Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook

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Presentation transcript:

Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Presentation to: Virginia’s Economic Future Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University September 14, 2016 GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Job Change Washington MSA, 2002-2016 Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (000s) Source: bls.gov, see industry codes in excel file “Washington-MSA (Jobs by Sector)” Updated monthly, usually the 3rd Friday at 10am Look for revisions of prior two months Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Federal Government Washington MSA Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (000s) Source: bls.gov, see industry codes in excel file “Washington-MSA (Jobs by Sector)” Updated monthly, usually the 3rd Friday at 10am Look for revisions of prior two months Jul-16 Total: 371.4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Federal Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, 1980-2015 $ Billions 82.5 TOTAL = $1,235.9 Billion 79.9 76.3 69.1 71.1 | < 80-90 = $96.5B > | < 91-00 = $207.9B >| < 01–10 = $563.5B | 2015 Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jul-16 Total: 748.3 (000s) Source: bls.gov, see industry codes in excel file “Washington-MSA (Jobs by Sector)” Updated monthly, usually the 3rd Friday at 10am Look for revisions of prior two months Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Annual Month Over the Year Source: bls.gov, codes: SMU11479006000000001, SMU11479006054000001, SMU11479006056000001 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector Jul 2015 – Jul 2016 Washington MSA Total = 94,800 (000s) Source: bls.gov, see industry codes in excel file “Washington-MSA (Jobs by Sector)” Updated monthly, usually the 3rd Friday at 10am Look for revisions of prior two months Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Jul 2015 – Jul 2016 Washington +3.0% Source: see excel file, “Top 15 Metro Employment” Updated monthly, usually the 3rd Friday at 10am Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Aug 2008-Feb 2010 Feb 2010-Jul 2016 (000s) Total -181 Total 363 Source: bls.gov, for series codes see excel file “Payroll Job Changes” Updated monthly, usually the 3rd Friday at 10am Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, 2002-2016 (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: bls.gov, see industry codes in excel file “Washington-MSA (Jobs by Sector)” Updated monthly, usually the 3rd Friday at 10am Look for revisions of prior two months Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector Jul 2015 – Jul 2016 Northern Virginia Total 26,300 Source: bls.gov, see industry codes in excel file “Washington-MSA (Jobs by Sector)” Updated monthly, usually the 3rd Friday at 10am Look for revisions of prior two months Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, 2009-2016 6.2 – DC 4.9 – U.S. 4.1 – SMD 4.0 – MSA 3.3 – NVA Source: bls.gov, use series codes in excel file “Regional Employed Residents and Unemployment” Released 4th week of the month often a Wednesday Look for revision of prior 3 months Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted) GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average Source: data provided by Ryan Price Updated Monthly Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 2007 – 2015 – 2020 (Annual % Change) % U.S. % Washington Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: April 2016 GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Where are we? We are growing: Advantages Headwinds Some diversification Some catch-up Recent job growth across all wage levels Advantages Government Center International Institutions Connectivity to the World Concentration of Leaders High Quality-of-Life Diverse Population Higher Educational Services Educated Work Force High Labor Force Participation Advanced Occupational Specializations Headwinds Sequester? Further market shifts needed Cost of living Cost of doing business Mobility Access to capital Lack of regional branding, economic development cooperation Globally competitive?

Thank You cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 16