1. 2016-2026 Long-Term Industry and Occupational Projections
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Paul Daniels, Statistician and Analyst
Virginia Employment Commission

2. Background

3. A Brief History of Industry and Occupational Projections
TEGL 1-16 outlines the Virginia Employment Commission’s need to produce state and local projections
Funding provided by Workforce Information Grant
Coordinated nation-wide by the Projections Managing Partnership
Short-term (2 year) projections done annually
Long-term (10 year) projections produced biennially
Data sources: CPS, OES, CES, QCEW, LEWIS, BLS (National Change Factors and staffing patterns)
Uses include: Development of high demand lists, training programs, funding requests, community development, industry development, business acquisition, and much more

4. New Methodology for 2018
Separations-based methodology implemented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, ending use of Replacements methodology, in late 2017
Methodology began with statewide short-term projections, and national long-term projections
Purpose (1): Estimate the need to replace workers who leave their occupation
Purpose (2): Account for diverse job changes in an evolving workforce with low unemployment

5. Comparing Old and New Methods
Replacements
Separations
Openings recorded when an individual of one age cohort leaves an occupation and is replaced by a worker from a different age cohort
Assumes one occupation held throughout career
Disadvantages smaller occupations
Total Openings broken down to Replacements and Growth
Openings recorded when a worker leaves the workforce, or transfers from one major occupation to another
Accounts for career paths and a dynamic labor market
Reflects potential for openings and replacements
Total Openings broken down to Transfers, Exits, and Change

6. Replacements Versus Separations
Anthony: 44 year career, 1 opening created
Allie: 44 year career, 4 openings created
Paper Route
Short term job, with primarily one age cohort moving in and out
Newspaper Journalist
Primary Career
Occupation held until retirement
Replace by younger age cohort
Bank Teller (5 years)
College Student (4 years)
Accountant (8 years)
HR Specialist (15 years)
Financial Manager (12 years)

7. 2016-2026 Long-Term Industry Projections

8. Total Employment Change
Key Findings
Fastest Growing Major Industries
Industry
2016 Base Employment
2026 Projected Employment
Annual Growth
Total Employment Change
Health Care and Social Assistance
441,229
554,380
2.31%
113,151
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
409,398
482,019
1.65%
72,621
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
54,776
62,677
1.36%
7,901
Administrative Support and Waste Management
229,537
256,925
1.13%
27,388
Educational Services
354,347
395,780
1.11%
41,433

9. Key Findings, continued
Fastest Declining Major Industries
Industry
2016 Base Employment
2026 Projected Employment
Annual Growth
Total Employment Change
Mining, Quarrying, Oil and Gas Extraction
5,756
5,205
-1.0%
-551
Manufacturing
231,173
217,890
-0.59%
-13,283
Information
67,902
66,875
-0.15%
-1,027
Public Administration
59,188
59,044
-0.02%
-144

10. 2016-2026 Long-Term Occupational Projections
Consider the Question

11. Top 10 Occupations by Projected Employment
Retail Salespersons
125,557
Cashiers
110,536
Food Preparation and Service Workers
110,410
General Office Clerks
89,036
Waiters and Waitresses
77,190
Occupation
Annual Projected Employment
Registered Nurses
74,128
Janitors and Cleaners
73,134
Personal Care Aides
72,069
Management Analysts
68,510
Customer Service Representatives
68,040

12. Top 10 Occupations by Annual Growth Rate
Personal Care Aides
5.13%
Home Health Aides
4.24%
Physician Assistants
3.77%
Nurse Practitioners
3.69%
Statisticians
3.67%
Occupation
Annual Growth
Information Security Analysts
3.53%
Operations Research Analysts
3.16%
Physical Therapist Assistants
3.10%
Marriage and Family Therapists
3.03%
Medical Assistants
3.01%

13. Top 10 Occupations by Annual Openings
Cashiers
20,518
Food Preparation and Serving Workers
20,171
Retail Salespersons
17,972
Waiters and Waitresses
14,511
Personal Care Aides*
10,937
Occupation
Annual Openings
General Office Clerks
10,368
Janitors and Cleaners
9,646
Customer Service Representatives
8,766
Stock Clerks and Order Fillers
7,987
Laborers and Movers
7,506

14. 2016-2026 Projected Skills, Knowledge and Education

15. In-Demand Skills by Occupational Dominance
O*NET Skill
2026 Projected Employment
Projected Employment Difference
Growth
Number of
Occupations
Active Listening
1,036,621
113,462
1.17%
184
Speaking
998,806
115,019
1.23%
182
Reading Comprehension
562,527
67,407
1.28%
153
Critical Thinking
415,907
58,828
1.54%
119
Writing
272,560
32,348
1.27% 79
Instructing
191,284
23,334
1.31% 51
Social Perceptiveness
378,701
45,090 48
Judgement and Decision Making
213,180
32,095
1.65% 35
Learning Strategies
153,245
18,396
1.29% 33
Complex Problem Solving
95,061
13,437 31

16. High Demand Skills by Growth Rate
O*NET Skill
2026 Projected Employment
Projected Employment Difference
Growth
Number of Detailed Occupations
Active Learning
30,076
6,084
2.29% 23
Programming
61,823
11,884
2.16% 4
Mathematics
26,849
4,916
2.04% 9
Systems Evaluation
80,094
13,678
1.89% 3
Judgment and Decision Making
213,180
32,095
1.65% 35
Service Orientation
201,356
30,061
1.63% 17
Time Management
67,837
9,898
1.59%
Critical Thinking
415,907
58,828
1.54%
119
Complex Problem Solving
95,061
13,437 31
Science
34,197
4,727
1.50%

17. Education-Based Projections
Educational Attainment
2016 Base Employment
2026 Projected Employment
Employment Change
Growth
Number of Detailed Occupations
Master’s Degree
75,718
93,191
17,473
2.10% 38
Doctoral or Professional Degree
103,938
121,473
17,535
1.57% 63
Bachelor’s Degree
1,011,520
1,153,352
141,832
1.32%
175
Post-secondary Non-degree Award
249,640
284,282
34,642
1.31% 46
Associate’s Degree
101,822
114,162
12,340
1.15% 48
No Formal Education
953,907
1,029,247
75,340
0.76%
104
High School or Equivalent
1,502,979
1,615,214
112,235
0.72%
334
Some College
97,872
104,182
6,310
0.63% 5

18. Questions? Projections Contacts: Paul Daniels: (804) 786-8378 or
Ann Lang: (804) or