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Report on the Competitiveness of Puerto Rico’s Economy James Orr Federal Reserve Bank of New York May 10, 2013 The views expressed here are those of the.

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Presentation on theme: "Report on the Competitiveness of Puerto Rico’s Economy James Orr Federal Reserve Bank of New York May 10, 2013 The views expressed here are those of the."— Presentation transcript:

1 Report on the Competitiveness of Puerto Rico’s Economy James Orr Federal Reserve Bank of New York May 10, 2013 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

2 Regional Economic Activity: Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) Index (Dec 2007=100) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico Notes: The Puerto Rico composite index is based on a different methodology than the indexes produced by the FRBNY. New York City Puerto Rico Oct09 Apr08 Nov05

3 Real GNP Growth: Puerto Rico and the United States Percent Puerto Rico United States Sources: Puerto Rico Planning Board; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009

4 Real GNP Per Capita: Puerto Rico Index (1987=100) Source: Puerto Rico Planning Board.

5 Unemployment Rate: Puerto Rico and the United States Percent Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Notes: Data are seasonally adjusted. Shading indicates periods designated recessions by the National Bureau of Economic Research (mainland). Puerto Rico unemployment data unavailable prior to 1976. Puerto Rico United States

6 Challenges facing Puerto Rico

7 Improving Labor Market Opportunities

8 Challenges facing Puerto Rico Improving Labor Market Opportunities Developing Human Capital

9 Challenges facing Puerto Rico Improving Labor Market Opportunities Developing Human Capital Reducing the Costs of Doing Business

10 Challenges facing Puerto Rico Improving Labor Market Opportunities Developing Human Capital Reducing the Costs of Doing Business Mobilizing Finance for Business Development and Growth

11 Challenges facing Puerto Rico Improving Labor Market Opportunities Developing Human Capital Reducing the Costs of Doing Business Mobilizing Finance for Business Development and Growth Lowering Dependence on a Shrinking Industry

12 2010 United StatesPuerto RicoDifference Total 10.719.2-8.4 By age cohort 16-2420.439.0-18.7 25-3410.920.3-9.4 35-448.917.1-8.2 45-548.514.9-6.4 55-648.210.8-2.6 By education level (ages 25 to 64) Less than high school graduate16.530.8-14.3 High school graduate11.821.9-10.2 Some college8.814.9-6.1 Bachelor's degree or more4.98.0-3.0 Figure 6. Unemployment Rates: Puerto Rico and the United States Sources: 2010 Census (American Community Survey); Puerto Rico Community Survey. Percent

13 2010 United StatesPuerto RicoDifference Total 65.447.517.9 By age cohort 16-2458.235.522.7 25-3483.974.39.5 35-4484.075.09.0 45-5481.762.719.0 55-6464.835.129.7 By education level (ages 25 to 64) Less than high school graduate62.939.123.8 High school graduate75.856.519.3 Some college81.670.211.4 Bachelor's degree or more86.381.25.2 Figure 7. Labor Force Participation Rates: Puerto Rico and the United States Sources: 2010 Census (American Community Survey); Puerto Rico Community Survey. Percent

14 2010 United StatesPuerto RicoDifference Average years of education (ages 25 to 64) 13.512.51.0 Percentage distribution, by education level Less than high school graduate10.921.0-10.1 High school graduate35.030.44.6 Some college24.223.30.9 Bachelor's degree or more29.925.34.6 Average years of education, by education level Less than high school graduate7.76.90.8 High school graduate12.112.00.1 Some college13.7 0.0 Bachelor's degree or more16.816.70.2 Figure 8. Educational Attainment: Puerto Rico and the United States Sources: 2010 Census (American Community Survey); Puerto Rico Community Survey.

15 Figure 9. Human Capital and Income Per Capita: Puerto Rico and the Fifty States Sources: 2010 Census (American Community Survey); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Puerto Rico Planning Board. 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Average years of education of adult working age population Income (dollars) Correlation: 0.71 Puerto Rico

16 Figure 10. Types of Financial Institutions: Puerto Rico Percentage of System Assets, Except As Noted Source: Office of the Commissioner of Financial Institutions.

17 Figure 13. Commercial Bank Nonperforming Loans: Puerto Rico Percent Source: Office of the Commissioner of Financial Institutions. Total Individuals Real estate Commercial, industrial, and agricultural As a Percentage of Total Loans, by Segment

18 Figure 15. Employment within the Manufacturing Sector: Puerto Rico T housands Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chemical Apparel Computer and electronic production Fabricated metals Plastics and rubber Note: Data are annual.

19 Exports73,739.2 Merchandise66,077.6 Transportation 475.9 Visitors' expenditures 3,472.8 Miscellaneous services 2,554.3 Income on investments 1,158.6 Imports87,629.8 Merchandise48,285.6 Transportation 2,195.6 Travel expenditures 1,106.1 Miscellaneous services 1,226.5 Income on investments 34,816.0 Balance on merchandise transactions 17,792.00 Balance on services 1,974.80 Balance on investment income (33,657.40) Figure 16. Balance of Payments: Puerto Rico, 2009 Source: Puerto Rico Planning Board.

20 Recommendations:

21 Reduce Barriers to Job Creation and Labor Force Participation

22 Recommendations: Reduce Barriers to Job Creation and Labor Force Participation  youth sub-minimum wage  design of benefit programs

23 Recommendations: Reduce Barriers to Job Creation and Labor Force Participation  youth sub-minimum wage

24 Recommendations: Reduce Barriers to Job Creation and Labor Force Participation  youth sub-minimum wage  design of benefit programs Reform the Energy Industry

25 Recommendations: Reduce Barriers to Job Creation and Labor Force Participation  youth sub-minimum wage  design of benefit programs Reform the Energy Industry  Regulatory commission

26 Recommendations: Reduce Barriers to Job Creation and Labor Force Participation  youth sub-minimum wage  design of benefit programs Reform the Energy Industry  Regulatory commission Lower the Costs of Doing Business

27 Recommendations: Reduce Barriers to Job Creation and Labor Force Participation  youth sub-minimum wage  design of benefit programs Reform the Energy Industry  Regulatory commission Lower the Costs of Doing Business Foster Partnerships between Industry and Higher Education

28 Recommendations: Reduce Barriers to Job Creation and Labor Force Participation  youth sub-minimum wage  design of benefit programs Reform the Energy Industry  Regulatory commission Lower the Costs of Doing Business Foster Partnerships between Industry and Higher Education  promote innovation and commercialization of research

29 Recommendations: Reduce Barriers to Job Creation and Labor Force Participation  youth sub-minimum wage  design of benefit programs Reform the Energy Industry  Regulatory commission Lower the Costs of Doing Business Foster Partnerships between Industry and Higher Education  promote innovation and commercialization of research Promote Independent Policy Evaluation

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