
350
Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010

12. Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
Fossil Fuel Emission (PgCy-1) 5 6 7 8 9 10
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate projections
A1B Models Average
A1FI Models Average
A1T Models Average
A2 Models Average
B1 Models Average
B2 Models Average
Observed
Projected
Time (y)
The abrupt decline in fossil fuel emissions by 1.3% in 2009 is indisputably the result of the global financial crisis (GFC). A detectable lower-than-average growth of 2% in 2008 already signalled the beginning of the impact. The decline in 2009 was smaller than anticipated because: 1) the contraction of the Global World Product (GWP) was only -0.6%, as opposed to the forecasted -1.1%; and 2) the impact of the GFC was largely in developed economies which led more carbon-intense economies to take a larger share of the production of global wealth (with associated higher emissions). The long-term improvement of the carbon intensity of the economy (amount of carbon emissions to produce one dollar of wealth) is -1.7% y-1; the carbon intensity of the economy in 2009 improved only by -0.7% y-1.
We estimate an emission growth of at least 3% in 2010 based on the forecast of +4.8% GWP growth rate of the International Monetary Fund, corrected for expected improvements in the carbon intensity of the global economy.
Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010

13. Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO2 y-1)
From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red).
Year 2004
Increasingly, more developed countries are net importers of carbon embedded in products and services provided by developing countries. In other words, developed countries are partially outsourcing their emissions to developing countries.
In 2004, 23% of global CO2 emissions, or 6.2 gigatonnes CO2, were traded internationally, primarily as exports from China and other emerging markets to consumers in developed countries. In some wealthy countries, including Switzerland, Sweden, Austria, the United Kingdom, and France, >30% of consumption-based emissions were imported. In contrast, 22.5% of the emissions produced in China in 2004 were exported, on net, to consumers elsewhere. Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions demonstrates the potential for international carbon leakage.
Davis & Caldeira 2010, PNAS; See also Peters & Hertwich 2008, Environ, Sci & Tech.

14. CO2 Emissions from FF and LUC (1960-2009)
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
Fossil fuel
Land use change 10 8 6 4 2
1960
2010
1970
1990
2000
1980
Time (y)
LUC emissions now
~10% of total CO2 emissions
Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

15. CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)
CO2 emissions (PgCO2 y-1)
1.5±0.7 PgCy-1
1.1±0.7 PgCy-1
1990s
Emissions: 1.5±0.7 PgC
Emissions: 1.3±0.7 PgC :
Emissions: 0.9±0.7 PgC
Land use change was responsible for estimated net emissions of 1.1±0.7 PgC per year for the decade of 2000s; this is about a 25% decline from the emissions of 1.5 PgC during the 1990s. For the decade of 2000s, an apparent trend in reduction of land use change emissions is observed, from 1.3 PgC during to 0.9 PgC for The implementation of new land policies, higher law enforcement to stop illegal deforestation, and new afforestation and regrowth of previously deforested areas have all contributed to this decline.
Emissions for the period were revised from previous assessments (dashed line) and lowered from 1.5 PgC y-1 to 1.3 PgC per year. This is largely the result of the availability of new datasets, particularly on forest regrowth in tropical regions.
CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by using a book-keeping method which used the new and revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment The uncertainty on land use change emissions is the highest of any flux component of the global carbon budget.
Time (y)
Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Data: RA Houghton, GFRA 2010

16. Emissions from Land Use Change (1850-2009)
-400
-200
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Tropical
Temperate
CO2 emissions (TgC y-1)
Time (y)
For the first time, land use change in the temperate world is a net carbon sink.
R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010

17. Emissions from Land Use Change (1850-2009)
200
400
600
800
1000
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Latin America
S & SE Asia
Tropical Africa
CO2 emissions (Tg C y-1)
Time (y)
R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010

18. Fire Emissions from Deforestation Zones
deforestation zones (Tg C y-1)
Fire Emissions from
Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) version 3.1
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1997 99 01
2003 05 07
2009
America
Africa
Asia
Pan-tropics
Time (y)
van der Werf et al. 2010, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions

19. Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
GLOBAL MONTHLY MEAN CO2
Parts Per Million (ppm)
390
388
386
384
382
380
378
December 2009: ppm
September 2010 (preliminary): ppm
39% above pre-industrial
Annual Mea Growth Rate (ppm y-1)
November 2010
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1
1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y : 1.9 ppm y-1
The annual growth rate of atmospheric CO2 was 1.6 ppm in 2009, below the average for the period of 1.9 ppm per year (ppm = parts per million). The mean growth rate for the previous 20 years was about 1.5 ppm per year. This increase brought the atmospheric CO2 concentration to 387 ppm by the end of 2009, 39% above the concentration at the start of the industrial revolution (about 280 ppm in 1750). The present concentration is the highest during at least the last 2 million years.
The increase in atmospheric CO2 of 3.4±0.1 Pg C yr−1 in 2009 was among the lowest since This cannot be explained by the decrease in CO2 emissions alone but is mainly caused by an increase in the land and ocean CO2 sinks in response to the tail of the La Niña event that perturbed the global climate system from mid 2007 until early 2009.
Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%. The estimated uncertainty in the global annual mean growth rate is 0.07 ppm/yr. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory.
Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, 2010, NOAA/ESRL

20. Key Diagnostic of the Carbon Cycle
Evolution of the fraction of total emissions that remain in the atmosphere
Total CO2 emissions
Atmosphere
CO2 Partitioning (PgC y-1)
1960
2010
1970
1990
2000
1980 10 8 6 4 2
Time (y)
Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: NOAA 2010, CDIAC 2010

21. Airborne Fraction Airborne Fraction
Fraction of total CO2 emissions that remains in the atmosphere
Airborne Fraction
Trend: % y-1 (p=~0.9)
45%
1960
2010
1970
1990
2000
1980
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
40%
Time (y)
Natural land and ocean CO2 sinks removed 57% of all CO2 emitted from human activities during the , each sink in roughly equal proportion. During this period, the size of the natural sinks has grown almost at the same pace as the growth in emissions, although year-to-year variability is large. There is the possibility, however, that the efficiency of the natural sinks is declining, an issue currently under intense debate in the scientific community. In 2009, the CO2 sinks increased slightly in repsonse to teh end of La Nina event that perturbed the global climate system from mid 2007 until early 2009.
The trend in the ocean sink is estimated by using an ensemble of 5 ocean-process models. The models were normalized to the observed mean land and ocean sinks for , estimated from a range of oceanic and atmospheric observations. Models were forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration. The land sink is calculated as the residual of the sum of all sources minus atmosphere+ocean sinks.
Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Raupach et al. 2008, Biogeosciences; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

22. Modelled Natural CO2 Sinks
Land sink (PgCy-1) models
1960
2010
1970
1990
2000
1980 2 -2 -4 -6
Ocean sink (PgCy-1) models
Time (y)
1960
2010
1970
1990
2000
1980 2 -2 -4 -6
Natural land and ocean CO2 sinks removed 57% of all CO2 emitted from human activities during the , each sink in roughly equal proportion. During this period, the size of the natural sinks has grown almost at the same pace as the growth in emissions, although year-to-year variability is large. There is the possibility, however, that the efficiency of the natural sinks is declining, an issue currently under intense debate in the scientific community. In 2009, the CO2 sinks increased slightly in repsonse to teh end of La Nina event that perturbed the global climate system from mid 2007 until early 2009.
The trend in the ocean sink is estimated by using an ensemble of 5 ocean-process models. The models were normalized to the observed mean land and ocean sinks for , estimated from a range of oceanic and atmospheric observations. Models were forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration. The land sink is calculated as the residual of the sum of all sources minus atmosphere+ocean sinks.
Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

23. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
Sink
Source
Time (y) 5 10
1850
1900
1950
2000
1.1±0.7
deforestation
CO2 flux (PgC y-1)
(PgC)
How the global carbon budget is put together:
Atmospheric CO2. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%.
Emissions from CO2 fossil fuel. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2007 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2008 and 2009 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6% (currently ±0.5 PgC). Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger.
Emissions from land use change. CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by using a book-keeping method with the revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment Uncertainty on this flux is the highest of all budget components.
Ocean CO2 sink. The global ocean sink is estimated using an ensemble of five process ocean models. Models are forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration.  Current uncertainty is around 0.4 PgC y-1.
Land CO2 sink. The terrestrial sink is estimated as the residual from the sum of all sources minus ocean+atmosphere sink. The sink can also be estimated using terrestrial biogeochemical models as in previous carbon budget updates.
More information on data sources, uncertainty, and methods are available at:
Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

24. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget5 10
1850
1900
1950
2000
7.7±0.5
deforestation
fossil fuel emissions
Sink
Source
Time (y)
CO2 flux (PgC y-1)
1.1±0.7
(PgC)
How the global carbon budget is put together:
Atmospheric CO2. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%.
Emissions from CO2 fossil fuel. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2007 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2008 and 2009 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6% (currently ±0.5 PgC). Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger.
Emissions from land use change. CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by using a book-keeping method with the revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment Uncertainty on this flux is the highest of all budget components.
Ocean CO2 sink. The global ocean sink is estimated using an ensemble of five process ocean models. Models are forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration.  Current uncertainty is around 0.4 PgC y-1.
Land CO2 sink. The terrestrial sink is estimated as the residual from the sum of all sources minus ocean+atmosphere sink. The sink can also be estimated using terrestrial biogeochemical models as in previous carbon budget updates.
More information on data sources, uncertainty, and methods are available at:
Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

25. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget5 10
1850
1900
1950
2000
deforestation
fossil fuel emissions
Sink
Source
CO2 flux (PgC y-1)
7.7±0.5
1.1±0.7
(PgC)
How the global carbon budget is put together:
Atmospheric CO2. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%.
Emissions from CO2 fossil fuel. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2007 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2008 and 2009 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6% (currently ±0.5 PgC). Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger.
Emissions from land use change. CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by using a book-keeping method with the revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment Uncertainty on this flux is the highest of all budget components.
Ocean CO2 sink. The global ocean sink is estimated using an ensemble of five process ocean models. Models are forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration.  Current uncertainty is around 0.4 PgC y-1.
Land CO2 sink. The terrestrial sink is estimated as the residual from the sum of all sources minus ocean+atmosphere sink. The sink can also be estimated using terrestrial biogeochemical models as in previous carbon budget updates.
More information on data sources, uncertainty, and methods are available at:
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

26. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget5 10
1850
1900
1950
2000
4.1±0.1
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
atmospheric CO2
Sink
Source
Time (y)
CO2 flux (PgC y-1)
7.7±0.5
1.1±0.7
(PgC)
How the global carbon budget is put together:
Atmospheric CO2. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%.
Emissions from CO2 fossil fuel. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2007 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2008 and 2009 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6% (currently ±0.5 PgC). Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger.
Emissions from land use change. CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by using a book-keeping method with the revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment Uncertainty on this flux is the highest of all budget components.
Ocean CO2 sink. The global ocean sink is estimated using an ensemble of five process ocean models. Models are forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration.  Current uncertainty is around 0.4 PgC y-1.
Land CO2 sink. The terrestrial sink is estimated as the residual from the sum of all sources minus ocean+atmosphere sink. The sink can also be estimated using terrestrial biogeochemical models as in previous carbon budget updates.
More information on data sources, uncertainty, and methods are available at:
Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

27. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget5 10
1850
1900
1950
2000
atmospheric CO2
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
ocean
2.3±0.4
Sink
Source
Time (y)
CO2 flux (PgC y-1)
(5 models)
4.1±0.1
7.7±0.5
1.1±0.7
(PgC)
How the global carbon budget is put together:
Atmospheric CO2. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%.
Emissions from CO2 fossil fuel. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2007 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2008 and 2009 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6% (currently ±0.5 PgC). Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger.
Emissions from land use change. CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by using a book-keeping method with the revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment Uncertainty on this flux is the highest of all budget components.
Ocean CO2 sink. The global ocean sink is estimated using an ensemble of five process ocean models. Models are forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration.  Current uncertainty is around 0.4 PgC y-1.
Land CO2 sink. The terrestrial sink is estimated as the residual from the sum of all sources minus ocean+atmosphere sink. The sink can also be estimated using terrestrial biogeochemical models as in previous carbon budget updates.
More information on data sources, uncertainty, and methods are available at:
Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

28. Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget5 10
1850
1900
1950
2000
(PgC)
atmospheric CO2
ocean
land
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
(Residual)
Sink
Source
Time (y)
CO2 flux (PgC y-1)
2.3±0.4
(5 models)
4.1±0.1
7.7±0.5
1.1±0.7
2.4
How the global carbon budget is put together:
Atmospheric CO2. The data is provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. Accumulation of atmospheric CO2 is the most accurately measured quantity in the global carbon budget with an uncertainty of about 4%.
Emissions from CO2 fossil fuel. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and other industrial processes are calculated by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory. For the period 1958 to 2007 the calculations were based on United Nations Energy Statistics and cement data from the US Geological Survey, and for the years 2008 and 2009 the calculations were based on BP energy data. Uncertainty of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimate is about ±6% (currently ±0.5 PgC). Uncertainty of emissions from individual countries can be several-fold bigger.
Emissions from land use change. CO2 emissions from land use change are calculated by using a book-keeping method with the revised data on land use change from the Food and agriculture Organization of the United Nationals Global Forest Resource Assessment Uncertainty on this flux is the highest of all budget components.
Ocean CO2 sink. The global ocean sink is estimated using an ensemble of five process ocean models. Models are forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration.  Current uncertainty is around 0.4 PgC y-1.
Land CO2 sink. The terrestrial sink is estimated as the residual from the sum of all sources minus ocean+atmosphere sink. The sink can also be estimated using terrestrial biogeochemical models as in previous carbon budget updates.
More information on data sources, uncertainty, and methods are available at:
Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

29. Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2009)
1.1±0.7 PgC y-1 +
7.7±0.5 PgC y-1
2.4 PgC y-1
27%
Calculated as the residual of
all other flux components
4.1±0.1 PgC y-1
47%
26%
2.3±0.4 PgC y-1
Average of 5 models
Residue is included in the land sink
Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

30. Anthropogenic Global Carbon Dioxide Budget
Global Carbon Project 2010

31. References cited in this ppt
Canadell JG et al. (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. PNAS 104: 18866–18870,
Carbon Dioxide Information Analyses Center (CDIAC).
Davis S, Caldeira K (2010) Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions. PNAS 107:
International Monetary Fund (2010) World economic outlook. October 2010.
Global Forest Resources Assessment (2010) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations;
Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI /ngeo_1022, Online 21 November
Global Carbon Project (2010) Carbon budget and trends
Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: /ngeo689.
Peters GP, Hertwich E G (2008) CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy. Environmental Science and Technology 42:
Raupach MR et al. (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 14:
Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Le Quéré C (2008) Drivers of interannual to interdecadal variability in atmospheric in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and airborne fraction. Biogeosciences 5: 1601–
Tans P, Conway T (2010) Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. NOAA/ESRL
van der Werf et al. (2010) Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009). Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10,