Arlington Public Schools Superintendent’s Seminars Changing Occupational and Workforce Requirements in Northern Virginia and the Washington Metropolitan Area Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University April 24, 2012 GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Population Growth by Decade Washington MSA 1900 - 2010 Thousands Source: US Census and GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analyis

Population in the Washington MSA By Sub-State Area, 1900 - 2010 1000s Northern VA Suburban MD D.C. Source: US Census and GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Growth in Jobs, 1980 - 2010 1000s Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Washington Metro Area, 1950 – 2010 (Percent Share of Total) Changing Job Patterns Washington Metro Area, 1950 – 2010 (Percent Share of Total) SERVICES FEDERAL GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Share of Washington Area Economy 1970-2010 Northern Virginia Suburban MD % of GRP D.C. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7

How Has the Washington Area Economy Performed Through This Business Cycle? GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Job Change Washington MSA Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 Source: BLS March 2012 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: 2010 –2011 Washington + 32,600 Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Feb 2011 – Feb 2012 Washington + 36,900 Source: BLS March 2012 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector 2010 – 2011 Washington MSA Total = 32,600 (000s) Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector Feb 2011 – Feb 2012 Washington MSA Total = 36,900 (000s) Source: BLS March 2012 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Job Change Northern Virginia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 Source: BLS March 2012 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector Feb 2011 – Feb 2012 Northern Virginia Total 18,100 (000s) Source: BLS March 2012 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Unemployment Rate 10.2 – DC 8.7 – U.S. 6.0 – SMD 5.8 – MSA 4.7 - NVA Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted GMU Center for Regional Analysis

2010 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12.0 % Other Federal 10.7 % Fed Wages & Salaries 10.0% Total Federal 39.8% Procurement 19.1% Local Serving Activities 34.8% Other 1.5% Assn 1.8% Health/Ed. 4.5% Hosp. 2.1% Int’l 3.5% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

What is the Near-Term Outlook of the Washington Area Economy? GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 19

GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015 % Washington U.S. Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

2015 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 14.0 % Other Federal 9.5 % Fed Wages & Salaries 9.4 % Total Federal 36.3% Procurement 17.4% Local Serving Activities 34.2% Int’l 3.5% Hosp. 2.5% Other 1.5% Assn 2.0 % Health/Ed. 6.0 % Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis

What is the Long-Term Outlook of the Washington Area Economy? GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Revised Washington Metropolitan Area Growth Potential Summary: 2010 – 2030 (in billions of 2010 $s,jobs in thousands) Indicator 2010 2030 Change GRP Growth $425 b $774.8 82.3% Net Job Growth 3,788.8 4,842.7 1,053.9/ 27.8% Replacement Job Growth 1,802.8 47.6% HH Growth 2,068.1 2,622.3 554.2/ 26.8% GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Washington Metropolitan Area: Major Sources of Workforce Demand 2010-2020 Occupation Total Openings % of Total % Change Sales Occupations 163,055 11.3 40.3 Office Admin Support 158,640 10.9 32.1 Business and Financial 146,380 10.1 42.1 Management Occupations 123,973 8.6 37.2 Computer, Math and Sci 110,685 7.6 46.8 Food Prep & Serving 102,098 7.0 46.0 Totals 804,831 55.5 39.5 GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Washington Metropolitan Area: Major Sources of Net New Jobs 2010-2020 Occupation Net New % of Total % Change Business and Financial 79,974 14.1 23.0 Computer, Math and Sci 68,612 12.1 29.0 Sales & Related Occup. 50,203 8.9 12.4 Office Admin Support 48,597 8.6 9.8 Management Occupations 45,725 8.1 13.7 Health Care (all) 43,819 7.7 21.1 Education & Training 35,186 6.2 16.0 Totals 372,116 65.7 16.6 GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Growth Potential in Northern Virginia, 2010 – 2020 Net New 1,509.1 (in thousands) Type of Job 2010 2020 Change Net New 1,509.1 1,812.4 303.3 Replacement 346.4 All Openings 649.7 GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Major Sources of Workforce Demand In Northern Virginia, 2010-2020 Occupation Total Openings % Change Management analysts 23,150 61.9 Retail sales persons 14,827 38.5 Cashiers 13,974 53.0 Computer systems analysts 12,640 53.1 General and operational managers 11,992 39.6 Waiters and waitresses 11,639 65.8 Computer software eng., applications 11,616 54.2 Office clerks, general 11,132 33.7 Computer software eng., systems 10,525 50.5 Totals* 121,495 48.7 *These 9 occupations employed 249,324 workers in 2010. GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Major Sources of Net New Jobs In Northern Virginia, 2010-2020 Occupation Net New % Change Management analysts 16,734 44.8 Computer software eng. applica. 9,817 45.8 Computer software eng. systems 9,332 44.7 Computer systems analysts 7,509 31.5 Network systems/data commun. 7,392 59.9 Office clerks 6,632 20.1 Real estate agents 6,476 27.4 Accountants and auditors 5,656 28.0 Network computer systems adm 5,509 43.1 Totals* 75,057 36.6 These 9 occupations employed 205,119 workers in 2010. GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Educational Levels of Net New and Replacement Jobs, NVA: 2010 – 2020 (percent) Educational Level All Jobs Net New Replacement Bachelor’s or more 39.0% 256,687 49.0% 148,537 31.0% 108,150 Associate’s 4.0% 23,559 12,534 3.0% 11,025 HS/Voc. Ed. GED/OJT 55.0% 369,384 46.0% 142,191 63.0% 227,193 GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Resident Labor Resources in Northern Virginia, 2010-2020 Year Resident Labor Force Potential Resident Population* Participation Rate Labor Resources 2010 998,382 x .784 = 782,731 2020 1,142,976 x .789 = 901,808 Change 144,594 119,077 Percent 14.5 15.2 *population of primary workforce age, 25-64 year GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Workforce Development Issues All local jurisdictions will need a greater number of workers than can be generated from within the existing population; The changing skills requirements of future jobs will compound the magnitude of the shortage of workers needed to fill future local jobs; Upskilling the existing workforce and increasing labor force participation at all ages; and, Increasing high school graduation rates and retaining and redeploying older workers. Implications GMU Center for Regional Analysis

cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 32