Financing Green Energy and Technology Leapfrogging… Sohail Hasnie Asian Development Bank

Outline Disruptions and Climate Change Global Trends Regional opportunities for Kazakhstan

10 MB Disruption… Data Storage 1992 about $300 per MB Source: http://www.kotzendes-einhorn.de/blog/2011-06/the-hard-disk-youve-been-waiting-for-na-endlich/

16,000 MB $4.8 million 2015 But Free in 2017 16 GB or 16,000 MB @$300 per MB $4.8 million (would have been in 1992) But Free in 2017

Disruptive Technology $7,600 in 1977 Less than $40 in 2016

The Paradigm Shift #1 Generate your own

The Paradigm Shift #2 Energy Efficiency 60-80% savings Everywhere

The Paradigm Shift about 190 gm #3 Batteries 9.8 kg

Disruptive Technology https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/powerwall

Cost of storage Battery Cost $500 per kWh 10,000 cycles 500,00/10,000 5 cents per kWh per charge

1.21 C During 2016, global temperatures hit above 1880s averages. a new record high hottest atmosphere and oceans in 100,000 years.  https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-data-show-2016-warmest-year-on-record-globally

1 GtC = 1,000,000,000 tons

Disruptions are coming to the electricity sector!

http://reneweconomy. com http://reneweconomy.com.au/solar-efficiency-drive-demand-falls-in-australian-grid-86616/

https://www. theguardian https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/30/south-australia-to-get-1bn-solar-farm-and-worlds-biggest-battery

Opportunities for Kazakhstan

CASAREM: Central Asia-South Asia Regional Electricity Market

Sarawak Energy’s strategy of creating new domestic “bulk customer” market to absorb excess supply, may be an option for Kazakhstan Example: new power markets in traditional industries

MW

Sarawak Power’s Bulk Customers Industry Type Customer Demand (MW) Investment Manganese ferroalloy and ferrosilicon (340,000 MT) AML 1 & 2 270 $650 million First aluminum smelter (40,000 tons) Press Metal (Mukah) 200 $160 million Aluminum smelter (320,000 tons) (Samalaju) 480 $300+ million Ferroalloy smelting OM Holdings 500 $400 million Polycrystalline silicon (10,000 jobs) Tokuyama 1 & 2 340 $3 billion Polysilicon (250,000 tons) Cosmos 250 $1.6 billion Cement Asia Cement 50 $230 million Electric utilities, Indonesia PLN 230 $150 million TOTAL 2,320 > $5 billion More than 100,000 jobs

Solar wafer plant 15-50 MW $400 million 500 MW solar wafer 300 MW solar ignot 1,000 MW (final)

$5 billion investment ($1.5 billion subsidies) Example: new power markets in New industries

Potential New Energy Projects (potential investment of about $5 billion 2017-2023 period) Establish a high energy park provide guarantee to private investments and technical advice $2-$3 billion in new energy infrastructure (transmission and distribution) to support new customers $1 billion in renewable energy for additional 1,000 MW $500 million for rehabilitate existing transmission backbone for better reliability $300 million in energy efficiency to reduce demand by 1,000 MW

Second-life car batteries may bring electricity to millions

Opportunities for new technologies in CWRD energy sector Potential New Technology Projects Central and West Asia A. Power Generation Technology Power form biomass and municipal waste √ Higher efficiency solar power: (on-grid and rooftop) Floating and modular systems for remote areas Modernization of existing power plants B. Power distribution systems   Remote mini and micro-grid (solar and hybrid)   √  Off-grid DC solar kit (with efficient DC appliances)   C. Energy Conservation and Energy Efficiency Demand responses: improved sensors, smart meters Super efficient lighting, appliances and HVAC Robotics and automation (small industries) D. Storage  On-grid batteries for system optimum system design Batteries for better integration of wind and solar Hydrogen as seasonal storage and fuel cell vehicles B. Electric Vehicles Government fleet and public transport Public fleet: buses, trucks and tricycles or auto-rickshaws These are the types of new technologies that our clients have shown interest in.

Mobilizing Finance 4 Next Steps: 2017 CAREC EIF will in Astana (Kazakhstan18-19 July 2017) Theme: “Financing Future Energy” Expecting 450 delegates 4